Why Iran's drought also has its roots in bad policies | DW News

Key Concepts

• Drought: A prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall, leading to a shortage of water.
• Cloud Seeding: A weather modification technique that involves introducing substances into clouds to encourage precipitation.
• Supercooled Water: Water in liquid form at temperatures below its freezing point.
• Orographic Clouds: Clouds formed by air being forced upward by mountains.
• Water Management: The planning, development, distribution, and management of the optimum use of water resources.
• Sanctions: Penalties imposed by one country on another for political or economic reasons.
• Economic Diversification: Expanding an economy to include a wider range of products and services.

Tehran's Severe Drought and Potential Evacuation

Tehran, the capital of Iran, is facing a severe drought, with officials warning its 10 million residents of a potential need to evacuate. The city's primary reservoir is at a critical 8% capacity, leading to regular water supply restrictions. The crisis is nationwide, with rainfall levels 85% below average, depleting reservoirs and causing shortages in electricity, gas, and water. Nineteen major dams, approximately 10% of Iran's total, have effectively run dry.

Cloud Seeding as a Solution

The Iranian government is employing cloud seeding, a technique that involves spraying particles like salt into clouds from airplanes to encourage droplet formation and induce rain. This method has been used by other countries like India, Pakistan, and Thailand to combat air pollution, and Malaysia and the UAE to induce rain, with varied results.

Technical Requirements for Cloud Seeding:

• Monitoring System: Essential to identify clouds with sufficient supercooled water and a lack of ice.
• Suitable Cloud Types: Cloud seeding is most effective with "orographic clouds," which are mountain-generated.
• Systematic Application: Consistent and well-timed application is crucial for success.

Effectiveness and Limitations:

• Potential Increase: Systematic cloud seeding of orographic clouds can potentially increase annual precipitation by 5% to 20%.
• Conditional Success: Cloud seeding is not a universal solution and requires specific atmospheric conditions.
• Does Not Address Root Causes: The technique does not resolve the underlying causes of the drought.

Tehran's location at the foothills of mountains provides favorable conditions for orographic cloud seeding. However, successful implementation requires recognizing and acting upon opportune moments, coupled with effective water management to capture precipitation when it occurs.

Root Causes: Bad Policies and Inefficient Water Use

Nema Shakri, Director of the Institute of GeoHydroinformatics at Hamburg's University of Technology, argues that Iran's water crisis is not solely due to climate change but is significantly amplified by "bad policies."

Key Policy Failures Identified:

• Excessive Dam Construction: While mentioned, Shakri suggests this is not the primary issue.
• Proliferation of Wells: The number of wells has dramatically increased from around 50,000 a few decades ago to approximately 1 million.
• Agricultural Expansion: Significant water consumption is attributed to agricultural practices.
• National Priorities and Foreign Policy: Shakri emphasizes that expensive foreign policies and national priorities have led to environmental subsidies and international isolation.
• Sanctions: International sanctions limit access to modern technologies, including state-of-the-art monitoring systems, wastewater treatment plants, and crucial finance and investment for the water sector.

Inefficient Water Use:

• Farming Dominance: 80% to 90% of Iran's water is used for farming.
• Wastage: Environmentalists estimate that trillions of liters are wasted annually due to inefficient irrigation and leaky infrastructure.

Proposed Solutions and Political Priorities

Shakri advocates for a fundamental reordering of Iran's governance structure and national priorities towards sustainability, long-term public welfare, and technical intervention. He believes that addressing the water crisis requires more than just superficial water management.

Economic Diversification:

• High Value Products: Iran needs to diversify its economy to produce high-value products per liter of water consumed. For example, manufacturing a Tesla generates more economic value per liter of water than growing vegetables.
• Barriers to Diversification: Sanctions and government-set priorities hinder the development of such industries.

Political Will and Urgency:

• Low Political Priority: Shakri believes that despite the severity of the crisis, dealing with the water problem is not high enough on the political agenda. He finds the suggestion of praying for rain to be an "awkward solution" given the scale of the emergency.

Evacuation of Tehran: A Practicality Check

The suggestion of evacuating Tehran, made by the president, has been met with criticism. Shakri views it as an impractical solution, merely transferring the problem elsewhere without addressing the root causes. He believes there is no concrete plan for such an evacuation.

Conclusion

Iran's water crisis is a multifaceted problem stemming from a combination of climate change impacts and detrimental government policies. While cloud seeding is being explored as a short-term measure, it fails to address the fundamental issues of inefficient water use, unsustainable agricultural practices, and the broader economic and political landscape shaped by sanctions and misplaced national priorities. A long-term solution requires a significant shift towards sustainability, economic diversification, and a genuine prioritization of water resource management by the government.