Will 92-year old Paul Biya extend his grip on power in Cameroon? | DW News

Key Concepts Cameroonian Presidential Election, Paul Biya, Incumbency, Vote Buying, Opposition Disruption, Electoral Credibility, Political Stability vs. Change, Youth Unemployment, Corruption.

The Upcoming Presidential Election and Paul Biya's Decades-Long Rule

Cameroon is preparing for its presidential election on October 12th, where voters will decide the country's leadership. The incumbent, 92-year-old President Paul Biya, currently the world's oldest non-royal head of state, is seeking to extend his four-decade grip on power. Biya has ruled since 1982 and faces nearly a dozen challengers. Critics, however, question whether this election will be a genuine democratic test or merely a formality, given the historical context of his rule. If he wins, Biya would be eligible to remain in office until he is 99 years old.

President Biya's Campaign Strategy and Perceived Certainty of Victory

President Paul Biya exhibits strong confidence in his re-election, a sentiment supported by his minimalist campaign approach. Since announcing his candidacy, he has held only one public campaign event, speaking in Maroua, where he stated, "My aim, my dear compatriots, is that every young person, wherever they are, should have the opportunities to easily find a job or become an entrepreneur." This "tried and tested method" of a single event followed by a return to the presidential palace was also employed in the previous election.

His confidence appears to stem from several factors:

• Vote Buying and Enticement: Videos circulating for years on social media, and recent footage from a campaign event in Boya, show young people being "handed cash in exchange for their participation." One individual confirmed receiving a "three t-shirt," equivalent to "about €5." Attendees are often enticed by "food and money" to attend ruling party events.
• Die-Hard Supporters: Despite a perceived lack of enthusiasm among some attendees at pre-election rallies, Biya maintains a base of "die hard followers." These supporters sing his praises at rallies, even when he is not physically present (e.g., the Prime Minister attended in his stead).
• Rationale for Continued Rule: Supporters articulate a belief in Biya's continued leadership, using the analogy: "if you have a cocoa tree and it produces cocoa beans, the older the tree, the better the fruit... The older it is, the more mature it is and the better its yield." They trust President Biya because "maturity comes with knowledge, wisdom and a clear vision of what he intends to do for Cameroon."

The Opposition's Challenges and Arguments for Change

The political landscape for the opposition is fraught with difficulties, particularly for Biya's main challenger, Maurice Kamto. Kamto's pre-election gathering was "disrupted by police," and he was subsequently "prevented from leaving his home" and "barred from running for the election" months later. Rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, have criticized Kamto's exclusion, arguing that it "undermines the credibility and fairness of the election."

With Kamto out of the race, 11 other candidates, including two former ministers, are competing, which effectively "divid[es] the anti-Bia vote." The opposition broadly agrees that Biya is "no longer fit to lead the country" and that "we need change." Their arguments are rooted in several critical issues:

• Economic Stagnation: "Cameroon carries a lot of wealth that's not exploited," and even when exploited, "we do not see the benefits."
• High Unemployment: "a lot of young people don't work," despite a significant number of intellectuals.
• Corruption and Social Decay: The opposition highlights pervasive "corruption," "banditry," and "filth," emphasizing that "there are so many things to be fixed."

Conclusion

Despite the significant criticisms regarding electoral fairness, the suppression of opposition, and widespread socio-economic issues, President Paul Biya is widely "expected to win the election." This outcome would extend his already lengthy tenure, potentially making him the head of state until he is 99 years old, underscoring the deeply entrenched nature of his political power in Cameroon. The election appears poised to reinforce the status quo, despite calls for fundamental change from a fragmented opposition.