Why Israel's biggest trading partner seems unable to exert power | DW News

Key Concepts

• Post-war order in Gaza: The focus after the conflict shifts to who will govern and rebuild Gaza.
• EU's role in the Middle East: Discussion on the European Union's diminished influence and capacity to act in the region.
• EU-Israel Association Agreement: A trade agreement that could be used as leverage by the EU.
• Two-state solution: The internationally recognized framework for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Internal EU divisions: Disagreements among member states hindering a unified foreign policy.
• Security interests: The driving force behind European action on Ukraine, contrasted with Gaza.
• Humanitarian aid to Gaza: The critical need for food and supplies, and the challenges in delivery.
• Famine conditions in Gaza: The severe food insecurity affecting a significant portion of the population.
• Ceasefire fragility: The precarious nature of the current truce and its impact on aid operations.

Europe's Diminished Influence in the Middle East

The transcript discusses the fragile ceasefire in Gaza and the subsequent shift in focus towards establishing a post-war order. It highlights the United States' leading diplomatic role and questions Europe's capacity to influence events on the ground. Despite the European Union being Israel's largest trading partner and a significant provider of aid and reconstruction materials to Gaza, EU leaders have struggled to translate economic weight into political leverage. This is attributed to internal divisions, reliance on the US, and slow decision-making processes. The central question posed is whether Europe can convert its potential into tangible influence or remain in Washington's shadow.

Analysis of EU's Irrelevance in the Middle East

Natalie Tachi, Director of the Institute for International Affairs in Rome, argues that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's statement about the EU's irrelevance in the Middle East peace process is, in a sense, correct. She extends this irrelevance beyond the peace process to the broader Middle East, encompassing conflicts involving Israel-Palestine and Iran.

Structural Reasons for EU's Lack of Influence:

• Traditional "second fiddle" role to the US: For decades, the EU has historically played a subordinate role to the United States in the Middle East.
• US policy transformation: The increasing erraticism of US policy, particularly under the Trump presidency, has left Europe without a clear direction or "north star" in the region.

Deeper, Paradoxical Reason for EU's Irrelevance:

Tachi posits that the reason for the EU's irrelevance is paradoxically the opposite of what the Israeli Prime Minister implies. While Netanyahu might suggest the EU is irrelevant because it seeks to pressure Israel (citing protests and isolation of Israel in European capitals), Tachi argues the opposite: the EU has become irrelevant because it has not been willing to exert pressure on key players, particularly the Israeli Prime Minister, who show no intention of moving towards a peace process, especially one that ends with a two-state solution. She emphasizes that this is not an opinion but a reflection of explicit statements made by the Israeli government itself.

EU's Leverage and Internal Divisions

The discussion delves into the EU's potential leverage as Israel's largest trading partner and why this has not been effectively utilized.

The EU-Israel Association Agreement and Trade Preferences

• Proposal to suspend trade preferences: Two years into the war in Gaza, the European Commission proposed suspending trade preferences for Israel, as outlined in the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
• Obstruction by member states: This proposal has not materialized due to the refusal of two major member states, Italy and Germany, to support it, despite a majority of member states favoring the move.
• Relief from a "peace plan": Several European governments reportedly feel relieved by the emergence of a "peace plan," as it allows them to avoid exerting pressure on parties perceived to be moving towards peace.
• Tachi's counter-argument: Tachi argues that this is precisely the moment to increase pressure, as there are strong incentives for parties to avoid implementing the plan, a fact acknowledged by the Israeli government. She believes this is crucial for Europe to regain any role in the region.
• Spanish Prime Minister's stance: The Spanish Prime Minister is cited as an example of a leader who believes now is the time to move forward and not forget past events.

Internal Divisions as a Hindrance

• Traditional problem: Internal divisions within the EU have historically been a significant obstacle to a united policy in the Middle East, particularly concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• Historical consensus: Tachi notes that there was a period, from the 1982 Venice Declaration to the early 2000s, when the EU gradually built consensus on a two-state solution and its implications.
• Fraying consensus: Over the last decade to decade and a half, this consensus has been eroding, culminating in the situation over the past two years.
• "Lazy explanation" for inaction: While divisions are a real factor, Tachi suggests they are often used as a convenient excuse for passivity. She argues that unity can be built and fostered, citing the example of the war in Ukraine, where unity was achieved despite initial divisions through internal pressure on reluctant member states.

Europe's Divergent Approaches: Ukraine vs. Gaza

The transcript contrasts Europe's bold action on Ukraine with its timid approach to Gaza, questioning the underlying motivations.

Values vs. Security Interests

• Values as a weak argument: Tachi argues that Europe's actions are no longer driven by values, as a strong case for values-based action can be made for both Ukraine and Gaza, given the violations of international law in the latter.
• Security interests as the driver for Ukraine: The fundamental difference, according to Tachi, is that a critical mass of Europeans understand that the conflict in Ukraine is tied to their own security interests. This understanding has led to sustained action, despite US policy shifts.
• Lack of perceived interest in Gaza: In contrast, the security interest question regarding Gaza is not as deeply understood or felt by Europeans. Tachi views this as short-sighted, as a more active and constructive role in the Middle East would be in Europe's interest.

The Price of Peace

• Willingness to pay a cost: Tachi emphasizes that playing a role in conflicts requires a willingness to pay a price. She draws a parallel with Ukraine, where imposing sanctions and providing financial, military, political, and diplomatic support has come at a significant cost.
• Unwillingness to pay for Middle East peace: When it comes to the Middle East and Gaza, Europe has not been willing to pay the cost, whether that means confronting the United States or Israel. Until this willingness exists, Europe will not play a meaningful role.

Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and Aid Delivery

The latter part of the transcript focuses on the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and the challenges of delivering aid.

Urgent Need for Food and Aid

• UN appeal for massive aid: The UN calls for Gaza to be flooded with food to reverse famine conditions in parts of the territory.
• Call for opening border crossings: Israel is urged to open all border crossings to facilitate humanitarian aid delivery.
• Insufficient aid flow: While some aid is entering Gaza, it is far below the required levels.
• Ceasefire as a moment of hope: The UN relief coordinator described the start of aid movement as a moment of hope and a new chapter, with promises of large-scale deliveries.
• Desperate conditions: Despite these promises, the situation remains desperate, with essentials scarce or non-existent.

Challenges in Aid Distribution

• Limited WFP capacity: The World Food Program (WFP) has managed to move approximately 3,000 tons of food since the truce began, but this is a fraction of what is needed.
• Palestinian accounts: Testimonies from Palestinians highlight the lack of food, mattresses, blankets, and tents, and the inconsistent delivery of even essential supplies like water.
• Obstacles to aid: Aid agencies urge Israel to open all border crossings as promised in the peace agreement.
• Rafa crossing closure: Israel has reportedly postponed the reopening of the Rafa crossing into southern Gaza, citing Hamas's failure to return the remains of all deceased hostages.
• WFP scaling up plans: The WFP plans to scale up deliveries to reach 1.6 million people in Gaza over the next three months, emphasizing that quicker delivery saves lives.

World Food Program's Perspective

Aira, a senior spokeswoman for the WFP, provides insights into the situation on the ground:

• Unprecedented hunger: Gaza faces unprecedented food insecurity and hunger levels, with 500,000 people in the north experiencing famine conditions since August.
• Slow but present progress: Food distributions have begun, with five sites operational and plans for 145 distribution sites across Gaza.
• Distance from "flooding Gaza with food": Aira states that they are still "very far" from achieving the goal of flooding Gaza with food.
• Massive challenges: Significant challenges include clearing roads, rubble, restoring infrastructure, and opening all five border crossing points.
• Recent progress: Last night, 57 trucks successfully delivered supplies from the Karam Shalom border crossing to WFP warehouses, a feat not achieved for many weeks.
• Distribution in Gaza City: Nutrition supplies have been distributed in Gaza City, one of the hardest-hit areas.
• Fragile ceasefire: The initial days of the ceasefire are fragile, and the real test will be sustained access, ramped-up operations, improved bureaucracy, coordination, and the opening of border crossings.
• Aid as pressure on Hamas: Aira expresses concern about aid being used as a primary means of pressure on Hamas, emphasizing the imperative to avoid punishing the civilian population.
• Ceasefire essential for operations: A ceasefire is crucial for the WFP to scale up operations, reach all those in need, establish distribution points, and allow markets to operate.
• Voucher program: The WFP is planning to distribute vouchers to 200,000 people to supplement their diets with fresh food from local markets.
• Resumption of military campaign: A resumption of military operations would severely hinder the WFP's ability to operate and reach those in need.

Conclusion

The transcript highlights the complex geopolitical landscape surrounding Gaza, with a critical examination of the EU's limited influence. While the EU possesses economic power, internal divisions and a lack of willingness to bear the costs associated with assertive foreign policy have rendered it largely ineffective in the Middle East. The dire humanitarian situation in Gaza underscores the urgent need for sustained and unhindered aid, which is currently hampered by logistical challenges and political considerations. The effectiveness of the current ceasefire and the future role of international actors, particularly the EU, remain uncertain.