Why China and Russia are watching Trump's threats to Cuba closely | DW New

Key Concepts

• Authoritarian Alliance: The close partnership between Cuba and Venezuela focused on regime survival.
• Regime Change vs. Regime Survival: The differing US goals in Venezuela (removing Maduro but not necessarily changing the system) versus Cuba (pushing for democratization).
• Economic Coercion: The use of sanctions and control over resources (like oil) to exert political pressure.
• Monroe Doctrine (Trump’s Interpretation): A more assertive US foreign policy in the Western Hemisphere, emphasizing US dominance.
• Special Period (Cuba): The severe economic crisis Cuba faced after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
• Subsidized Oil: Venezuela’s provision of oil to Cuba at below-market prices.

Cuba, Venezuela, and US Policy: A Detailed Analysis

US Intervention in Venezuela & Implications for Cuba

US President Donald Trump has issued warnings to Cuba, linking its future to the situation in Venezuela following the attempted ouster of President Nicolás Maduro. Trump claims the US is “running Venezuela and controlling its oil” and intends to cut off oil and financial support to Cuba, stating, “I strongly suggest they make a deal before it is too late.” This stance signals a potential escalation of US pressure on both nations. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded by emphasizing the need for relations based on international law, rejecting “hostility, threats, and economic coercion.”

The Cuba-Venezuela Relationship: A Symbiotic Alliance

The core of the current tension lies in the long-standing relationship between Cuba and Venezuela. Dr. Rebecca Bill Chavez, CEO of the Interamerican Dialogue, describes this as a “classic authoritarian alliance” centered on “regime survival.” Venezuela, under Hugo Chávez and subsequently Maduro, provided Cuba with approximately 35,000 barrels of oil daily in exchange for Cuban expertise in areas like intelligence, security, and medical professionals. This oil supply has been crucial for Cuba, particularly in mitigating energy shortages and supporting its healthcare system. The relationship extends to military advisors and security forces, evidenced by the reported deaths of 32 Cuban operatives during operations related to the attempt to remove Maduro.

Economic Vulnerability & Potential Consequences for Cuba

Cuba is already grappling with significant economic challenges, including frequent blackouts due to aging infrastructure and fuel shortages, as well as shortages of food and medicine leading to concerns about malnutrition. The potential cessation of Venezuelan oil supplies poses an existential threat to the Cuban economy. Economists warn that a complete halt in oil deliveries could “grind the Cuban economy to a halt.” A Cuban citizen expressed concern about the impact on her daughters’ health, given their reliance on medical assistance from Venezuela. The situation echoes the “Special Period” of the 1990s, when Cuba faced a severe economic crisis following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

US Strategy & Potential Deals

Trump’s call for Cuba to “make a deal” is believed to be driven, in part, by the influence of figures like Senator Marco Rubio, who advocate for regime change and democratization in Cuba. While the removal of Maduro in Venezuela did not result in a complete systemic change, the US appears to be aiming for a more substantial transition in Cuba. Potential pressure points identified by Dr. Bill Chavez include pressuring Mexico to halt oil shipments to Cuba, as Mexico is also a significant supplier. However, the possibility of military intervention remains a concern, given the unprecedented US military presence in the Western Hemisphere.

Regional Reactions & Alternative Support for Cuba

Despite the US’s assertive stance, there is not a unified response from Latin American governments. Countries like El Salvador, Ecuador, Argentina, and Paraguay support the US approach, while Brazil and Mexico have expressed opposition, with Mexico explicitly denouncing the attempt to remove Maduro. Mexico, while not increasing oil shipments to Cuba, positions itself as an important supplier.

Crucially, the video highlights the potential for support from China and Russia. A Chinese envoy has reportedly been in Havana since the previous day, signaling Beijing’s interest in bolstering ties with Cuba. Dr. Bill Chavez suggests China would be the first country to offer substantial support.

The "Monroe Doctrine" & US Assertiveness

Trump’s approach is characterized as a revival of the “Monroe Doctrine,” a policy historically used to assert US dominance in the Western Hemisphere. Dr. Bill Chavez notes the region’s current division weakens its ability to counter this assertiveness. She also criticizes the US for not fully utilizing its “development arm” (like USAID) or diplomatic tools, focusing instead on potentially destabilizing interventions. The lack of a comprehensive approach raises concerns about the long-term consequences of US policy in the region.

Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump: “Venezuela now has the United States to protect them. There will be no more oil or money going to Cuba. Zero.”
• Miguel Díaz-Canel: “They must be based on international law rather than hostility, threats, and economic coercion.”
• Dr. Rebecca Bill Chavez: “The relationship between Cuba and Venezuela is…a classic authoritarian alliance where it is a very close partnership and the core component…is to maintain regime survival.”

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Regime Survival: The primary goal of authoritarian governments to maintain power.
• Economic Coercion: Using economic pressure (sanctions, trade restrictions) to influence a country’s political behavior.
• Subsidized Oil: Oil sold at a price below market value, often as a form of political or economic assistance.
• Special Period: A period of severe economic hardship in Cuba following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Conclusion

The situation unfolding in Venezuela has significant implications for Cuba, potentially exacerbating its existing economic vulnerabilities. The US, under Trump, is leveraging its control over Venezuelan oil to pressure Cuba, aiming for a more substantial political transition than was achieved in Venezuela. However, the lack of regional unity and the potential for support from countries like China and Russia complicate the US strategy. The long-term consequences of this assertive US policy remain uncertain, and the well-being of the Cuban people hangs in the balance.