Why civil war is brewing in Iran

Key Concepts

• Polarization: The increasing division within Iranian society between pro-regime and pro-royalist factions.
• Quiet Civil War: The escalating violence and breakdown of social cohesion in Iran, characterized by armed conflict and a loss of faith in peaceful protest.
• Royalists: Supporters of restoring the Pahlavi dynasty (the Shah’s family) to power.
• Regimeists: Supporters of the current Islamic Republic and its leadership.
• Tribal Vengeance: The resurgence of localized, tribal-based calls for retribution and armed resistance.
• External Intervention: The potential role of external actors, particularly the United States, in influencing the situation in Iran.

The Escalating Crisis in Iran: A Shift Towards Violent Conflict

The situation in Iran, while outwardly appearing calm with shops reopening, is deeply marked by mourning and a growing sense of a “quiet civil war.” The streets retain the “smell of blood and ashes,” indicative of the recent brutal crackdown on protests and the escalating violence. The country is fracturing along increasingly rigid lines, primarily between supporters of the current regime and those advocating for the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty (royalists).

The Deepening Divide: Regime vs. Royalists

The division isn’t simply ideological; both sides accuse each other of employing mercenaries. The regime alleges protesters are collaborating with Israel and are “terrorists,” while protesters claim the regime has deployed Shia militias from Iraq and elsewhere to suppress dissent. This mutual distrust fosters a belief that the only resolution lies in further violence, a stark departure from the previously prevalent peaceful protest movements. Both sides are increasingly discussing “resorting to arms to kill the other.”

The recent protests have been significantly more violent than previous iterations, with bloodshed occurring on both sides. Reports detail protesters attacking regime forces with knives, even resulting in beheadings, alongside the torching of symbolic institutions like banks, shopping centers, and mosques. The leadership of previous protest movements, focused on constitutional reform, has been marginalized, replaced by a more radicalized and vengeful sentiment. There’s a growing despair that peaceful protest will not yield change, leading to a belief that force is the only viable path.

Political Landscape: Absent Leadership and Proxy Control

The political landscape is characterized by a degree of absent leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is described as fearful of a potential US strike and largely confined to a bunker, delegating day-to-day command. Similarly, Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, appears to be a figurehead with limited direct control, with individuals claiming to act on his behalf driving the royalist agenda. Pahlavi is portrayed as a “captive” of those running the royalist movement, rather than its commander.

The Catalyst for Escalation: Brutality and Humiliation

The rapid shift towards violent conflict is attributed to several factors. The scale of the killings surpasses anything seen in the history of the Islamic Republic, but equally impactful is the regime’s perceived deliberate humiliation of the deceased and their families. This includes piling up bodies in morgues, demanding payment for body recovery, and restricting funeral arrangements. This treatment has “exacerbated the anger” and fueled the desire for retribution. This anger is compounded by a continuing economic crisis, worsened by the internet shutdown crippling the digital economy, exponentially rising prices, and a plummeting rial.

The Rise of Tribal Vengeance and External Mobilization

The desperation has triggered a revival of tribal demands for vengeance, particularly in provinces like Lorestan and Ilam, where protests initially erupted. Videos circulating online show tribal elders in fatigues, armed with rifles, calling for revenge and mobilizing their tribes. Exiled opposition groups are also attempting to mobilize support and acquire weapons for those within Iran, mirroring the transition from protest to rebellion seen in Syria. There is a growing sense of planning for a “next round of militant showdown” on all sides.

The Potential for External Intervention and its Uncertain Outcomes

The “wild card” in this volatile situation is the United States, specifically President Trump and the naval forces positioned near Iran. A US military strike would shift the initiative to external actors. Historically, the West has attempted regime change in Iran at least three times in the last century, often with relative success, avoiding the prolonged civil wars seen in Iraq and Libya. However, the feasibility of a “clinical surgical strike” remains uncertain.

Even with potential US intervention, a clear path forward is elusive. Khamenei is viewed by some, even within the regime, as “past his expiry date” and a liability. His removal could lead to the Revolutionary Guard seizing control, failing to satisfy protesters, or trigger further attempts at regime change and continued conflict from remnants of the existing regime. The prospect of greater bloodshed and civil war remains highly likely.

Notable Quotes

• “This is very much a kind of a royalistled demand for change and increasingly a demand for change through force.” – Illustrates the shift in the nature of the protests.
• “It isn't just shock at the scale of the killing… It's also the way in which the regime seems intent on humiliating the memory of the dead.” – Highlights a key driver of escalating anger and violence.
• “I don't think there'd be much love lost in Iran if Ali was to go. He's kind of I think even from inside his own camp inside the regime he's seen as in some ways past his expiry date and if anything of a liability.” – Reveals internal dissent within the regime regarding Khamenei’s leadership.

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Shia Militia: Armed groups primarily composed of Shia Muslims, often supported by Iran, and operating in countries like Iraq and Syria.
• Pahlavi Dynasty: The ruling family of Iran from 1925 to 1979, overthrown by the Islamic Revolution.
• Ayatollah: A high-ranking Shia cleric, often holding significant political authority in Iran.
• Revolutionary Guard (IRGC): A powerful military organization in Iran responsible for protecting the Islamic Republic and promoting its ideology.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The situation in Iran has rapidly deteriorated, transitioning from protest to a “quiet civil war” characterized by escalating violence, deep polarization, and a loss of faith in peaceful resolution. The regime’s brutal response and perceived humiliation of victims, coupled with a worsening economic crisis, have fueled a surge in anger and a demand for change through force. The political landscape is fragmented, with absent leadership and proxy control. While external intervention, particularly from the US, remains a possibility, it carries significant risks and does not guarantee a peaceful outcome. The prospect of further bloodshed and a descent into full-scale civil war appears increasingly inevitable.