Why Crimea is so important to efforts to reach an end to the war | DW News

Summary of YouTube Video: Crimea's Importance in the Russia-Ukraine War

Key Concepts:

• Crimea: A peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, considered by Ukraine and most of the international community as Ukrainian territory.
• Sevastopol: A key port city in Crimea, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.
• De facto vs. De jure: De facto refers to the actual state of affairs (Russia controlling Crimea), while de jure refers to the legal recognition of ownership (Ukraine claiming Crimea).
• Security Guarantees: Assurances, potentially from Western nations, that Ukraine will be protected from future Russian aggression.
• Territorial Integrity: The principle that a country has the right to control its own territory without external interference.
• Martial Law: Temporary rule by military authorities, during which certain laws are suspended.
• Kerch Strait Bridge: A bridge connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, used for military resupply.
• ATACMS: US-supplied long-range missiles used by Ukraine to strike Russian targets in Crimea.

Crimea's Significance to Both Sides

• Ukraine: Views Crimea as an integral part of its territory, with its annexation by Russia in 2014 marking the beginning of the current conflict. Ukrainians see Crimea as symbolic of Russia's broader ambition to dominate Ukraine and undermine its independence.
• Russia: Considers Crimea part of its territory and crucial for its strategic interests. The port of Sevastopol allows Russia to dominate the Black Sea and access the Mediterranean. Annexation of Crimea was a high point for Putin's rule and a lynchpin of the regime's patriotic claims to legitimacy.

Historical Context

• In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred control of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine when both were part of the Soviet Union.
• After the USSR's collapse in 1991, Crimea became an autonomous territory within Ukraine, but Russia maintained a lease on the Sevastopol naval base.
• In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea following a referendum widely condemned as rigged.

Military Importance and Ukrainian Strikes

• Russia used Crimea as a staging area for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
• Ukraine has targeted Crimea with strikes, including the Kerch Strait Bridge in 2022 and 2023, and Russian military assets in Sevastopol, using ATACMS missiles.
• These strikes aim to disrupt Russian supply lines and make Crimea too costly for Russia to hold.

Trump's Position and International Law

• Former US President Donald Trump has suggested recognizing Crimea as part of Russia to achieve a peace deal.
• This stance angers Ukrainians and contradicts international law and the Ukrainian Constitution, which consider Crimea part of Ukraine.
• Legal experts warn that recognizing Russia's annexation would set a dangerous precedent, encouraging other countries to seize territory by force.

Ukrainian Perspectives

• Ukrainians interviewed expressed a strong desire to return Crimea to Ukrainian control.
• They fear that recognizing Russia's annexation would embolden Putin to pursue further territorial expansion.
• Some Ukrainians acknowledge the difficulty of retaking Crimea but believe that territorial concessions would show weakness and encourage further Russian aggression.

Professor Kramer's Analysis (Harvard University)

• Recognizing Crimea as de jure Russian territory would be a significant departure from the Cold War policy of not recognizing the Baltic states as legally part of the Soviet Union.
• Such recognition would essentially acknowledge Russia's right to conquer foreign territory.
• Even if Zelenskyy wanted to cede Crimea, the Ukrainian Constitution prohibits it, and the parliament would never accept such a deal.
• Crimea's heavy militarization under Russian occupation poses a future threat to Ukraine's security.
• Professor Kramer suggests potential circumstances under which Ukraine might consider yielding Crimea, such as:
  • Formal Russian acknowledgment of illegal occupation and annexation.
  • Reparations of 50 billion euros.
  • Demilitarization of the peninsula.
  • International peacekeeping presence in Crimea.
  • However, he believes these conditions are unacceptable to the Russian government.

Professor Good's Analysis (Carlton University)

• For most Ukrainians, Russia's war on Ukraine began with the occupation of Crimea in 2014.
• Prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukrainian public opinion still favored returning Crimea, but the primary obstacles were Russia's military presence and the duration of the occupation.
• Russia has effectively naturalized Crimea into its domestic politics and society.
• It would be extremely difficult for any Ukrainian politician to sell the idea of ceding Crimea to the Ukrainian population.
• A temporary measure involving the ongoing occupation of Crimea, linked to security guarantees from the West, could potentially lead to a durable peace.
• However, any territorial concession would embolden Russia further, either in the short or long term.
• If Ukraine were to regain Crimea, it would require a complete reorientation of infrastructure (water, electricity, transportation) and a transitional period.
• The future of Russia's base in Sevastopol remains an open question.

Conclusion

The status of Crimea is a major obstacle to ending the Russia-Ukraine war. While some, like Trump, see it as a bargaining chip, Ukrainians view it as an integral part of their country and a symbol of Russian aggression. Recognizing Russia's annexation would set a dangerous precedent, but regaining Crimea would be a difficult and complex process. A potential solution might involve a temporary occupation linked to strong security guarantees from the West, but even that would be a hard sell to the Ukrainian public. The future of Crimea remains uncertain, but it is clear that it will continue to be a central issue in the conflict.