Why Gaza won’t be rebuilt anytime soon

Key Concepts

• Scale of Destruction in Gaza: Unprecedented, with 80-90% of buildings destroyed, over 300,000 homes damaged or destroyed, rendering over a million people homeless. This is significantly higher than previous conflicts, with 15 times more homes destroyed compared to the 2014 war.
• Egyptian-Drafted Plan: A five-year proposal for rebuilding Gaza, focusing on rubble clearance, housing construction, infrastructure development, and rebuilding governing institutions.
• Israeli-American Alternative Proposal: A limited reconstruction plan focusing on the Israeli-controlled side of Gaza, involving modular towns or villages for a few thousand Palestinians.
• Obstacles to Reconstruction: Significant impediments exist for both plans, including the sheer volume of rubble, Israeli veto power over material imports, immense financial costs, and the political condition of Hamas's disarmament.
• Interim Solutions: In the absence of successful reconstruction, the focus is likely to remain on rehabilitation, providing basic services, temporary shelters, and essential infrastructure like water.
• Underlying Political Challenge: The core issue hindering reconstruction is the unresolved question of Hamas's disarmament and security guarantees for Gaza.

Scale of Destruction

The transcript highlights the catastrophic level of destruction in Gaza, stating that 80 to 90% of buildings have been destroyed, leaving the territory in ruins. This is characterized as "unprecedented."

• Housing: Over 300,000 homes have been destroyed or heavily damaged, making them uninhabitable. This directly impacts more than half of Gaza's population, with at least one million people now homeless.
• Comparison to Previous Wars: The destruction is starkly contrasted with the 2014 war, where 18,000 homes were destroyed. The current conflict has resulted in approximately 15 times more destroyed homes.
• Other Infrastructure:
  • Businesses: 80-85% of businesses are destroyed.
  • Farmland: 80-something percent of farmland has been damaged, with most of it located on the Israeli-occupied side.
  • Road Network: Two-thirds of the road network has been destroyed.
  • General Impact: Anything necessary for sustaining life in Gaza has been "reduced to rubble."

Proposed Reconstruction Plans

Two main plans are discussed as having the most recent support or movement:

1. Egyptian-Drafted Plan

This plan is described as a "proper proposal" and outlines a five-year process for rebuilding Gaza.

• Phase 1: Rubble Clearance (Approx. 6 months)
  • Focus on clearing an estimated 55 to 60 million tons of rubble.
  • Some rubble will be mixed with sand to create a substrate for land reclamation off the coast, where Egypt and Arab states envision building a port and other vital infrastructure.
• Phase 2: Housing and Basic Services (Approx. 2.5 years)
  • Construction of at least 200,000 new homes.
  • Parallel rebuilding of clinics, schools, and other essential services and infrastructure.
• Phase 3: Governing Institutions (Years 4 and 5)
  • Rebuilding governing institutions in Gaza, beyond just homes and small businesses.

Impediments to the Egyptian Plan:

• Unrealistic Timelines: Engineers believe the rubble clearance alone could take closer to six years, not six months, given the immense volume (equivalent to "13 Great Pyramids of Giza worth of debris").
• Israeli Veto at Rafah Crossing: Israel has veto power over materials entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing. Historically, Israel has restricted large amounts of construction materials, and this is expected to continue as long as Hamas is in control.
• Enormous Cost: The plan requires an estimated $55 billion.
• Funding Dependency: Funds must come from donor countries, primarily wealthy Gulf monarchies. However, these countries have stated they will not contribute unless Hamas is disarmed and there are assurances against future conflict. The refusal of Hamas to lay down arms is a major barrier to significant funding.
• Labor Force: While Gaza has a large, unemployed labor force available, and Egypt can provide expertise, these factors are overshadowed by the aforementioned obstacles.

2. Israeli-American Alternative Proposal

This proposal emerged due to the lack of progress on disarming Hamas and rebuilding Palestinian-controlled areas.

• Concept: Limited, small-scale reconstruction on the Israeli-controlled side of Gaza, along the "yellow line" (ceasefire line).
• Implementation: Building a "string of modular towns or modular villages" designed to house several thousand Palestinians, each with basic services like a clinic and school.
• Expansion: If successful, the project would expand to build more such settlements elsewhere in Gaza.

Obstacles to the Israeli-American Plan:

• Palestinian Relocation: This plan involves rebuilding in Israeli-controlled territory where almost no Palestinians currently live. It would require convincing Palestinians to move into occupied territory, with no guarantee of free movement within that area. This is expected to be a "hard sell" for many Palestinians.
• Arab Country Boycott: Arab countries are unlikely to donate to this scheme, fearing it would legitimize and make permanent the partition of Gaza. Rebuilding in Israeli-controlled territory could mean the Palestinian-controlled territory may never be rebuilt, solidifying the "yellow line" as a permanent border.
• Business Rejection: Businessmen close to the Trump administration attempted to secure investment from a Gulf government for this project, but the government refused.

Interim Situation and Future Outlook

If neither plan moves forward soon, the "miserable status quo" is expected to persist.

• Continued Hardship: The majority of Gaza's population will remain homeless, unemployed, and struggling for basic necessities.
• Focus on Rehabilitation: The international community's efforts are likely to concentrate on rehabilitation rather than full reconstruction. This includes:
  • Providing a "modicum of basic services."
  • Building water infrastructure.
  • Delivering temporary shelters.
• Underlying Condition for Reconstruction: Ambitious reconstruction plans are contingent on resolving fundamental questions:
  • How to disarm Hamas.
  • How to secure Gaza.
  • How to create the conditions necessary for rebuilding.

Until these political and security issues are addressed, large-scale rebuilding efforts are unlikely to progress.