Why we ignore the environmental cost of war | Ali Borhani | TEDxSurreyUniversity

Key Concepts

• Emissions Exceptionalism: The tendency to exclude military operations and war-related destruction from climate change reporting and carbon footprint calculations.
• The Killing Curve: A term coined by the speaker to describe the correlation between military conflict and rising global carbon emissions, contrasted with the "Keeling Curve."
• Embodied Carbon: The total greenhouse gas emissions associated with the construction of infrastructure (cement, steel, etc.) that are released during both initial building and subsequent reconstruction after destruction.
• Scope 1, 2, and 3 of War: A framework proposed by the speaker: Scope 1 (the fire/combat), Scope 2 (the ash/destruction), and Scope 3 (the breath/reconstruction).
• Global Conflict Carbon Compass: A proposed digital dashboard using AI and satellite imagery to track and price the carbon emissions of military operations.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

The speaker argues that military operations are the "biggest climate culprit" that remains largely ignored in global climate discourse. While humanity focuses on consumer habits, coal, and cars, the massive carbon footprint of war—including fuel consumption, ammunition, and the destruction of infrastructure—is omitted from official statistics.

• The Statistical Gap: Current peacetime estimates place military emissions at approximately 5.5% of global totals. The speaker argues this is a gross underestimation that ignores drills, maneuvers, and the massive carbon cost of rebuilding destroyed cities.
• The "Liberal Hegemony Sauna": A metaphor for the last 35 years of global military dominance, where the world is "locked in" and heating up due to unchecked military emissions.

2. Real-World Applications and Examples

• Historical Context: The speaker references the Iran-Iraq war (1980–1988), noting the personal toll of war and the lucrative nature of the arms industry.
• Military Operations: The U.S. is cited as having conducted 69 military operations, coups, or regime changes in the last 80 years.
• Destruction of Infrastructure: The speaker highlights the "biblical scenes" of destruction in cities like Mosul, Mariupol, and others, noting that if cement and concrete were a nation, they would be the world's fourth-largest emitter.

3. Methodologies and Frameworks

• The Three Scopes of War:
  • Scope 1 (The Fire): Direct emissions from military hardware (jets, tanks, naval ships).
  • Scope 2 (The Ash): The immediate environmental impact of destruction and bombardment.
  • Scope 3 (The Breath): The long-term carbon cost of rebuilding cities, including the energy-intensive production of steel and concrete.
• AI-Driven Simulation: The speaker proposes using Large Language Models (LLMs) and satellite imagery to create "Large Liability Models." By leveraging AI (similar to how DeepMind solved protein folding), we can simulate and quantify the carbon cost of conflicts, removing the excuse of "uncertainty."

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Climate Hypocrisy: The speaker challenges the global community for lecturing the Global South on emissions while ignoring the "internationally undeterred devastation" caused by military might.
• National Security vs. Global Insecurity: The speaker rejects the "national security" argument used to hide military emissions data, arguing that the climate crisis is a collective global insecurity that outweighs the need for military secrecy.
• The Arsonist in the Room: The speaker asserts that we have the data and the technology to measure these emissions; the only missing element is the political will to stop "climate theater."

5. Notable Quotes

• "Ironically, every time the Keeling curve goes up, the killing curve inflates as well."
• "We measure our footprints in our coffee, in our commute, but it seems like some emissions are more equal than others."
• "The worst thing we do in statistics is that we treat statistics the same way a drunkard would use a lamppost—we lean on it rather than looking at the light it can shed." (Attributed to Andrew Lang).
• "We are not afraid of your axe or the sharpness of its blade. We are always surprised and always ashamed that the handle of the axe is one of our own." (Closing parable).

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The speaker concludes that the world is currently engaged in "climate theater," focusing on minor consumer adjustments while ignoring the massive carbon output of global military-industrial complexes. By utilizing modern AI, satellite technology, and a transparent "Global Conflict Carbon Compass," humanity can move from obfuscation to simulation. The ultimate takeaway is a call to end "emissions exceptionalism" and hold military powers accountable for their environmental impact, recognizing that the tools for change are already in our hands.