Why billions of dollars are flowing into life-extension startups | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Lifespan vs. Healthspan
• Biological Aging
• Gerotherapeutics
• Longevity Inequality
• Blue Zones
• Anti-aging Quackery
• Modulation of Aging

1. The Unlikelihood of Living to 150

• Professor S.J. Oshansky states that living to 150 is "highly unlikely." The current record is 122 years (Jeanne Calment, died in 1997), and 150 is "28 light years away" in terms of biological possibility.
• He argues that "dramatic changes" would need to occur in human biology for such longevity, making it improbable in this century.

2. The Importance of Healthspan over Lifespan

• While average lifespan has increased by 30 years in the last century, this is primarily due to reduced early-age mortality (infant, child, maternal).
• The focus should shift from merely extending lifespan to extending "healthspan" – the number of healthy years.
• Extending lifespan without slowing biological aging could lead to a "larger unhealthy, more frail older population."
• The goal should be "healthy life rather than just length of life."

3. Conventional Medicine and Life Extension

• Advances like weight loss medications (Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly) can significantly impact individual lifespans, especially for those with morbid obesity (BMI > 35 or 40).
• However, at the population level, curing cancer or cardiovascular disease only increases life expectancy by 3-4.5 years.
• Oshansky uses the "whack-a-mole" analogy: addressing one disease leads to the emergence of others at older ages.

4. Cellular Rejuvenation and AI-Driven Biotech

• Startups like Altos Labs (funded by Jeff Bezos) and Retro Biosciences (Sam Altman) are investing in cellular rejuvenation and AI to reverse aging.
• Oshansky welcomes the investment in aging science and the recognition that aging is "inherently modifiable."
• He is skeptical of early claims about specific lifespan extensions (e.g., living to 150) because they require decades of trials to verify.
• He remains optimistic that modulating the biological process of aging is possible and will profoundly influence humanity.

5. Moonshot Projects vs. Anti-Aging Quackery

• Oshansky distinguishes between risky but potentially transformative "moonshot" projects and "wacky science fiction."
• He dismisses companies like Alcor Life Extension Foundation (cryogenics) and Nectome (brain preservation for mind uploading) as speculative and lacking scientific proof.
• He recounts asking the founder of cryogenics if he had ever revived anyone, to which the answer was no.
• He emphasizes relying on "good science" over speculation, noting that "anti-aging quackery" has existed for millennia.
• He advises against investing in unproven concepts like brain uploading.

6. Societal and Economic Impacts of Extended Lifespans

• If aging is successfully modulated, it will change the nature of aging and longevity, impacting society and the economy.
• Without modulating aging, extending lifespan could lead to a larger frail older population.
• Slowing aging could lead to healthier older people, reduced healthcare costs, and delayed retirement.
• People may choose to work longer or shift to different types of employment if they are biologically younger.
• Radical life extension (e.g., everyone living to 150) would create challenges for age-entitlement programs.

7. Longevity Inequality and Wealth Disparities

• Oshansky argues that wealth inequality translates into longevity inequality.
• Advances in longevity medicine risk widening this gap, with wealthier individuals buying more healthy years.
• He points out that access to essential resources (clean water, air, food, healthcare) is already inequitably distributed.
• A gerotherapeutic would become the "most sought-after medical intervention ever" and would likely be inequitably distributed initially.
• He uses the example of people living across the street from each other with a 20 year difference in life expectancy.
• He argues that inequitable distribution is not a reason to halt research.

8. Organ Transplants and the Limits of Physical Replacement

• Putin and Xi's discussion of organ transplants for longevity is viewed skeptically.
• While organ replacement is successful to a degree, the aging cardiovascular system and, most importantly, the brain cannot be easily replaced.
• A mismatch between a longer-lasting body and a failing mind would be a "disaster."
• Oshansky dismisses claims of living to 150 as similar to historical promises made to kings seeking immortality.
• He references his book, "Why Do Anti-Aging Doctors Die?", noting that they die at similar ages and from similar causes as the general population.

9. Lessons from Blue Zones and Japan's Centenarians

• Japan's high number of centenarians and "blue zones" (regions with exceptional longevity) offer valuable insights.
• Blue zones are often in populations that are not wealthy and do not have access to the same types of healthcare as everyone else.
• While adopting their lifestyles may not guarantee the same longevity, it can extend healthy life.
• He cautions against buying products claiming to replicate blue zone longevity.
• Blue zones are disappearing, making their study crucial for understanding longevity factors.
• Healthier lifestyles and diets in these regions contribute to their longevity.

10. Government Preparedness and Investment Priorities

• Governments should prepare for life extension by finding ways to utilize the "wonderful natural resource" of healthy older individuals.
• Older people should be encouraged to remain in the labor force and contribute to society.
• Planning should focus on facilitating healthy aging, which benefits individuals, societies, and entitlement programs.
• Investment should be directed towards:
  • Reducing longevity disparities globally.
  • Aging science to slow biological aging (the "next major public health frontier").
• Slowing aging has the equivalent impact of curing cancer or heart disease, with the added benefit of healthy years.

11. Notable Quotes:

• "That's like 28 light years away." (Regarding the difference between 122 and 150 years of age)
• "We have to be really careful what we wish for." (Regarding life extension without health extension)
• "Health care costs go down. people will probably decide to remain in the labor force longer." (Regarding the economic impact of slowing aging)
• "I don't want to be a brain in a cloud anyway, to be honest." (Regarding brain uploading)

12. Technical Terms and Concepts:

• Lifespan: The length of time a person lives.
• Healthspan: The period of life spent in good health.
• Biological Aging: The gradual deterioration of bodily functions over time.
• Gerotherapeutics: Interventions aimed at slowing or reversing the aging process.
• Longevity Inequality: Disparities in lifespan based on factors like wealth, access to healthcare, and lifestyle.
• Blue Zones: Geographic regions with exceptionally high concentrations of centenarians.
• Anti-aging Quackery: False or misleading claims about products or treatments that can extend lifespan.
• Modulation of Aging: The process of influencing or altering the rate of biological aging.

13. Synthesis/Conclusion:

While radical life extension to ages like 150 remains highly improbable in the near future, focusing on extending healthspan and slowing biological aging is a worthwhile and potentially transformative goal. This requires investment in both reducing health disparities and advancing aging science. Governments should prepare for the societal and economic impacts of longer, healthier lives by promoting the inclusion and continued contribution of older individuals. Caution is advised against unproven anti-aging claims and speculative technologies. The key is to prioritize healthy aging and equitable access to advancements in medicine and longevity.