Why China and Russia don't fear the West

Key Concepts

• Deterrence
• Cold War Doctrines
• Autocratic Rivals
• Liberal Democracies
• Ambiguous and Deniable Actions
• Credible Counter Threats
• Escalation Management
• Allied Burden Sharing
• Cyber Hacks
• Acts of Sabotage
• Submarine Cable Attacks
• Acts of Arson

The West's Struggle to Intimidate Autocratic Rivals

The video discusses the current global landscape where liberal democracies are finding it increasingly difficult to intimidate autocratic rivals like China and Russia. This struggle is characterized by escalating risks taken by these adversaries, such as Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace and Chinese bullying of Pacific allies. These actions are perceived as deliberate tests of Western resolve and attempts to sow division between the US and its allies.

The Complexity of Modern Deterrence vs. the Cold War

A central theme is the contrast between the Cold War era and the present day in terms of deterrence. During the Cold War, there was a clearer understanding of the "rules of the game" between the West and the Communist bloc. Signals of threatening behavior were generally understood, allowing for calculated decisions on escalation or de-escalation. This predictability, despite the inherent danger and close calls, prevented nuclear war.

In contrast, the current environment is marked by a lack of agreed-upon rules, making risk management significantly more complex. The West's unity is also questioned, with figures like President Trump expressing skepticism about the US's role in global policing and advocating for allies to bear more of the cost of their defense.

Russia's Tactics and the West's Dilemma

Vladimir Putin is highlighted as a master of destabilizing Western countries through ambiguous and deniable actions. These include cyber hacks, drone incursions, and acts of sabotage. The difficulty in definitively proving Russian involvement is a key element of this strategy, as it complicates the Western response and creates divisions on the appropriate level of retaliation.

The transcript points out a significant asymmetry in response capabilities. While Russia might engage in actions like cutting submarine cables or committing acts of arson, responsible Western governments are not inclined to retaliate with similar, potentially destabilizing, actions like burning down shopping centers in Moscow. This asymmetry leaves the West with a perceived lack of effective retaliatory options.

The Need for Credible Counter Threats and Escalation as a Deterrent

Given these challenges, the video argues that the West has no alternative but to develop and employ credible counter threats. The rationale is that without the ability to credibly threaten adversaries, Russia and others will continue to use attacks to intimidate their populations and undermine Western resolve.

A key takeaway from Cold War lessons, being re-emphasized by senior officials, is that increased forceful threats against adversaries might be the most effective and safest way to achieve de-escalation. The argument is that escalation is not always a sign of failure but can, in fact, be a tool for deterrence.

Conclusion

The video concludes that China and Russia do not fear the West due to the current struggles of liberal democracies in maintaining unity and employing effective deterrence strategies. The ambiguity of modern threats, coupled with internal divisions within the West and the asymmetric nature of potential responses, creates a dangerous environment. The proposed solution lies in updating and re-emphasizing Cold War doctrines of deterrence, particularly the strategic use of credible counter threats and the understanding that forceful rhetoric can be a tool for de-escalation.