Why Ukraine keeps fighting for Pokrovsk and what losing it would mean | DW News

Here's a comprehensive summary of the provided YouTube video transcript:

Key Concepts

• Pokrovsk: A city in the Donetsk region, currently at the epicenter of fighting.
• Gray Zone: Areas within Pokrovsk where both Russian and Ukrainian forces operate, with unclear control.
• Encirclement/Surrounded: The risk of Ukrainian forces being trapped and cut off by Russian advances.
• Logistics: The importance of supply lines and how they are affected by territorial control.
• Strategic Gain: The military and political advantages a side gains from capturing or holding territory.
• Winter Warfare: The impact of freezing temperatures and muddy conditions on military operations.
• Drones: Unmanned aerial vehicles used for reconnaissance and attack, significantly impacting battlefield awareness.
• Fortifications: Defensive structures built to strengthen positions.

The Situation in Pokrovsk

Pokrovsk, located approximately 500 kilometers southeast of Kyiv, is the current focal point of intense fighting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Russia is reportedly committing significant resources to capture the city, with commanders facing pressure from the Kremlin for a swift and substantial victory. While Russia has made incremental gains in surrounding rural areas, the last major city to fall to Russian troops was Avdiivka in February 2024.

The control of Pokrovsk is complex and difficult to verify independently due to the danger for journalists on the ground. Information is primarily derived from fragmented videos and images shared on platforms like Telegram, which are then analyzed for verification against landmarks and chronological accuracy. Both sides often overstate their territorial control.

Most analysts describe the downtown area of Pokrovsk as a "gray zone," meaning both Russian and Ukrainian forces may operate in these areas, though not necessarily simultaneously. There are credible reports of Ukrainian units still occupying government buildings in the city center, even as Russian forces operate around them.

Control and Analysis of Pokrovsk

Yuri Butusov, a prominent Ukrainian military journalist and vocal critic of the current Ukrainian military leadership, who is now serving in the military, provided insights. According to Butusov and other Ukrainian analysts on Telegram, Ukraine retains control over significant portions of the northern half of Pokrovsk, particularly north of the railway line. Russia is reportedly increasing its control in the southern parts of the city. The area between these two zones is considered the gray zone where both sides are active.

Risk of Encirclement and Ukrainian Troop Safety

A central concern for public opinion in Kyiv and across Ukraine is the risk of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk being encircled and taken prisoner. This fear is amplified by past experiences in battles for cities like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were captured due to delayed evacuation orders.

When examining the map, it's important to distinguish Pokrovsk from its satellite town, Myrnohrad. Pokrovsk is situated slightly to the west, offering more open access to Ukrainian-held territory. Myrnohrad, a few kilometers to the east, is already surrounded on three sides by Russian-held territory, placing it in a more precarious situation. All these areas are under attack by Russian drones and artillery, making any movement, even away from direct Russian control, dangerous, especially during daylight hours. Images of destroyed vehicles along routes in and out of these areas are circulating.

Frank Ledwidge, a former British military officer and now a professor at Portsmouth University, believes that Pokrovsk will likely fall. He shares the concern that Ukraine might repeat mistakes made in Bakhmut and Avdiivka by failing to adequately evacuate forces, leading to encirclement. While an exit route may exist, it is reportedly under Russian fire control and extremely dangerous.

Yuri Butusov offers a slightly different perspective, differentiating between Pokrovsk itself and outlying positions that are already difficult to supply and at risk of encirclement. However, he does not believe it is yet time to withdraw from the city.

Strategic Impact of Losing Pokrovsk

The loss of Pokrovsk is not expected to trigger a frontline collapse. Nine months ago, the city was significant for logistics, supplying Ukrainian positions to the south and east. However, those positions have since been lost, diminishing Pokrovsk's logistical importance for Ukraine.

The primary concern now is how Ukraine withdraws from Pokrovsk. A timely and orderly withdrawal that avoids large numbers of soldiers being taken prisoner is crucial. The effectiveness of new defenses being built to the north and west, intended to replace those within the city, will only be known when they are tested in battle.

Frank Ledridge suggests that after Pokrovsk, Russian forces might accelerate their advances along the front lines. While not a decisive or strategic defeat, the loss will have strategic and potentially political ramifications, placing Russia in a stronger position. He notes a pattern where, after major battles like Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Russian forces tended to advance more rapidly over the terrain behind these hard-fought cities.

General Syrskyi, the commander of Ukrainian forces, likely believes that holding onto these positions for as long as possible is beneficial for two reasons: delaying the strategic admission of defeat and allowing more time for further fortifications to be built. The protracted and slow nature of fighting in urban environments, often lasting weeks or months longer than anticipated, is a striking feature of this war. This is why Yuri Butusov advocates for Ukrainian troops to remain in the city for as long as possible.

Could Russian Advances Have Been Avoided?

Foreign experts often view the current situation as somewhat inevitable, given Russia's superior resources and manpower. They suggest Ukraine's best strategy is to cede territory as slowly as possible, inflict maximum losses on Russia, and hope Russia exhausts its resources and returns to negotiations.

However, within Ukraine, many critical voices argue that the military leadership, including General Syrskyi, could be more effective and coordinated. They contend that elite troops are often deployed at the last minute to address emerging problems, rather than identifying and resolving issues proactively.

Yuri Butusov believes that even with current resources, better coordination and more effective use of modern technology could enable Ukraine to halt Russian advances.

The Impact of Winter on Fighting

This region experiences muddy and freezing winters, leading to expectations of a slowdown in fighting in the coming months. While the first winter of the war (2022-23) saw a reduction in combat, this was likely due to resource exhaustion rather than solely temperature.

Interestingly, as autumn transitions into winter, the weather has recently aided Russian advances towards Pokrovsk. Images showed Russian infantry units advancing on foot and motorbikes, protected by fog that obscured them from Ukrainian drones. This type of cover has been beneficial for Russian operations in Pokrovsk. Historical analysis indicates that some significant battles have occurred even in the midst of winter.