Why the US suddenly needs India more than ever | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strategic Autonomy: India’s foreign policy tradition of maintaining independence, avoiding formal military alliances, and refusing to host foreign military bases.
• The Quad: A strategic security dialogue between the US, India, Japan, and Australia, aimed at ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific.
• Multi-alignment: India’s strategy of building partnerships with various global powers (EU, UK, New Zealand) rather than relying solely on the US.
• Reciprocal/Punitive Tariffs: Trade barriers imposed by the US (25% in April 2025, 50% in August 2025) in response to India’s economic policies and Russian energy imports.
• Interoperability: The ability of US and Indian military forces to operate together effectively through shared technology and joint exercises.

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1. Overview of the Diplomatic Mission

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is conducting a four-day visit to India to address significant friction in US-India relations. The visit is characterized as a "reset" or "reinvigoration" effort following a tumultuous 2025. Key agenda items include resolving trade disputes, securing energy exports (oil and gas), and strengthening defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

2. Sources of Friction (2025 Timeline)

The relationship has been strained by a series of events throughout 2025:

• Trade Tensions: The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff in April, followed by a 50% punitive tariff in August, citing India’s continued purchase of Russian oil and arms.
• Geopolitical Disputes: A four-day military conflict between India and Pakistan in May led to President Trump claiming the role of "ceasefire maker," a narrative India firmly rejects.
• Diplomatic Rhetoric: Tensions were exacerbated by US political rhetoric, including a social media post shared by President Trump that referred to India as a "hellhole country."
• Energy Security: The Iran war and US pressure to reduce Russian oil imports have created a "perfect storm" for India’s energy resources.

3. Strategic Objectives and Frameworks

• Economic: The US seeks a comprehensive trade deal to replace the current interim agreement (which reduced tariffs to 18%). India remains protective of its agricultural market.
• Defense: The US aims to deepen cooperation through tech sharing and joint exercises to build a credible counterweight to China.
• The Quad: The upcoming Foreign Ministers' meeting is viewed as a critical test for the future of the Quad. India hopes this meeting will pave the way for a heads-of-state summit later in 2025, potentially involving a visit by President Trump.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• The "Carrot and Stick" Approach: Experts argue that the US has attempted to use trade as a weapon (the "stick"), which has backfired. Rubio’s offer to supply American energy is viewed as the "carrot," though its success depends on price and market availability.
• Shattered Trust: Both DW’s Xandra Petersman and ORF’s Rachel Rizzo emphasize that trust is a "scarce commodity." India is increasingly hedging its bets by pursuing trade deals with the EU and other middle powers, signaling that the US is no longer the sole cornerstone of its foreign policy.
• Accepting Reality: Rachel Rizzo argues that the US must accept India’s "strategic autonomy." Washington’s attempt to force India into compliance has led to a perception of the US as an "unreliable partner."

5. Notable Quotes

• On the state of the relationship: "This relationship was supposed to be... the defining relationship of the 21st century and instead what we've seen is punishing tariffs." — Rachel Rizzo
• On India’s stance: "India is not just going to bend to the will of the United States... this approach of multi-alignment in India is very much still a part of its foreign policy." — Rachel Rizzo
• On the diplomatic challenge: "With shattered trust being a scarce commodity, I think one visit cannot undo what months of difficulties and bad energy have caused here." — Xandra Petersman

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The success of Marco Rubio’s visit hinges on whether the US can transition from a policy of coercion to one of mutual respect. While there is a clear convergence of strategic interests regarding the containment of China in the Indo-Pacific, India’s refusal to abandon its strategic autonomy or its long-standing trade and energy practices remains a hurdle. The upcoming Quad meeting will serve as a barometer for whether the two nations can move past the "bad energy" of 2025 and establish a more stable, long-term partnership.