Why Russia views Trump's threat to supply Tomahawks to Ukraine as an escalation in the war | DW News

Key Concepts

• Tomahawk Cruise Missiles: Long-range, precision-guided missiles with significant payload and advanced capabilities.
• Air Defense: Critical systems needed by Ukraine to protect against Russian missile and drone attacks.
• Long-Range Strike Capabilities: The ability to hit targets deep within enemy territory.
• Game Changer vs. Catalyst: Distinction between a single weapon fundamentally altering a conflict and one enabling significant strategic shifts when combined with other factors.
• Negotiating Tactic: Using the threat or promise of military aid to influence diplomatic outcomes.

Ukraine's Pursuit of Tomahawk Missiles and Enhanced Capabilities

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced an upcoming meeting with US President Donald Trump in Washington to discuss Ukraine's air defense and long-range strike capabilities. Zelensky intends to present Trump with a detailed vision of the number of Tomahawk missiles Ukraine requires for its war effort against Russia.

Tomahawk Cruise Missile Capabilities

Tomahawk cruise missiles, first introduced in the 1980s, are highly capable weapons:

• Payload: They can carry a 500 kg payload.
• Launch: Typically fired from ships.
• Flight Profile: Capable of flying at low altitudes to evade missile defenses.
• Flexibility: Can be reprogrammed in flight and can loiter over targets before striking.
• Range: A critical differentiator, Tomahawks can reach targets up to 2500 km away. This significantly extends Ukraine's strike capability compared to existing tactical missiles like British Storm Shadows, German Taurus, and US-made ATACMS, which have ranges of only a few hundred kilometers. A 2500 km range would put Moscow and the Olenya air base (a primary launch site for Russian missile attacks) easily within reach.

The acquisition process for Ukraine would involve European NATO member countries purchasing Tomahawks from the US and then transferring them to Ukraine, a prospect that has raised concerns about Europe being drawn deeper into the conflict.

Expert Analysis on Tomahawk Delivery and Strategic Impact

Likelihood of Delivery and Trump's Strategy

Political scientist Michelle Alexeev, a professor at San Diego State University, believes the delivery of Tomahawks is a "very serious possibility." He suggests that the Trump administration would initially use the prospect of Tomahawk delivery as a negotiating tactic to pressure Moscow into making concessions, potentially agreeing to a ceasefire and then negotiating seriously. However, if Moscow does not respond to these threats, Alexeev anticipates the Trump administration would proceed with the delivery to avoid appearing weakened.

Regarding former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's threat that delivering Tomahawks "could end badly for everyone," Alexeev dismisses Medvedev's words as part of a track record of "incredible threats" but acknowledges they indicate the Kremlin's serious view of the military capabilities Ukraine might receive.

"Game Changer" vs. "Catalyst"

Alexeev clarifies that no single capability, including Tomahawks, will be a "game changer" given the scale of Russian military capabilities, territory, and economy. Instead, Tomahawks could serve as a "catalyst for important change" if provided in sufficient numbers and used by Ukraine in combination with other recently developed capabilities, such as Neptune cruise missiles or Flamingo long-range cruise missiles.

Clint Reach's Perspective: Dual Intent and Broader Needs

Clint Reach, a senior defense researcher at the Rand Corporation, views Trump's hints about sending Tomahawks as "a little bit of both" – a threat to push Russia to negotiate and a genuine offer. He emphasizes that Trump aims to get the Kremlin's attention, and long-range missiles are an effective way to do so.

Reach elaborates on how Tomahawks would assist Ukraine:

• Extreme Range and Accuracy: They are "extremely long range and extremely accurate," far surpassing anything Ukraine currently possesses.
• Deep Strike Capability: They could reach "far inside Russia all the way to the Urals," including critical targets like Moscow and St. Petersburg, introducing a new and significant threat into the war.

However, Reach also raises crucial questions about the "survivability of the system" and the "quantities of missiles" that would be provided, along with other technical considerations that would determine their overall impact.

Ukraine's Broader Defense Needs

Beyond long-range strike capabilities, Reach highlights Ukraine's urgent need for enhanced air defenses. As winter approaches, Ukraine requires more air defense systems to protect its power plants and other critical infrastructure from Russia's ongoing bombardment, which targets energy infrastructure, civilian sites, and military assets across the country, especially in Kyiv. Russia's continued proliferation of thousands of drones further exacerbates the demand for Western air defenses.

Conclusion

The potential delivery of Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine represents a significant escalation in its long-range strike capabilities, offering the ability to target deep within Russian territory. While not a singular "game changer," these missiles could act as a powerful "catalyst" for strategic shifts if provided in sufficient numbers and integrated with Ukraine's existing defense assets. The discussions surrounding Tomahawks also underscore a dual strategy by the US: using the threat of advanced weaponry as a negotiating leverage against Moscow, while simultaneously considering a genuine enhancement of Ukraine's military capacity. Crucially, experts emphasize that alongside offensive capabilities, Ukraine's immediate and pressing need for robust air defense systems remains paramount to protect its infrastructure and population from persistent Russian missile and drone attacks.