Why Israel is closely watching the Iran protests

Iranian Protests & Israeli Concerns: A Detailed Analysis

Key Concepts:

• Iranian Protests: Ongoing demonstrations in Iran sparked by economic hardship and lack of democracy, intensified by recent events.
• Regime Change: Potential overthrow of the current Iranian government.
• Israeli Deterrence: Israel’s ability to prevent attacks from Iran and maintain regional security.
• Preemptive Strike: A military action taken to prevent an anticipated attack.
• Proxy Network: Iran’s network of allied groups in the region.
• Israeli Profile: The level of public visibility and involvement of Israel in regional affairs.
• Nuclear Program: Iran’s development of nuclear capabilities, a major concern for Israel and the international community.
• Ballistic Missiles: Long-range missiles developed by Iran, posing a direct threat to Israel.

I. Current Situation in Iran & Regional Implications

The protests in Iran have escalated, accompanied by reports of violent suppression by Iranian authorities, with hundreds reportedly killed. This unrest poses a significant question mark over the future stability of the Iranian regime, a situation closely monitored by Israel. The protests stem from economic difficulties and a lack of democratic freedoms, but observers suggest the situation was exacerbated by events in June, potentially breaking a “barrier of fear” that previously suppressed dissent.

II. Israeli Fears of Iranian Retaliation

Israel is concerned that the internal turmoil in Iran could trigger an external conflict, potentially leading to another war between Israel and Iran. This concern is heightened given the recent 12-day conflict between the two nations in June. Several factors contribute to this fear:

• Diversionary Tactic: The Iranian regime might initiate a conflict with Israel to divert attention from domestic problems and rally public support. As stated, “when you have problems at home, you cast around for a for an external enemy.”
• Miscalculation: Israel fears an Iranian miscalculation, particularly a preemptive strike based on the belief that Israel is preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Restoring Deterrence: Iran seeks to restore its military prestige after failing to inflict significant damage on Israel during the June conflict, despite firing over 500 missiles. The desire to “restore its own deterrence and restore its military pride” is a key motivator.
• US Intervention: The possibility of a US attack on Iran, following Donald Trump’s threats to retaliate against Iran for suppressing protesters, raises concerns that Iran would retaliate against US allies in the region, including Israel.

III. Potential for Israeli Action & Shifting Dynamics

While the situation in Iran presents an opportunity for Israel to pursue its long-term goal of dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, current indications suggest a cautious approach.

• Netanyahu’s Approach to Trump: Prime Minister Netanyahu recently sought support from President Trump for a potential strike on Iran during a meeting at Mar-a-Lago, and Trump pledged support if Iran rebuilds its nuclear program.
• Replenishing Interceptors: Israel is currently focused on replenishing its missile defense interceptors and is not immediately prepared for a large-scale offensive.
• Shift in Netanyahu’s Rhetoric: Interestingly, during a recent interview, Netanyahu appeared less eager to discuss Iran and even avoided endorsing Trump’s threats, stating, “revolutions happen best from within.” This suggests a deliberate policy shift to “lower the Israeli profile” and avoid being perceived as interfering in Iran’s internal affairs, potentially to mitigate the risk of Iranian escalation. This is a significant departure from his historical stance, where he consistently urged tougher action against Iran.

IV. Potential Israeli Gains & Long-Term Vision

Israel hopes to leverage the current situation to its advantage in several ways:

• Securing Weapons: The primary immediate concern is the security of Iran’s ballistic missiles and nuclear program, particularly if law and order break down. The regime might attempt to use these assets in negotiations with the US. Trump has already indicated a willingness to engage in talks with Iran.
• Weakening Proxy Network: A focus on internal issues and economic reconstruction will likely limit Iran’s ability to fund and support its regional proxy network, which has been weakened in recent years.
• Re-establishing Alliance: Looking further ahead, some envision a potential restoration of the alliance between Israel and Iran that existed before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Prior to the revolution, Iran was Israel’s key ally in the region, with significant economic and military cooperation. As noted, “you speak to a lot of people who were around in those days. They don't see a reason why that kind of alliance can't exist again.”

V. Data & Statistics Mentioned

• June Conflict: 12-day war between Israel and Iran approximately 7 months prior to the interview.
• Missiles Fired: Iran fired over 500 missiles during the June conflict.
• Casualties: Reports of hundreds of people killed in the recent Iranian protests.

Conclusion:

The situation in Iran is highly volatile and presents both risks and opportunities for Israel. While Israel remains deeply concerned about Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, it is currently adopting a cautious approach, prioritizing de-escalation and allowing the internal situation in Iran to unfold. The shift in Netanyahu’s rhetoric suggests a strategic attempt to prevent Iranian miscalculation and avoid triggering a wider conflict. Ultimately, Israel hopes to see a positive change in Iran that could potentially lead to a long-term normalization of relations, mirroring the pre-1979 alliance. The situation remains extremely uncertain, requiring careful monitoring and strategic decision-making.