Why China is surging its nuclear forces | DW News

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Triad: The capability to deploy nuclear weapons from land (silos/mobile launchers), sea (submarines), and air (bombers).
• No First Use (NFU): A policy where a state pledges not to be the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.
• Launch Under Attack: A military posture where a nation prepares to launch its nuclear weapons upon detecting an incoming strike, before the enemy missiles impact.
• Dual-Capable Missiles: Systems (like the DF-26) capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear warheads, creating ambiguity during crises.
• Structural Realism: A theory of international relations suggesting that states compete for power due to the anarchic nature of the global system, driving China’s military expansion.
• MIRV (Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles): Technology allowing a single missile to carry multiple warheads, increasing target capacity and complicating missile defense.
• Hypersonic Glide Vehicles: Weapons that travel at high speeds and maneuver, making them difficult for traditional missile defense systems to track and intercept.

1. The Nuclear Breakout: Scale and Speed

China is currently undergoing a rapid, historical expansion of its nuclear arsenal. While historically maintaining a "minimal" force of under 300 warheads, the Pentagon projects China will possess 1,500 nuclear weapons by 2035.

• Key Driver: Xi Jinping’s "bottom-line thinking" and his belief that a showdown with the West is inevitable.
• Strategic Logic: Xi views a small arsenal as vulnerable to a preemptive "checkmate" by the U.S. A larger, more survivable force is intended to deter Western intervention in regional conflicts, specifically regarding Taiwan.
• Infrastructure: The discovery of over 300 new ICBM silos in western China demonstrates a shift toward a more robust, land-based deterrent.

2. The Nuclear Triad and Geographic Constraints

China has officially unveiled a full nuclear triad, mirroring the capabilities of the U.S. and Russia.

• Land: Expansion of silo-based ICBMs (e.g., DF-5C, DF-31BJ) and new, previously unknown systems like the DF-61.
• Sea: The JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) provides longer range, allowing China to target the U.S. mainland from the relative safety of the South China Sea.
• Air: The introduction of the CJ-1 air-launched ballistic missile completes the triad.
• Geographic Challenge: China faces "semi-encirclement" by U.S. allies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines). Control of Taiwan is viewed by Chinese strategists as essential for gaining undetected access to the deep waters of the Pacific, which are necessary for submarine survivability.

3. Regional Deterrence and "Dual-Capable" Risks

Beyond strategic ICBMs, China has invested heavily in theater-based nuclear weapons.

• The "Guam Killer": The DF-26 intermediate-range missile is designed to strike U.S. bases in the Pacific.
• Ambiguity: Because many of these missiles are "dual-capable," experts like James Acton warn that in a crisis, the U.S. might misinterpret a conventional missile launch as a nuclear one, potentially triggering an accidental escalation.

4. Doctrine and the "Putin Playbook"

There is growing skepticism regarding China’s "No First Use" (NFU) policy.

• The Russian Influence: Xi Jinping has observed how Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats successfully deterred NATO from direct intervention in Ukraine. Analysts suggest China may be adopting a similar strategy to gain a "free hand" in regional adventurism.
• Loopholes: While China maintains its NFU declaration, military planners have reportedly studied scenarios where they might threaten nuclear use to deter conventional attacks on strategic targets.
• Launch Under Attack: The development of advanced early-warning systems, potentially with Russian assistance, suggests China is moving toward a "launch under attack" posture. Experts warn this creates a "hair-trigger" environment where false alarms could lead to unintended nuclear war.

5. The Concept of "Limited Nuclear War"

China’s focus on regional nuclear forces suggests it is preparing for the possibility of a "limited" nuclear conflict—a scenario where nuclear weapons are used against military targets (e.g., aircraft carriers or bases) rather than cities, in an attempt to gain leverage without triggering total annihilation.

Synthesis and Conclusion

China’s nuclear expansion is not merely a quantitative increase; it is a fundamental shift in military posture designed to challenge U.S. global dominance. By building a survivable triad, developing hypersonic and dual-capable technologies, and potentially adopting a more aggressive signaling strategy inspired by Russia, Beijing is attempting to create a nuclear "backstop" for its regional ambitions. The primary danger identified is the erosion of transparency and the increased risk of miscalculation, as China’s rapid buildup forces the U.S. and its allies to react, creating a volatile cycle of strategic competition that threatens global stability.