Why undecided voters could pick Bangladesh's next government | DW News

Bangladesh Election 2024: A Nation at a Crossroads

Key Concepts:

• Awami League (AL): Previously the ruling party, led by Sheikh Hasina, now banned from the election. Historically associated with secularism.
• Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP): A major opposition party, vying for power after years of exclusion.
• Jamaat-e-Islami (Jamaat): An Islamist political party, competing for support and allied with the BNP. Historically viewed with suspicion due to perceived ties with Pakistan.
• Youth Uprising (2024): The protests that led to the removal of Sheikh Hasina’s government. Driven largely by students and ordinary citizens.
• First-Time Voters: A significant demographic (41 million) with potentially decisive influence in the election.
• Election Interference/Rigging: A major concern, with allegations of past manipulation under the Awami League regime.
• Binary Political Culture: The limited choice of political options available to voters, lacking strong third-party representation.

I. Political Landscape & Voter Sentiment

The election marks Bangladesh’s first opportunity to vote without the Awami League in power since the 2024 uprising that ousted Sheikh Hasina. The Awami League’s ban has created a power vacuum, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami competing for support. Voters in the Old Dhaka (Haka) neighborhood express relief at the prospect of a “free” election, citing past “persecution” under the Awami League. Many express hope for a BNP victory, stating, “If this is a fair election, God willing, the BNP will win many seats and form the government.”

However, a sense of disillusionment also exists. Some voters feel the choice is limited, stating, “People like us are basically being forced into a limited choice. There aren't enough options.” Despite official results showing consistent Awami League wins in the area since 2008, finding openly declared Awami League supporters proves difficult, with many fearing retribution for expressing their allegiance. The atmosphere is described as peaceful since Hasina’s deposition, but reports of violence against Awami League supporters persist.

II. The Awami League’s Diminished Support & Fears of Reprisal

Finding individuals willing to admit past support for the Awami League is challenging. Muhammad Kon is the first person interviewed who acknowledges voting for both the Awami League and the BNP in the past, reflecting a pragmatic approach to voting based on the prevailing political climate.

A dedicated Awami League supporter, agreeing to an interview only with his face concealed, expresses fear of repercussions for his past support of Sheikh Hasina. He states that Awami League supporters would overwhelmingly reject the Jamaat-e-Islami due to a “historic animosity,” describing Jamaat as “not a party from Bangladesh. They are supporting from Pakistan.” He also suggests potential obstacles for Awami League supporters attempting to vote, though he denies replicating the alleged tactics used by Hasina’s regime against opponents. He believes those who can vote will likely support the BNP.

III. The Role of the Youth & the 2024 Uprising

Student leaders Abdul Kadir and Anika Hassina, key organizers of the 2024 protest movement at Dhaka University, are cautiously optimistic about the election’s fairness. They emphasize that the uprising was “ignited and led by the students and it was the ordinary people” and that existing parties are now under pressure to address the aspirations of the protesters. Kadir states, “Look, no political party led the July uprising…They know if they ignore these aspirations, they will be thrown into the dust bin of history. Just like the Awami League.”

Anika Hassina expresses disappointment at the lack of female candidates, noting that only around 4% of candidates are women. She also laments the return to a “binary political culture” with a lack of viable third-party options. The election features 41 million first-time voters, many of whom were previously disenfranchised or too young to vote. Some report being turned away from polling booths under the Hasina regime.

IV. Concerns & Expectations of First-Time Voters

First-time voters, particularly students at Dhaka University, express excitement about participating in a potentially “free and fair” election after nearly two decades. However, some harbor doubts about significant change, leading them to abstain from voting. Common desires among young voters include freedom of speech, a corruption-free government, increased focus on education, and, for some, a reduction in Indian influence. A desire for peaceful relations with neighboring countries is also expressed.

V. The NCP Alliance & Disillusionment

The youth protest movement initially spawned the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), but its alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami led to an exodus of young protesters who felt their values were compromised. Despite this setback, there remains hope that the pressure exerted by the youth movement will influence the future actions of any governing party.

VI. Election Watch & Key Indicators

The DW special correspondent, Nimisha Jazwal, reports a relatively quiet atmosphere in Dhaka on the eve of the election, with a two-day national holiday declared to encourage voter turnout. Campaigning ceased yesterday morning, but the city remains adorned with campaign posters. Jazwal notes that voter turnout will be a key indicator of enthusiasm and the success of the BNP and Jamaat in convincing voters to participate. Early indications suggest a close contest between the BNP and Jamaat.

Notable Quotes:

• “We were under extreme persecution. After 17 years, we’re now doing better. Our prayer to Allah is that BNP will be victorious and we will come to power.” – Voter in Old Dhaka.
• “Look, no political party led the July uprising. It was ignited and led by the students and it was the ordinary people who took to the streets to ensure its victory.” – Abdul Kadir, student leader.
• “Jamat is not a party from Bangladesh. They are supporting from Pakistan.” – Anonymous Awami League supporter.
• “They know if they ignore these aspirations, they will be thrown into the dust bin of history. Just like the Awami League.” – Abdul Kadir, student leader.

Conclusion:

The 2024 Bangladesh election represents a pivotal moment for the nation. While the removal of the Awami League has opened the door for a potentially more democratic process, significant challenges remain. Voter disillusionment, fears of reprisal, and the complex dynamics of the political landscape – particularly the alliance between the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami – create uncertainty. The high number of first-time voters and the lingering influence of the youth uprising add further complexity. Ultimately, the election’s outcome and the subsequent actions of the winning party will determine whether Bangladesh can truly embark on a path towards reform, stability, and a more inclusive political future.