Why the hardest steps toward peace in Gaza are still to come | DW News

Key Concepts Trump's Peace Plan (20-point plan), Phase One Agreement, Phase Two Challenges, Disarmament of Hamas, Israeli Withdrawal (Yellow Line, Buffer Zone), Multinational Peacekeeping Force, Gaza Governance (Technocratic Committee, Board of Peace, Palestinian Authority Reform), Two-State Solution, Marwan Barghouti, Accountability and Justice, Extremist Israeli Coalition, US as an "Honest Broker," European Agenda (Macron's Initiative), Israeli Settlements in West Bank.

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Initial Deal and Looming Obstacles

The initial agreement between Israel and Hamas represents the first phase of a 20-point peace plan proposed by Donald Trump. While this phase, focusing on a ceasefire and hostage/prisoner exchange, has been met with initial joy and confidence, the subsequent phases are deemed significantly more challenging and could derail the entire peace process. These critical obstacles include:

• Disarming Hamas: Requiring the decommissioning of all weapons and destruction of terrorist infrastructure (tunnels, arms production sites).
• Full Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza: A complete pullout of Israeli forces.
• Future Governance of Gaza: Determining who will govern the territory post-conflict.

Key Challenges of Phase Two

Disarmament of Hamas

Under Trump's 20-point plan, Hamas is mandated to decommission all weapons and destroy its terrorist infrastructure, including tunnels and arms production sites. However, for Hamas, this is viewed as tantamount to complete surrender, leaving them vulnerable if Israel were to resume hostilities. Notably, Hamas's initial response to Trump's plan did not mention disarmament. Critics suggest that Hamas would require "stronger guarantees" to permanently put their weapons beyond use.

Israeli Withdrawal from Gaza

Israel has stated it will only agree to a complete withdrawal of its forces from Gaza—a key Hamas demand—when it, along with partners like the US, determines that the enclave is "sufficiently demilitarized" and militants no longer pose a threat. A White House-published map outlines three phases of withdrawal:

1. Phase One: Coincides with the hostage release.
2. Phase Two: The IDF begins handing over territory to a multinational peacekeeping force.
3. Phase Three: Israel maintains a "buffer zone" covering up to 15% of Palestinian territory, with "no enforceable timeline for withdrawal." As part of the current Phase One, the Israeli military has begun withdrawing to the "yellow line," reducing its control from over 80% to approximately 53% of Gaza territory.

Multinational Peacekeeping Force

The establishment of a multinational peacekeeping force is crucial for security in Gaza after Israel's withdrawal. This force is intended to be composed largely of Arab and Muslim forces. However, few countries have made firm commitments, with many reportedly setting "tough conditions." Their concerns include not wanting to be perceived as "assisting Israel in cracking down on Palestinians" and worries about the safety of their own troops. French President Macron later proposed an "international stabilization mission under the umbrella of the UN" to facilitate this.

Future Governance of Gaza

The plan initially envisions a "technocratic a-political committee of Palestinians" governing Gaza, supervised by a "Board of Peace" headed by Donald Trump and other international experts like Tony Blair. Hamas is explicitly required to have "no role in the governance of the strip." The plan also foresees a future role for the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Gaza, but only after it has "reformed" (i.e., become less corrupt and more efficient). However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is "vehemently opposed" to the idea of the PA governing Gaza.

Expert Analysis: Renee Venel's Perspective

Renee Venel, a historian and Middle East expert, highlights the extreme fragility of the situation despite initial celebrations. He expresses confidence in the immediate hostage/prisoner swap but views subsequent phases as "very, very difficult" due to the unchanged nature of the parties involved.

• Israeli Government: Described as an "extremist coalition" that has "not been a partner for peace," with clear goals of "continued occupation" and keeping "Palestinians divided."
• Hamas: Expected to "remain as a movement" even if disarmed, not to "suddenly dissolve."
• Critique of "Peace Plan": Venel argues that it is not a true "peace plan" but rather a ceasefire aimed at stabilization and reconstruction. He emphasizes that "peace is more than a ceasefire" and requires "accountability" and "justice" for "grave war crimes" and the situation described as "genocide" by human rights organizations, none of which are addressed in the plan. He dismisses Trump's notion of "eternal peace" as being "very, very far away."
• US as a Broker: Venel is "skeptical" of US guarantees, stating that "Trump is not an honest broker," citing his failed 2020 peace plan.
• Exclusion of Marwan Barghouti: The omission of Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Palestinian political figure respected across factions and an advocate for a two-state solution, from the prisoner exchange list is seen as "not a coincidence." Barghouti is viewed as a potential unifying figure for Palestinians, which Venel suggests is "the one thing that this Israeli government does not want," representing "Netanyahu's nightmare." The plan's focus solely on Gaza, sidelining the Palestinian Authority and ignoring the West Bank, further underscores this.

European and International Efforts: Macron's Initiative

French President Emmanuel Macron convened talks in Paris with ministers from several Middle Eastern and European nations, aiming for the agreement to mark "the end of the war in Gaza and the start of a two-state political solution." This meeting was designed to be "complementary" to the Trump plan, focusing on three key post-war aspects:

1. Governance: Discussing how Gaza and the Palestinian territories could be governed after the war.
2. Safety: Guaranteeing the safety of people on the ground.
3. Reconstruction: Mobilizing international support for reconstruction, specifically endorsing an "international stabilization mission under the umbrella of the UN" to replace Israeli forces.

A significant challenge for this initiative was the last-minute withdrawal of the US Secretary of State, reducing the potential impact. Macron's broader goals included reuniting European voices, which had been divided (e.g., Germany/Austria supporting Israel vs. Spain/Belgium supporting Palestine). He used the platform to reiterate two key points:

1. Israeli Settlements: Criticizing Israel's "acceleration of the settlements in the West Bank" as "against international law" and "inacceptable," demanding their cessation.
2. Two-State Solution: Insisting that any outcome from negotiations should be based on a "two-state solution" for peaceful coexistence.

On-the-Ground Developments and Israeli Perspectives

DW correspondent Emily Gordin reported from Jerusalem on the immediate aftermath of the cabinet's approval of the first phase:

• Ceasefire and Withdrawal: A ceasefire is in place, and the Israeli military has begun withdrawing from parts of Gaza to the "yellow line," now controlling about 53% of the territory.
• Hostage Release Process: Hamas will gather the estimated "20 still expected to be alive hostages" and hand them over to the Red Cross, who will then transfer them to the Israeli military. This process is expected within a "72-hour window."
• Cabinet Delay: The Israeli cabinet's approval was delayed because National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir "demanded to veto the release of specific Palestinians." As part of the deal, Israel is set to release "700 Palestinian detainees" and "an additional 250 Palestinians who were serving life sentences."
• Israeli Public Opinion: Despite deep divisions, polls indicate a "majority of Israelis favor a deal" and want the "return of the Israeli hostages," feeling "relief" that the war is ending. While hardline ministers like Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir view the deal as a "security threat," their concerns are not shared by the majority. Israelis largely credit US President Donald Trump as the "pushing force behind this deal," recognizing that "political will" was the previously missing element.

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Conclusion

The initial agreement on Trump's peace plan has brought a temporary ceasefire and the promise of hostage and prisoner exchanges, generating widespread relief. However, the path to lasting peace remains fraught with significant challenges, particularly concerning the disarmament of Hamas, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the establishment of stable governance in Gaza. Experts are skeptical of the plan's ability to deliver genuine peace without addressing issues of accountability and justice, and without fostering Palestinian unity. While international efforts, notably from Europe, aim to complement the US-led initiative by focusing on post-war reconstruction and advocating for a two-state solution, the deep-seated political divisions and conflicting objectives of the parties involved underscore the immense difficulty of achieving a comprehensive and enduring resolution. The success of the subsequent phases will depend heavily on sustained political will and the ability to navigate these complex and entrenched obstacles.