Why America and Iran are both claiming victory | The Economist

Key Concepts

• Asymmetric Warfare: A conflict between belligerents whose relative military power, strategy, or tactics differ significantly.
• Parallel Wars: The concept that the US/Israel and Iran are fighting two distinct, simultaneous conflicts (US/Israel vs. Iran; Iran vs. Gulf neighbors/global economy).
• Strategic Attrition: A military strategy aimed at wearing down the enemy to the point of collapse through continuous losses in personnel and materiel.
• Economic Warfare: The use of economic means (sanctions, infrastructure destruction) to weaken an adversary's state capacity.
• Doomsday Scenario: The potential destruction of critical civilian infrastructure (power grids, water desalination plants) leading to humanitarian catastrophe.

1. The Current State of the Conflict

The conflict is characterized by a stalemate where both the US and Iran claim victory based on their specific, albeit different, objectives.

• US/Israel Objectives: Aiming to compel Iran to surrender and negotiate on favorable terms by degrading its military and economic infrastructure.
• Iranian Objectives: Focusing on resilience, inflicting costs on the global economy, and preventing future wars without making major concessions.
• Strategic Reality: Despite the "winning" narratives, neither side has achieved its ultimate strategic goals. The conflict is currently defined by "parallel wars," where each side achieves tactical successes in one theater while suffering losses in another.

2. Operational and Economic Impact

The war has caused significant, long-term damage to both sides:

• US Military Losses: Beyond the destruction of aircraft during a rescue operation, the US has lost critical assets, including aerial refueling tankers and an E-3 AWACS radar plane (a significant loss given the limited inventory of fewer than 20). US bases in the region (e.g., Al Udeid in Qatar, Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia) have sustained extensive, under-reported damage.
• Iranian Economic Collapse: Attacks have targeted critical infrastructure, including major steel mills, natural gas fields, and petrochemical plants.
  • Steel Industry: The loss of steel production cuts off approximately $7 billion in annual non-oil export revenue and disrupts downstream industries like automotive and construction.
  • Macroeconomic Indicators: Iran faces inflation exceeding 52% (as of March), rising food prices, and mass layoffs, further destabilizing the state.
• Gulf States: Beyond oil/gas infrastructure damage, these nations face reputational harm, loss of tourism, and the need to earmark billions for domestic economic support.

3. The "Rescue Operation" Case Study

The recent incident involving a downed American F-15 and the subsequent rescue of two airmen serves as a rare moment of direct engagement.

• US Perspective: Framed as a successful mission to recover personnel.
• Iranian Perspective: Framed as a failure for the US due to the loss of several American planes during the operation.
• Significance: Both sides utilized the event for domestic propaganda, highlighting the "spin" used to maintain the narrative of winning despite operational costs.

4. Escalation and Future Outlook

The analyst suggests that escalation is the most probable path forward.

• Failed Diplomacy: A proposed temporary truce (2–3 weeks) to negotiate a permanent ceasefire has been rejected by Iran, which seeks a total end to the conflict rather than a pause.
• The "Doomsday" Threat: Donald Trump has threatened to target Iran’s power grid.
  • Legal/Ethical Implications: The analyst notes that while targeting a single plant may be militarily justifiable, destroying an entire national grid would likely constitute a war crime under international law.
  • Retaliation: Iran has threatened to target Gulf water desalination plants. If successful, this would render entire cities in the region uninhabitable, leading to a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented scale.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The conflict has evolved into a war of attrition that is unsustainable for all parties involved. While the US and Iran continue to engage in parallel wars, the destruction of critical civilian infrastructure—specifically power and water systems—represents a dangerous threshold. The current trajectory points toward a major escalation that would not only deepen the economic and military damage already sustained but also risk catastrophic humanitarian consequences for the entire region.