Why Gold Is Running Now While Bitcoin Waits | Mark Moss

Key Concepts

• Debasement Trade: The idea that gold’s price increase is driven by concerns about currency devaluation due to government monetary policy.
• Sound Money: The principle of holding assets with intrinsic value and limited supply, like gold and Bitcoin, as a store of wealth.
• Geopolitical Distrust: Increasing lack of confidence in international relations and the security of assets held within traditional financial systems.
• Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle: The historically observed pattern of Bitcoin price peaks approximately 18 months after its halving events.
• Fractional Reserve Banking: The practice of banks lending out a portion of deposited funds, creating a multiple effect on the money supply.
• Trust in Monetary Systems: The fundamental belief in the stability and security of a nation’s currency and financial institutions.
• Bitcoin as Digital Gold: The comparison of Bitcoin to gold as a store of value and hedge against economic uncertainty.
• Stablecoins & Treasury Purchases: The growing trend of stablecoin issuers investing in US Treasury bonds and the potential implications for the financial system.

The Shifting Narrative Behind Gold’s Price Surge & Bitcoin’s Role

The interview, conducted at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2026, centers on the recent surge in gold prices – surpassing $5,000 – and its relationship to Bitcoin, broader economic trends, and the evolving concept of trust in the global financial system. Mark Moss, a Bitcoin advocate with a background in traditional finance, offers a nuanced perspective, challenging the conventional “debasement trade” explanation for gold’s rise.

Gold’s Recent Performance & the Debasement Trade Questioned

The discussion begins with acknowledging gold’s impressive recent gains, outperforming Bitcoin over the past year. However, Moss argues that attributing this solely to inflation or currency debasement is misleading. He points out that despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing and high inflation (9% CPI) between 2020 and 2024, gold’s price remained stagnant during that period. Conversely, Bitcoin experienced an 800% increase. This discrepancy, he contends, suggests a different driving force behind the current gold rally. He notes Peter Schiff’s enthusiastic response to gold’s gains, highlighting the ongoing debate between gold and Bitcoin proponents.

The Rise of Geopolitical Distrust as a Primary Driver

Moss posits that the primary catalyst for gold’s recent surge is a breakdown in trust – specifically, geopolitical distrust. This distrust, he argues, originated in 2022 with the US seizure of Russian bank accounts, signaling to nations that their assets were not secure. This event prompted countries to seek alternative ways to preserve value, leading to increased gold purchases. He further emphasizes the rhetoric of “America First” and statements like “might makes right” as contributing to this global erosion of trust. Ray Dalio’s observation that governments are caught between a sovereign debt crisis and inflationary money printing reinforces this point, creating a “heads you lose, tails you lose” scenario for bondholders.

Bitcoin vs. Gold: Different Assets, Different Buyers

Moss stresses that Bitcoin and gold are distinct assets appealing to different investors for different reasons. He rejects the notion that they move in lockstep, noting their historically inverse correlation. While acknowledging the “digital gold” analogy, he emphasizes that Bitcoin is not simply a digital version of gold. He highlights the importance of understanding the different motivations of buyers: gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, while Bitcoin represents a more optimistic, future-oriented view of a decentralized financial system.

Bitcoin’s Outlook & Institutional Adoption

The conversation shifts to Bitcoin’s future, particularly in light of gold’s recent performance. Moss acknowledges Bitcoin’s recent price correction (around $87,000 at the time of the interview) but maintains a bullish long-term outlook.

The Four-Year Cycle & Relative Strength

He references the historically observed four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price, linked to its halving events (where the block reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin). He points out that the recent peak in October 2025 aligned with this cycle. Importantly, he suggests looking at Bitcoin’s price relative to gold, as this provides a more accurate picture of its performance, unaffected by dollar inflation. He notes that Bitcoin, when priced in gold, appears to be re-entering its four-year cycle, currently touching the 200-week moving average – a historically strong buying opportunity.

2026 Outlook: Tailwinds & Potential Catalysts

Moss identifies several potential catalysts for Bitcoin’s growth in 2026:

• Potential Trump Policies: A Trump administration focused on lowering interest rates (potentially to 1%) could be highly favorable for Bitcoin.
• Federal Reserve Leadership Change: A more dovish Federal Reserve chair, potentially appointed by Trump, could further stimulate the economy and benefit Bitcoin.
• Stablecoin Regulation & Treasury Purchases: The recent legislation allowing stablecoins and their subsequent investment in US Treasury bonds could have complex effects, potentially neutralizing the ability of other countries to maintain independent currencies.
• The Clarity Act & Institutional Adoption: The potential passage of the Clarity Act and other favorable regulations could remove barriers to institutional investment in Bitcoin.

MicroStrategy & Bitcoin Leverage

The discussion touches on MicroStrategy’s significant Bitcoin holdings (709,000 BTC with an average cost of $75,979). Moss argues that MicroStrategy’s strategy of intelligent leverage – borrowing to purchase more Bitcoin – could lead to outperformance compared to simply holding Bitcoin. He draws a parallel to gold mining companies, which are typically valued based on their assets in the ground, suggesting that Bitcoin companies should be valued similarly.

The Banking System & the Threat of Stablecoins

Moss delves into the potential disruption posed by stablecoins to the traditional banking system. He explains that stablecoins, by offering yield and allowing users to custody their own funds, bypass the fractional reserve banking model. This model relies on banks lending out deposited funds, creating a multiple effect on the money supply. If stablecoins gain widespread adoption, banks could lose their core functions of storing money, facilitating payments, and providing loans. He notes the banks’ recent fight against stablecoins that pay yield as evidence of this concern. He also points to Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio’s recent statements as acknowledging the shifting monetary landscape.

Three Archetypes of Bitcoin Investors

Moss concludes by outlining three archetypes of Bitcoin investors:

1. Long-Term Holders: Individuals focused on accumulating Bitcoin regardless of short-term price fluctuations.
2. Fund Managers: Professionals who manage Bitcoin allocations with a focus on risk management and quarterly/annual performance.
3. Traders: Individuals who actively buy and sell Bitcoin to profit from short-term price movements.

He emphasizes that the optimal strategy depends on individual goals and risk tolerance, but ultimately advocates for a long-term perspective and a focus on accumulating more Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The interview paints a picture of a rapidly evolving financial landscape driven by eroding trust in traditional institutions and a growing interest in alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin. While gold’s recent surge is likely fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains strong, particularly with the prospect of favorable regulatory developments and increasing institutional adoption. The key takeaway is that the current environment demands a nuanced understanding of the forces at play and a willingness to adapt to a changing monetary order.