Why Russia could be more dangerous after the end of the war in Ukraine | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strategic Depth: The concept of maintaining a buffer zone of territory between a nation's heartland and potential adversaries to ensure physical security.
• Militarized Economy: An economic state where production is heavily skewed toward defense and military output, often supported by external partners (e.g., China).
• Existential Threat: A situation where a nation perceives an adversary as a direct danger to its survival or sovereignty.
• Frozen Conflict: A situation where active armed conflict has ceased, but no peace treaty or political resolution has been achieved, leaving the potential for future hostilities.
• Paper Tiger: A metaphor used to describe an entity (like NATO) that appears threatening or powerful but is perceived as ineffective or hollow.
• Peredyshka: A Russian term meaning "breathing space" or a temporary break, often used in a strategic context to regroup before further conflict.

1. The Paradox of a Weakened yet Dangerous Russia

Eugene Rumer, Director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, argues that while Russia is being significantly debilitated by the war in Ukraine, it is simultaneously becoming more dangerous.

• Indicators of Weakness: Russia has suffered over a million casualties (killed and wounded), experienced a "brain drain" of skilled professionals fleeing the draft, and seen its economy isolated from global markets, effectively becoming a "petro-state."
• Drivers of Danger: The war has eliminated Russia’s "strategic depth." With Finland and Sweden joining NATO and Ukraine becoming an implacable adversary, the Russian heartland is now vulnerable to direct strikes from drones and missiles. Rumer posits that Russian leadership will not tolerate this loss of security and will likely seek to regain its "margin of safety" through future aggression.

2. The New Era of Confrontation

The conflict has ushered in a period of long-term rivalry, often described as a "new Iron Curtain."

• Geographic Scope: Tensions are hardening along a vast front stretching from the Arctic, through the Baltic states, past Kaliningrad, and down to the Black Sea.
• Military Posture: Both Russia and NATO are strengthening their military presence. Russia is leveraging its vast resources and a militarized economy, bolstered by equipment deliveries from China, to sustain its belligerence.

3. Strategic Outlook and Future Risks

Rumer emphasizes that the war is unlikely to end with a decisive victory like WWII. Instead, he anticipates a "frozen conflict" or a ceasefire that serves as a prelude to future rounds of fighting.

• The Vulnerability Window: Europe is currently in a "danger zone" as it transitions from a period of relative peace to one of rearmament. Rumer warns that Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO’s resolve—specifically by staging a provocation in the Baltic states—to prove that the alliance is a "hollow" entity.
• Post-Putin Russia: While a generational change in leadership may eventually lead to a peredyshka (a temporary breathing space or détente), Rumer argues that the fundamental drivers of Russian insecurity—the desire for strategic depth and the fear of Western technology—will persist, ensuring that adversarial relations remain the long-term trajectory.

4. Actionable Insights for European Policy Makers

Rumer outlines a framework for European security that moves beyond "crossing fingers and hoping":

• Comprehensive Defense: Developing integrated, long-term plans for defense and deterrence.
• Nuclear Deterrence: Creating specific strategies to counter Russian nuclear blackmail.
• Transatlantic Preservation: Maintaining the relationship with the United States is deemed "absolutely essential," as Russia views the U.S. as an existential threat regardless of shifting political administrations.
• Mindset Shift: Beyond increasing defense spending, European populations must mentally prepare for a sustained, high-threat environment.

5. Notable Quotes

• "Russia will come out of its war with Ukraine weaker but more dangerous." — Eugene Rumer
• "The line of contact between Russia and NATO is now literally on the doorstep of what historically has been the Russian heartland." — Eugene Rumer
• "Crossing your fingers and hoping is not really a plan." — Attributed to Mark Carney (referenced by the interviewer)

Synthesis

The core takeaway is that the war in Ukraine has fundamentally altered the European security architecture. Russia’s loss of its traditional buffer zones has created a permanent state of insecurity for the Kremlin, which it is likely to address through continued belligerence. Europe’s security now depends on its ability to rapidly transition to a state of permanent deterrence, integrate its defense capabilities, and maintain a unified transatlantic front to prevent a localized conflict from escalating into a broader, more catastrophic confrontation.