Why Iran's regime is not finished (yet) and why Trump can't help

Battle Lines: Iran Protests - January 12th, 2026 - Summary

Key Concepts: Iranian Protests (2025-2026), Regime Change, IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), Geopolitical Implications, US Intervention, Reza Pahlavi, Economic Crisis, Internet Blackout, Human Rights Violations, Water Crisis.

I. Current Situation & Protest Origins

The episode of Battle Lines, dated January 12th, 2026, focuses on the escalating protests in Iran, which began in late December 2025. The initial spark was the closure of shops in Tehran’s Aladdin Market due to the collapse of the Iranian Rial (reaching 2 million Rials to one pound). This quickly escalated with the Grand Bazaar of Tehran joining the protests – a historically significant event, as the Bazaar’s opposition to any regime (Shah or Ayatollah) is a strong indicator of widespread discontent. The protests rapidly spread beyond Tehran to smaller cities, traditionally considered regime strongholds, marking a key difference from previous protest waves. As of the recording date, over 500 people have been killed and over 10,000 arrested, according to US-based human rights organizations.

II. Historical Context & Protest Patterns

Roland Olifan notes a recurring pattern of protests in Iran, citing waves in 1980, 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022. Each time, there’s a sense that “this time feels different,” but previous attempts at regime change have failed. The current wave is distinguished by its geographic spread, increased violence (including reports of protesters burning mosques and engaging in armed clashes with security forces), and the widespread availability of weapons (particularly in Arab and Kurdish regions and following raids on police stations). There is no evidence of external arming of the protesters, with weapons primarily sourced domestically.

III. Regime Response & Internal Dynamics

The Iranian regime initially attempted to quell the protests with cash handouts, which proved ineffective. Subsequently, the regime resorted to its standard tactics: brutal violence and an internet blackout. Ayatollah Khamenei’s speech on Friday, labeling protesters as “foreign hirelings” and “bent on destruction,” served as a trigger for intensified repression. Akar McCoy reports on individual victims, highlighting the young age and marginalized backgrounds of many killed, and the difficulties families face in retrieving and burying their loved ones. The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is identified as the key force maintaining the regime’s power, with little expectation of defection.

IV. Geopolitical Considerations & Potential Intervention

David Blair emphasizes the changed geopolitical landscape compared to the 2009 protests. The US President is actively commenting on the situation and has publicly threatened military intervention. The US President is scheduled to be briefed on military options. This contrasts sharply with the Obama administration’s reticence in 2009. The situation is further complicated by recent Israeli strikes against Iran, the collapse of Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the removal of Assad in Syria. The potential for foreign intervention is discussed, with concerns that it could rally support for the regime due to nationalist sentiment.

V. The Role of Reza Pahlavi & Potential Leadership Vacuum

The discussion turns to Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah. While historically considered irrelevant, he has gained some traction as a potential figurehead, particularly due to the lack of other viable opposition leaders. However, opinions are divided, with some viewing him as a potentially acceptable alternative to the current regime, while others express skepticism about his leadership capabilities and the potential for a return to authoritarianism. Akar McCoy notes that among his sources, there is little support for Pahlavi. The lack of a unified opposition and a clear plan for a post-regime Iran is a significant concern.

VI. US Military Options & Risks

The possibility of US military intervention is explored, with options ranging from cyberattacks to targeted strikes against regime infrastructure (including the IRGC and intelligence facilities). The primary objective would likely be to weaken the regime’s ability to suppress protests and facilitate communication for the opposition. However, the risks of unintended consequences and escalating the conflict are acknowledged. The potential for a Venezuelan-style outcome – replacing the leader without fundamentally altering the regime – is also considered.

VII. On-the-Ground Reality & Signs of Potential Change

Roland Olifan describes Tehran as a busy, polluted, and somewhat neglected city. Akar McCoy highlights the importance of the Caspian Sea region as a place of respite and defiance, noting that women are increasingly challenging the hijab rules. Signs that the regime might be nearing collapse include a potential breakdown in the security services’ willingness to use force and high-ranking officials distancing themselves from the leadership. However, the continued loyalty of the IRGC remains a major obstacle.

VIII. Notable Quotes

• “We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars we end.” – (Attributed to an unnamed source, likely referencing US foreign policy)
• “This time feels different.” – (Repeated sentiment from Iranians interviewed by Roland Olifan, reflecting a recurring hope for change)
• “The thousandth cut for the regime.” – (Roland Olifan, describing the cumulative effect of ongoing protests)
• “The army may defect, but the IRGC will not.” – (Akar McCoy, emphasizing the IRGC’s unwavering loyalty to the regime)

IX. Technical Terms & Concepts

• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A powerful military and political organization in Iran, responsible for protecting the Islamic Republic and promoting its ideology.
• Rial: The official currency of Iran, which has experienced significant devaluation.
• Ayatollah: A high-ranking Shia cleric, often holding significant political power in Iran.
• Decapitation Strike: A military tactic aimed at removing the leadership of an enemy regime.
• Starlink: A satellite internet constellation providing internet access, used by protesters to circumvent the internet blackout.

Conclusion:

The situation in Iran remains highly volatile. While the protests represent a significant challenge to the regime, its survival is far from certain. The IRGC’s continued loyalty, the lack of a unified opposition, and the potential for foreign intervention to backfire all contribute to the uncertainty. The protests are fueled by deep-seated economic grievances, political repression, and a desire for fundamental change, but the path forward remains unclear. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether this wave of unrest will ultimately lead to regime change or be suppressed, as has happened in the past.