Why Ukraine's recent attacks are not enough to change the course of the war | DW News

Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Recent Attacks and International Response

Key Concepts:

• Kirch Strait Bridge: Key supply route for Russia to Crimea.
• Strategic Bombers (Tu-22, Tu-95): Long-range bombers used by Russia, part of its nuclear deterrent.
• Sanctions: Economic measures to pressure Russia.
• NATO Collective Defense: The principle that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
• ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance): Gathering and processing information about enemy activities.
• Data Fusion: Combining data from multiple sources to create a comprehensive picture.

Attacks on the Kirch Bridge and Russian Airbases

• Kirch Bridge Attack: Ukraine claims to have damaged the foundations of the road and rail bridge linking Russia to Crimea. The SBU (Secret Service) released footage of a blast in the water. This bridge is a key access route for Russia to the peninsula, making it a prime target.
• Drone Attacks on Airbases: Ukraine launched drone attacks on multiple Russian air bases, some deep inside the country. These bases are used to launch cruise missiles at Ukraine by Tu-22 and Tu-95 bombers.
• Aircraft Damage: Ukraine claims to have destroyed 40 aircraft (a third of Russia's long-range strategic bombers). Russian propaganda bloggers dispute this, claiming fewer losses. Independent analysts suspect the actual number is between the two claims. Satellite images suggest 13 aircraft were destroyed or severely damaged.
• Impact of Losses: The Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers are not currently produced, meaning losses cannot be compensated for.

Strategic and Psychological Impact

• Damage to Morale: Analysts say the drone attacks have caused significant damage to morale in the Kremlin. Putin needs to maintain the "moral high ground" and the perception of military superiority.
• Technological Advancement: Ukraine's use of "cheap materials" to inflict damage is a blow to the prestige of the Russian army, military, FSB, and secret services.
• Putin's Reaction: The question is how Putin will react to these attacks.

US and International Response

• Ukrainian Delegation in the US: A senior Ukrainian delegation is in the US capital for talks on defense support.
• US Opportunity: The attacks on Russian air bases present an opportunity for the US to act.
• Bipartisan Support for Sanctions: There is growing bipartisan support in the Senate for sanctions against Russia.
• Trump's Stance: Trump's stance on sanctions remains unclear. He won't confirm if he supports the bill despite his ongoing frustrations with Putin.
• Leveraging Ukraine's Successes: Sanctions could leverage Ukraine's successes to strengthen the US hand at the negotiating table.
• Putin's Maximalist Aims: Public statements from Yermac reiterate that Putin is continuing his maximalist aims regardless of these attacks.
• Germany's Role: Germany's Chancellor Fred Matz is traveling to the US to meet with President Trump and discuss the war in Ukraine.
• Economic Sanctions: Only the US can pull the "big economic sanction trigger" because of the dollar's dominance in global oil and gas transactions.
• European Support: Europe is increasingly willing to step in with financial and military support, and a presence in a post-ceasefire Ukraine.
• Defense Meeting in Brussels: A defense meeting is happening in Brussels, chaired by Germany and the UK.

Analysis of the Attacks' Significance

• Contribution to NATO Defense: Ukraine's destruction of a significant portion of Russia's strategic bombers is a major contribution to NATO's collective defense, diminishing Russia's capacity, including in the nuclear domain.
• Moral Booster for Ukraine: The attacks are an important moral booster for Ukraine after weeks of missile and drone attacks.
• War of Resistance: This war is a war of "resistance of minds" and psychology.
• Putin's Persistence: Putin's obsession and persistence will endure. He still sees some progress on the ground, even at a huge cost.
• Limited Impact on Trajectory: The attacks are part of a long effort to weaken the other side, but are not enough to change the overall trajectory of the war.
• US Intervention Needed: What would make a big difference is if the United States truly and seriously steps in with sanctions that can hurt Russia's war economy.
• European Support for Ukraine's Operations: Europeans need to look at how they can assemble the backbone for Ukraine to be able to do this kind of operation in terms of ISR, situational awareness, and data fusion.

Conclusion

The recent Ukrainian attacks on the Kirch Bridge and Russian airbases represent a significant blow to Russia's military capabilities and morale. While these attacks provide a moral boost for Ukraine and demonstrate its innovative capabilities, they are unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of the war without more decisive intervention, particularly through impactful economic sanctions from the United States. Furthermore, the need for sustained European support in bolstering Ukraine's operational capabilities, especially in areas like intelligence and data fusion, is crucial for Ukraine's continued resistance.