Why This El Niño Could Be Different with Shawn Hackett & Ash Bennington

Key Concepts

• Super El Niño: A climate phenomenon defined by sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific rising 2°C or more above normal.
• 1877-1878 Benchmark: A historical period of extreme weather that serves as a "DNA marker" for current climate modeling due to its unprecedented, simultaneous, continent-wide drought across Asia.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The sea surface temperature differential between the western and eastern Indian Ocean; a neutral or negative IOD, when combined with El Niño, can exacerbate drought conditions across Asia.
• Atmospheric Dust Loading: High concentrations of dust (specifically from the Arabian Peninsula) that suppress atmospheric moisture and weaken monsoon cycles.
• Western Pacific Typhoon Activity: Intense storm activity that can "suck" moisture away from landmasses, further intensifying regional droughts.

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1. The "Super El Niño" Phenomenon

Shawn Hackett identifies the current climate trajectory as a "Super El Niño." While these events are rare (only seven since 1850), Hackett argues that the current situation carries a "higher order risk" because it mirrors the conditions of 1877-1878. Unlike more recent, less impactful Super El Niños (e.g., 2015, 1997, 1982), the current event shows signs of reaching extreme temperature anomalies—potentially exceeding 2.5°C—and poses a significant threat to global food supply chains.

2. Historical Context: The 1877-1878 Drought

The 1877-1878 period is cited as a "100 to 500-year weather anomaly."

• Impact: It caused a simultaneous, region-wide drought across India, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia.
• Consequences: The event triggered some of the deadliest famines in history, with excess mortality rates estimated between 5 and 10 million people in India alone.
• Economic Impact: Cash prices for staples like rice and wheat surged by approximately 600%.
• Modern Perspective: While Hackett emphasizes that modern infrastructure and global connectivity will likely prevent famine on the 19th-century scale, he warns that the potential for severe food shortages and extreme price volatility remains high.

3. Technical Drivers of the Current Risk

Hackett outlines specific meteorological factors that increase the probability of a severe outcome:

• Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies: The primary driver is the intensity of the warming in the central Pacific. Current models suggest the peak will reach the "upper twos" (2.5°C+), comparable to the 1877 event.
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Currently in a negative phase, the IOD is expected to remain neutral through the summer growing season. A neutral IOD removes the "buffer" that usually keeps moisture on the western side of Asia, allowing drought conditions to spread across the entire continent.
• Arabian Peninsula Dust: Atmospheric sensors indicate the highest concentrations of Arabian dust since 2002. This dust acts as a suppressant for atmospheric moisture, effectively "choking" the monsoon cycle.
• Typhoon Dynamics: A highly active western Pacific typhoon season is expected. These storms act as atmospheric vacuums, pulling moisture away from the Asian continent and transporting it toward the Arctic, further drying out agricultural regions.

4. Methodology: "Rhyming" with History

Hackett’s analytical framework relies on the premise that "what has happened in the past is likely to rhyme in the future." By identifying "DNA markers"—specific combinations of SST anomalies, IOD status, and atmospheric dust levels—his firm attempts to forecast the probability of extreme weather outcomes. He stresses that weather prediction is not an exact science and that "signposts" (such as the duration of the peak temperature) must be monitored in real-time to adjust the outlook.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The core takeaway is that the current Super El Niño is not merely a media-hyped event but a statistically significant climate anomaly with the potential to disrupt global food security. While the catastrophic human mortality of the 1870s is unlikely to repeat due to modern technological advancements, the economic implications—specifically regarding food inflation and supply chain instability—are substantial. Investors and policymakers are advised to prepare for a period of high volatility in agricultural commodities as the "genie" of weather-driven supply disruption is released into the global market.