Why did the ceasefire fail in Syria and what about IS group detainees? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): A multi-ethnic alliance, predominantly Arab fighters (80%), led by Kurdish forces (PKK/YPG).
• Damascus Agreement (March 10, 2025 & subsequent signing): A mechanism to implement a prior agreement for Syrian government control over territories previously held by the SDF.
• Arab Factor: The shift in allegiance of Arab fighters within the SDF towards the Syrian government due to perceived alignment of interests.
• ISIS Prisoner Dilemma: The SDF’s control of ISIS prisoners and facilities (specifically Shadi and Capan prisons, and the Al-Hol/Iran camp) represents a key bargaining chip and security concern.
• US Involvement: US patrols are focused on securing ISIS prison facilities, particularly in Haka (Al-Hol/Iran camp), to prevent escapes and maintain regional stability.
• Coalition Against ISIS: Syria’s re-entry into the coalition against ISIS, formalized by an agreement between Presidents Assad and Trump.

Territorial Shifts and the Collapse of the Agreement

The recent agreement signed in Damascus between Syrian President Ahmed Shahara and the head of Syrian forces was not a new deal, but rather a mechanism to implement a prior understanding reached on March 10, 2025. The agreement’s collapse stemmed from resistance within the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), specifically from core PKK/YPG elements, who opposed ceding territory to the Syrian government. Over the last 48 hours, the Syrian government has regained significant territory previously held by the SDF, as illustrated on the map. The areas in light green represent territory reclaimed by Damascus, while the yellow areas remain under SDF control. Notably, the territorial shift occurred with “very little fighting,” primarily due to the demographic composition of the SDF.

The Significance of the Arab Factor

Approximately 80% of the fighters within the SDF are Arabs from the regions affected by the territorial changes. Following the fall of Assad a year prior, these Arab fighters shifted their allegiance to Damascus, perceiving their interests as aligned with the new government rather than the Kurdish rebellion. This shift in loyalty explains the rapid collapse of SDF control and the limited resistance encountered by Syrian forces. The regained territory is overwhelmingly Arab (99%), further reinforcing this explanation. This pattern was observed previously in Aleppo and Safar, indicating a consistent trend.

ISIS Prisoner Facilities: A Critical Point of Contention

Currently, the remaining territories held by the SDF – specifically in Alhul, Aro, and prison facilities – are primarily focused on detaining ISIS prisoners and their families. These facilities represent the SDF’s “last card” in negotiations. Simultaneously, Damascus views control of these facilities as crucial, aligning with its commitment to the coalition against ISIS, formalized in an agreement signed between President Assad and President Trump in Washington.

Reports of Jailbreaks and Prison Control

Reports surfaced regarding a potential jailbreak at the Shadi prison. However, the Syrian government has since retaken control of the prison, with mutual accusations of liberating Syrian ISIS detainees. The speaker dismissed the notion that President Shahara would intentionally release ISIS fighters, given the ongoing threat they pose to his rule.

Currently, a standoff continues at the Capan prison north of Raqqa, where Kurdish forces still hold the facility. In contrast, the central prison of Raqqa was peacefully taken back by Damascus authorities, even involving non-Syrian Kurdish counterparts. Fighting did occur at Shadi prison during the takeover.

US Involvement and Security Concerns

The United States is actively monitoring the situation, particularly concerning the security of ISIS prisoners. Footage shows US patrols in Haka, specifically securing the Al-Hol/Iran camp – the largest prison facility in the area – to prevent potential escapes. This demonstrates the US commitment to containing the ISIS threat and maintaining stability in the region.

Historical Context and Coalition Alignment

The conflict between Ahmed Shahara and the Islamic State dates back to 2013. Syria’s recent re-entry into the coalition against ISIS, solidified by the agreement with President Trump, underscores the strategic importance of controlling ISIS prisoners and preventing their resurgence. The control of ISIS prisoners is therefore a key leverage point for both the SDF and Damascus.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The recent developments in Syria demonstrate a significant shift in power dynamics, driven by the realignment of Arab fighters within the SDF towards the Syrian government. The SDF’s remaining leverage lies in its control of ISIS prisoners, a factor of critical importance to both Damascus and the international coalition. The US is actively engaged in securing these facilities to prevent escapes and maintain regional stability. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing standoffs and the potential for further conflict, but the trend indicates a strengthening of Syrian government control and a diminishing role for the SDF in the territories previously under its control.