Will AI Populism Decide the 2028 Election? | Jasmine Sun

Key Concepts

• AI Populism: A worldview where AI is perceived not merely as a technological advancement, but as an elite political project that threatens the social fabric, economic mobility, and democratic agency, necessitating resistance.
• The Permanent Underclass: A term describing a segment of the population that may become economically redundant and socially marginalized due to AI-driven labor displacement.
• Lump of Labor Fallacy: An economic theory suggesting that there is a fixed amount of work to be done; critics of AI populism use this to argue that technology creates new demand and jobs rather than destroying them.
• Jevons Paradox: The observation that as technology increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, the total consumption of that resource may increase rather than decrease.
• Comparative Advantage: The strategy of focusing on human-centric skills (relational labor, physical presence, trust-building) that AI cannot yet replicate, ensuring humans remain complements to, rather than substitutes for, technology.
• Decelerationism (Dels): A political stance advocating for the slowing down or halting of AI development to mitigate societal risks and labor displacement.

1. The Rise of AI Populism

Jasmine Sun identifies AI populism as a rapidly rising political force in the U.S. While polling data (e.g., Blue Rose Research) currently ranks AI as the 29th most important issue, it is the fastest-rising concern. The movement is unique because it creates unlikely coalitions—bringing together family-first conservatives, antitrust advocates, and environmentalists.

• Political Opportunism: Politicians like Bernie Sanders are leveraging AI as a "shiny new object" to anchor long-standing grievances regarding wealth inequality, corporate power, and the cost of living.
• The "Bogeyman" Effect: AI serves as a convenient target for broader societal frustrations, similar to how "China" was used in the previous decade to justify various policy agendas.

2. Labor Displacement and Economic Anxiety

A central tension exists between the "abundance" narrative (AI as a deflationary force that makes services like healthcare and education cheaper) and the "displacement" reality.

• The "Steel Man" for Job Loss: Sun argues that AI breaks the historical link between productivity and human labor. Unlike previous industrial revolutions, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) could potentially produce software, therapy, and creative output without human intervention.
• Near-Term Reality: Sun predicts that 5–10% of the economy (software engineering, copywriting, digital illustration, management consulting) is highly susceptible to near-term automation. She notes that retraining is often overestimated by economists; displaced workers, particularly older ones, often struggle to transition, leading to deep-seated political resentment.

3. Political Violence and Institutional Distrust

The discussion highlights a disturbing trend of political violence directed at tech leaders (e.g., attacks on Sam Altman’s home).

• Nihilistic Politics: Sun suggests that these acts are committed by "chronically online" individuals who feel the democratic system is broken and that they have no other channel to exert influence.
• The "Terminator" Logic: These individuals often view themselves as "stopping" an existential threat, rationalizing violence as a necessary preemptive strike against a future they believe will be catastrophic.

4. The "Grand Bargain" Framework

Sun proposes that to avoid a binary of "Techno-Capitalist Elites" vs. "Anti-Tech Populists," policymakers must facilitate a new social contract.

• Bargaining Tables: Drawing on 20th-century labor history, Sun suggests that automation was managed successfully when unions and corporations negotiated wage guarantees and productivity sharing.
• Policy Interventions:
  • Extended Unemployment Insurance: Moving beyond the standard six-month window to accommodate longer retraining periods.
  • Decoupling Benefits: Reforming healthcare and benefits to support a workforce that will likely shift toward freelancing and small-business ownership rather than traditional W2 employment.
  • Shortened Work Weeks: As AI capabilities expand, reducing the work week (e.g., to 20–30 hours) could preserve human purpose and leverage in the economy.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The core takeaway is that AI is currently a "blank slate" for societal frustration. While the long-term economic impact remains debated, the immediate political danger is the lack of a legitimate channel for citizens to influence the direction of AI development. Sun concludes that the most robust path forward for individuals is to identify their comparative advantage—the "jagged edges" of AI where human trust, physical presence, and nuanced judgment remain essential. Without a "grand bargain" that ensures the benefits of AI are distributed, the political backlash—ranging from local data center protests to extreme violence—is likely to intensify as the 2028 election cycle approaches.