Why Trump’s Rare Earth scramble makes no sense | If You're Listening | ABC In-depth

Key Concepts

Rare earth elements (REEs), critical materials, neodymium magnets, Chinese monopoly on REEs, environmental impact of REE mining, Lynas Corporation, Ukrainian mineral deposits, geopolitical implications of REE supply.

Rare Earth Elements: An Overview

The video explores the complex world of rare earth elements (REEs), clarifying that they are distinct from other critical materials like lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt. REEs, numbering 17 in total, are crucial for modern technology, found in devices ranging from smartphones and electric vehicles to military equipment like fighter jets and missiles. Neodymium, a commonly used REE, is essential for creating powerful magnets used in electric vehicle motors and hybrid vehicles.

The Illusion of Rarity and the Environmental Cost

Despite their name, REEs are not particularly rare in the Earth's crust; they are more abundant than silver. The challenge lies in their dispersed distribution and the environmentally damaging processes required to extract and refine them. The video demonstrates this by showing an attempt to extract neodymium from backyard soil, highlighting the vast quantities of toxic and radioactive waste generated in the process. A kilo of neodymium, worth approximately $95, would require processing tons of soil and producing 50,000 liters of hazardous waste.

China's Dominance and its Consequences

The video emphasizes China's historical dominance in the REE market. A tailings pond at a REE facility in Baotou, China, illustrates the environmental consequences of this dominance, with sludge occasionally seeping into the Yellow River, a vital water source. In 2010, China controlled 97% of the global REE supply, allowing it to manipulate prices and create a near-monopoly. This dominance became a concern for countries like the US, particularly after China restricted REE exports following a diplomatic dispute with Japan in 2010. The US Department of Defense, heavily reliant on REEs for military equipment like the F-35 fighter jet (which requires 400 kilos of REEs), recognized the strategic vulnerability of relying on a potential adversary for these critical materials.

Efforts to Diversify REE Supply

The video highlights efforts to diversify the REE supply chain and reduce reliance on China. The Australian company Lynas Corporation has established a large REE mining operation in Western Australia and a processing plant in Malaysia. These operations have faced environmental concerns and community opposition, particularly in Malaysia. However, Lynas has built a reputation for environmental compliance. The Australian government and the US Department of Defense have provided financial support to Lynas and other projects, including restarting an old REE mine in California and developing REE recycling operations in the US.

The Ukraine Rare Earths "Deal"

The video then delves into the perplexing situation involving claims of vast REE deposits in Ukraine. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham has repeatedly stated that Ukraine possesses trillions of dollars' worth of critical minerals, specifically REEs. He suggested that these resources could be used to repay US aid and enrich the US economy. Former President Donald Trump echoed these claims, stating that he sought a deal with Ukraine to secure $500 billion worth of REEs.

However, geological experts and modern surveys contradict these claims. Ukraine does not have notably large deposits of REEs. The global REE market is worth less than $5 billion annually, making a $500 billion deal impossible. Even if Ukraine had significant REE deposits, developing the necessary mining and processing infrastructure under battlefield conditions would take decades.

Possible Explanations and Conclusion

The video concludes by questioning the rationale behind the Ukraine REE "deal." It proposes several possible explanations:

• Misinformation: Trump may be acting on inaccurate information about Ukraine's mineral resources.
• Machiavellian Scheme: Trump may be crafting a deal he knows Ukraine cannot fulfill as an excuse to withdraw support.
• Justification for Cutting Aid: The deal could be a way to justify cutting off support for Ukraine.

The video ends by expressing hope that the misinformation explanation is not the case, as it would indicate a serious flaw in the information flow within the White House and raise concerns about the basis for foreign policy decisions. The main takeaway is that the REE market is complex, geopolitically sensitive, and prone to misinformation, with significant implications for national security and international relations.