Why I’m Still Buying | Rekt Vision

Key Concepts

• Risk Assets
• Four-Year Cycle (Bitcoin)
• Market Sentiment
• M2 Money Supply
• Buying Opportunities

Bullish Outlook on Risk Assets and the Four-Year Cycle

The speaker expresses a bullish sentiment towards risk assets. This optimism is tempered by an awareness of the prevailing four-year cycle theory within the Bitcoin community, often referred to as the "OG Bitcoiners." The speaker's initial bet was that this cycle would extend, suggesting a longer duration than typically anticipated.

Market Sentiment and Potential for Extended Dip

A significant portion of the market, estimated at 30% to 50%, adheres to the four-year cycle. The speaker acknowledges that if this collective belief holds, it could lead to a temporary, albeit not necessarily deep, dip in the market. This potential dip is viewed not as a cause for concern but as a "buying period." The speaker emphasizes the importance of respecting market sentiment, even if it deviates from their personal outlook.

Correlation to M2 Money Supply and Future Outlook

The speaker anticipates a strong return of the correlation between risk assets and the M2 money supply. Projections indicate that M2 will continue to increase in 2026. This expectation reinforces the speaker's "buyer" stance, suggesting confidence in the market's upward trajectory driven by monetary expansion.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The speaker maintains a bullish outlook on risk assets, acknowledging the influence of the four-year Bitcoin cycle on market sentiment. While a potential, short-lived dip is anticipated due to this sentiment, it is viewed as a favorable buying opportunity. The speaker's conviction is further strengthened by the projected increase in M2 money supply, which is expected to drive a renewed correlation with risk assets, leading to a positive outlook for buyers in 2026.