Why Europe needs more ammunition | DW News

Key Concepts

• Ammunition production capacity (Europe vs. Russia)
• TNT production and its relevance in modern warfare
• European defense spending and reliance on the US
• The impact of geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., potential changes in US foreign policy)
• Environmental regulations in TNT production
• The role of the European Union in defense funding and coordination

Ammunition Production Capacity: Europe vs. Russia

• Disparity in Capacity: A British research institute study revealed a 600% difference between Russian and European large-caliber ammunition production capacity. Russia can produce Europe's annual output in just two months.
• Russian Output: Russia can produce over 5 million artillery shells annually (3.5 million newly produced, 1.5 million from stockpiles/donations).
• European Ambition: The EU aims for 2 million artillery shells, but a figure between 2 and 5 million is needed for deterrence.
• Swedish Ballistic's Contribution: The new TNT factory will produce roughly 4,500 metric tons of TNT, enough for 450,000 artillery shells (10 kg of explosives per shell).

The Relevance of TNT in Modern Warfare

• Defense Tech vs. Manufacturing: The Western world excels in sophisticated defense systems (fighter jets, submarines, radar), but lacks manufacturing capabilities for high-volume production.
• TNT as a Necessary Component: While advanced technologies like drones and AI-driven air defenses are crucial, they are ineffective without explosive payloads. TNT is essential for lethal effects.
• Defense Spending Increase: Global military spending reached a new peak in 2024, totaling over 2.38 trillion euros, a 9.4% increase from 2023. This is the most rapid rise in a single year since the end of the Cold War.

European Defense Spending and Reliance on the US

• Outsourcing to the US: In 2024, 63% of defense procurements by European countries were from American manufacturers, totaling over 200 billion euros annually.
• Risk of Reliance: Depending on the US for commodities like ammunition, helmets, and drones poses a risk, especially during conflicts when large quantities are needed and export bans are possible.
• Need for Self-Sufficiency: The Ukraine conflict highlights the importance of self-sufficiency in defense production to avoid reliance on potentially unreliable partners.

Geopolitical Uncertainty and its Impact

• The "Trump Factor": Uncertainty surrounding potential shifts in US foreign policy (e.g., under a Trump administration) makes it risky for Europe to rely on the US for defense.
• Need for Independent Production: To ensure a reliable supply of necessary materials, Europe must develop its own production capabilities.

Environmental Regulations in TNT Production

• Historical Pollution: Traditional TNT production was heavily polluting due to batch-based processes, human intervention in acid removal, and inadequate wastewater management.
• Modern Regulations: Current European regulations (based on the CISO directive following an accident in Italy in the 1980s) impose strict requirements for managing processed acids, waste, and minimizing environmental impact in case of leakage.

The Role of the European Union

• Varm Europe Program: The Varm Europe program aims to address the fact that some EU economies cannot independently meet defense spending targets (3.5% or 5% of GDP).
• EU Involvement in Defense: The EU's engagement in defense matters, including financing scale-up and ramp-up efforts, is a crucial development.
• Slow Progress: While political decisions are being made, implementation takes time due to bureaucratic processes.

Ukraine's Ammunition Needs

• Artillery Fire Rate Disparity: Russia's artillery firing rate averages 10,000 rounds per day (3.6 million per year), while Ukraine's is limited to 1.8 to 6,000 rounds per day.
• Closing the Gap: Europe has the economic capacity to close the gap in ammunition production with Russia, but requires bold political and financial decisions and streamlined processes.

Conclusion

Europe faces a significant challenge in bolstering its defense capabilities, particularly in ammunition production. Over-reliance on the US, coupled with geopolitical uncertainties and slower production due to stricter regulations, necessitates a strategic shift towards self-sufficiency. The EU's involvement in defense funding and coordination, along with initiatives like the new Swedish TNT factory, represent crucial steps in addressing this challenge, but require sustained commitment and bold action to achieve meaningful results.