Why 'Junk' Silver Is The Sweet Spot If You're Buying Now
By Arcadia Economics
Key Concepts
- Junk Silver/Constitutional Silver: US dimes, quarters, and half-dollars minted before 1965, which are 90% silver.
- Premiums/Discounts: The difference between the melt value of silver in a coin or bar and its market price.
- Financial Reset: A period of significant and potentially disruptive changes in the global financial system.
- Barter Items: Goods or services used for exchange in the absence of or alongside traditional currency.
- Green Energy Economy: The growing sector focused on renewable energy sources and sustainable technologies.
Why Buying Junk Silver Makes Sense Now
David Morgan, from The Morgan Report, argues that buying "junk silver" (also known as constitutional silver, referring to US dimes, quarters, and half-dollars minted before 1965) is a sensible strategy at the present time. He highlights several key reasons:
- Simplicity and Trust: Unlike the complexities of the broader precious metals market, constitutional silver offers a straightforward and trusted form of money. It represents a time when America minted precious metals coins, making it recognizable and divisible.
- Unusually Well-Priced: Currently, constitutional silver is experiencing a discount relative to its melt value, which is an anomaly.
- Historical Premiums: Historically, premiums on junk silver have spiked during times of uncertainty, such as the Y2K event. This suggests its potential value as a barter item during crises.
Analysis of Silver Premiums and Discounts
Morgan presents data from Franklin Sanders of The Money Changer, illustrating the premiums (or discounts) on bags of silver over time, from 2012 to the present.
- Historical Trend: For most of the 13-year period shown, bags of silver have carried a significant premium.
- Recent Anomaly: A notable discount on silver bags began in 2023 and has since "fallen off a cliff." This occurred while the silver price itself rose from approximately $25 per ounce to nearly $60 per ounce.
- Example of Anomaly: In 2020, when silver was priced around $20-$22, the premium on bags was as high as $9.
- Future Outlook: While the current discount might persist for a few more years, Morgan suggests it's more likely to revert to par (face value) or even command a large premium again, especially if events similar to Y2K (requiring barter items or small denominations of silver) occur.
Recommendations for Silver Investment
Morgan provides practical advice for those looking to invest in silver:
- Starting Point: For new investors, he recommends starting with a bag, half-bag, or quarter-bag of constitutional silver.
- A full bag ($1,000 face value) contains approximately 720 ounces of silver.
- At a discount of $3-$4 per ounce, a bag could cost around $40,000 (40 times face value).
- A quarter bag would then be approximately $10,000.
- Subsequent Investments: After establishing an initial position in constitutional silver, Morgan suggests moving to bars, rounds, or government-minted coins for further investments.
Other Market Insights and Discussions
The transcript touches upon several other topics:
- Wall Street Silver Interview: Morgan mentions an interview with Tom Pella on Wall Street Silver, discussing the basics of a "power outage" event and quoting relevant numbers.
- Company Updates: He plans to interview Tom Pella and Dean Noata for premium members of The Morgan Report to provide an update on a specific company that has been on their speculative list for a long time.
- Platinum Market: Platinum is noted as performing well, with discussions around its role in the green energy economy.
- Silver Supply and Demand: An article from the Financial Times is mentioned regarding the sourcing of old silver into India, though Morgan expresses some skepticism about the reported numbers.
- Central Bank Gold Purchases: The transcript references an article from Zero Hedge about central banks' significant purchases of gold, leading to silver surging to record highs due to demand from China and an ensuing squeeze.
Broader Economic Context and The Morgan Report
The video concludes by framing these market observations within a larger economic context:
- US Government Debt: The US government debt is highlighted as approaching $37 trillion.
- Economic Challenges: Other ongoing issues include the use of tariffs, shifting global supply chains, persistent inflation, and the devaluation of the US dollar.
- Financial Reset: Morgan posits that these factors indicate the early stages of a "financial reset."
- The Morgan Report's Value Proposition: For over 25 years, David Morgan has provided research and analysis through The Morgan Report to help investors navigate these complexities, protect their wealth, and make informed decisions amidst rising debt, unstable currencies, and economic uncertainty. He encourages listeners to visit morganreport.com for a free report and to take control of their financial future.
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