Why India and Pakistan fight over Kashmir and what’s at stake for US and China - BBC World Service

Kashmir: A Volatile Region Between Nuclear Powers

Key Concepts:

• Kashmir Dispute: Territorial conflict between India, Pakistan, and China over the Kashmir region.
• Line of Control (LoC): The de facto border between Indian-administered and Pakistani-administered Kashmir.
• Instrument of Accession: The legal document signed by Maharaja Hari Singh in 1947, acceding Kashmir to India.
• Article 370: A former article in the Indian constitution granting special autonomous status to Jammu and Kashmir, revoked in 2019.
• Aksai Chin: A region in Kashmir controlled by China.
• Shaksgam Valley: A region ceded by Pakistan to China.
• Nuclear Parity: The state of having roughly equal nuclear weapons capabilities, in this case, between India and Pakistan.
• Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): China's global infrastructure development strategy.

1. Historical Context and Partition:

• The Kashmir dispute originated from the partition of British India in 1947, which created India (Hindu-majority) and Pakistan (Muslim-majority).
• The partition was rushed and poorly executed by Sir Cyril Radcliffe, leading to mass displacement, violence, and an estimated one million deaths.
• Princely states like Kashmir were given the option to join either India or Pakistan.

2. The Accession of Kashmir and the First Indo-Pakistani War (1947):

• Kashmir had a Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, and a Muslim-majority population.
• Hari Singh initially wanted to remain independent.
• Tribal militias from Pakistan attacked Kashmir, prompting Hari Singh to request military assistance from India.
• India agreed to help on the condition that Hari Singh sign the Instrument of Accession, formally acceding Kashmir to India.
• This triggered the first war between India and Pakistan in October 1947.
• The war ended with a UN-brokered ceasefire on January 1, 1949, establishing the Line of Control (LoC) as a temporary border.
• The UN recommended a plebiscite for Kashmiris to decide their future, but it never materialized due to both countries' refusal to demilitarize.

3. China's Involvement:

• In 1954, China began constructing a highway through Aksai Chin, a region in Kashmir.
• The highway, completed in 1957, connected Tibet and Xinjiang.
• The Sino-Indian War of 1962 resulted in China retaining Aksai Chin.
• Pakistan ceded the Shaksgam Valley to China in 1963, strengthening their alliance.

4. Cold War Dynamics:

• India aligned with the Soviet Union, receiving aid from the USSR.
• The US provided Pakistan with billions of dollars in military aid, seeking a foothold in the region to counter communism.
• After the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, the US used Pakistan to support anti-communist fighters.

5. Insurgency and Nuclearization (1990s):

• The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1989 led to the redirection of insurgent groups towards Kashmir.
• These groups aimed to push India out of Kashmir.
• India accused Pakistan of supporting these insurgent groups, which Pakistan denied.
• Both India and Pakistan developed nuclear weapons, becoming nuclear states by 1998, escalating the stakes of the Kashmir conflict.

6. The War on Terror and Shifting Alliances (Post-9/11):

• Following the September 11th attacks, the US launched its global war on terror and used Pakistan as a base to fight the Taliban.
• The US pressured Pakistan to tackle extremism.
• China's growing dominance led the US to align more closely with India as a counterbalance.
• US trade with India increased, and the US agreed to help India with its nuclear energy program.
• China and Pakistan strengthened their economic ties, with Pakistan receiving significant infrastructure investment as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

7. Diplomatic Stalemates:

• Attempts at diplomatic resolutions in Kashmir have been unsuccessful due to disagreements on how to approach diplomacy.
• India opposes international mediation, while Pakistan favors it.
• In 2019, President Trump claimed that Indian Prime Minister Modi had asked him to mediate on Kashmir, which the Indian government denied.

8. Revocation of Article 370 (2019):

• In 2019, the Indian government revoked Article 370 from India's constitution, stripping Indian-administered Kashmir of its autonomy and integrating it into India.
• The government also announced plans to resettle displaced Kashmiri Hindus in the valley.
• Pakistan condemned the move, and China stated that it damaged its territorial claims in Kashmir.
• India accompanied the move with a significant military presence in the region, leading to human rights abuses and detentions.

9. Recent Escalation (April 2025):

• In April 2025, a militant attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir led to a renewed escalation.
• India blamed Pakistan and responded with airstrikes, while Pakistan retaliated with missiles, drones, and fighter jets.
• Chinese high-tech jets and missiles were reportedly used in combat for the first time.
• A ceasefire halted further escalation, but the situation remains volatile.

10. Conclusion:

The Kashmir conflict is a complex and deeply rooted issue with historical, political, and strategic dimensions. It involves territorial disputes, national identities, and the interests of major global powers. The lack of a resolution and the presence of nuclear weapons in the region make it a significant threat to international peace and security. The future of Kashmir remains uncertain, with the Kashmiri people's right to self-determination still unfulfilled. The core question remains: "Who are Kashmiris and where do they belong?"