Why Westminster needs to think differently about devolution | This Is Why

Key Concepts

• Devolution: The statutory delegation of powers from the central government (Westminster) to subnational entities (Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland).
• Nationalist Parties: Political entities (SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin) advocating for greater autonomy or full independence from the United Kingdom.
• Multinational State: A sovereign state that comprises two or more nations or cultural groups.
• Border Poll: A referendum on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland, specifically regarding potential reunification with the Republic of Ireland.
• Unitary State: A system where the central government holds supreme authority, often contrasted with federalist models.
• Identity Politics vs. Everyday Politics: The intersection of national identity and practical governance (e.g., public services, healthcare, infrastructure).

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1. The Current Political Landscape

The United Kingdom is experiencing a significant shift as nationalist parties now hold power in all three devolved nations:

• Wales: Plaid Cymru leads a minority government. While they have ruled out an independence referendum in the current term, they are pushing for a settlement similar to Scotland’s, including control over justice, transport, and the Crown Estate.
• Scotland: The Scottish National Party (SNP) maintains a strong minority government. Political strategist Andy Maciver suggests that a shift in leadership (from Nicola Sturgeon to John Swinney) may prioritize public service reform and economic growth, which could inadvertently accelerate the independence movement if the government performs well.
• Northern Ireland: Sinn Féin is the largest party, with First Minister Michelle O’Neill leading a renewed push for a border poll.

2. The "Illness" of the Democratic Settlement

Professor Michael Keating argues that the rise of these parties is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a global trend: a loss of faith in established political parties and the inability of traditional nation-states to address modern social and economic challenges.

• The "Britishness" Decline: Traditional pillars of unity—the monarchy, the British Empire, and the legacy of WWII—no longer hold the same unifying power.
• Westminster’s Disconnect: While the periphery of the UK has undergone massive political evolution, Westminster remains largely unchanged, operating under a "unitary state" mindset that ignores the distinct political realities of the devolved nations.

3. The Role of Devolution and Brexit

• Devolution as a Catalyst: Originally intended as a compromise to satisfy nationalist demands, devolution has instead made the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd the primary reference points for citizens. People now view these institutions as the natural providers of healthcare, education, and social security.
• Brexit’s Impact: Brexit acted as a major disruptor. In Northern Ireland, it complicated the peace settlement by creating a border issue. In Scotland, the majority "Remain" vote provided a boost to the independence movement, shifting support from approximately 45% to 50%.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The "Category Error": Professor Keating warns against equating a vote for a nationalist party (like the SNP or Plaid Cymru) directly with a vote for independence. Many voters support these parties for their governance performance rather than their constitutional goals.
• The "Why Stay?" Question: Keating posits that the fundamental question for the UK is no longer "Why do people want to leave?" but rather "What is the compelling reason to stay?" He argues that the Unionist side has failed to articulate a vision that respects local identities while offering tangible benefits.
• Complexity of Independence: Survey data indicates that even those who support independence are often hesitant about the practical implications, such as adopting a new currency or changing the head of state, suggesting a preference for a "multi-level" governance system rather than total separation.

5. Notable Quotes

• Professor Michael Keating: "The United Kingdom has always been a multinational state... but now it's very much about politics. And we have really very different political systems."
• Professor Michael Keating: "The question in Scotland is why do some people want to stay? What is the reason for staying? ... That’s where the union has failed."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The United Kingdom is currently a "lopsided" state. While the devolved nations have embraced complex, multi-level governance, Westminster continues to view the country through a traditional, centralized lens. The rise of nationalist parties is a symptom of a broader democratic malaise and a search for alternatives to a failing status quo. The future of the Union depends on whether Westminster can transition toward a more federalist or collaborative model that acknowledges the distinct political identities of its constituent parts, or whether the lack of a compelling "reason to stay" will lead to an eventual fragmentation of the state.