Why a population crisis threatens China’s economic growth | DW News

Key Concepts

• Demographic Decline: The decrease in a population over time, a significant concern for China.
• One-Child Policy: China's former population control measure, now contributing to the current demographic challenges.
• "Getting Rich Before Getting Old": A demographic challenge where a country's economy develops rapidly before its population ages significantly, posing a risk for China.
• Traditionalist Values: A societal shift towards more traditional gender roles, impacting women's participation in the workforce and their reproductive choices.
• Coercive Policies: Government measures that infringe on individual freedoms, potentially used to enforce population growth targets.
• Quality Population: The concept of focusing on educated and skilled individuals for population growth, rather than just sheer numbers.
• Incentives: Government-provided benefits, such as cash handouts and free childcare, aimed at encouraging childbirth.
• Structural Issues: Deep-rooted problems in the economy and society that hinder desired outcomes, such as discrimination against working mothers.
• Trauma of One-Child Policy: The lasting negative psychological impact on individuals, particularly women, who experienced forced abortions or sterilizations.
• Youth Unemployment: High rates of joblessness among young people, creating skepticism about future prospects for children.
• Mechanization and Automation: The increasing use of technology in manufacturing, potentially offsetting workforce shortages due to population decline.
• Robotic Wombs: A speculative technological concept for artificial gestation, discussed as a potential, albeit unlikely, solution to population decline.

China's Demographic Crisis: Reversing Population Decline and its Societal Implications

The Challenge of Population Decline

China is facing a significant demographic challenge with a declining birth rate and an aging population. This trend, which has been evident for nearly a decade, has proven difficult for Beijing to reverse. While other East Asian nations like Taiwan and Japan are also projected to experience population decline (an 11% drop by 2050), China's situation is predicted to be a more severe crisis. This is largely attributed to the long-standing one-child policy, which, despite being abandoned, has had lasting effects. The current situation is characterized by a struggle to reverse this trend, with the government implementing various incentives.

Economic Uncertainty and the "Getting Rich Before Getting Old" Dilemma

A key concern is China's economic trajectory. Unlike Japan, which managed to "get rich before getting old," China's GDP per capita remains significantly lower than other developed nations with similar birth rates. The slowing growth of the Chinese economy adds to the uncertainty of its future, raising questions about its ability to support an aging population and maintain its global superpower status.

Worsening Women's Rights and Traditionalist Values

Under President Xi Jinping, there are observable signs of a decline in women's rights. While significant progress was made since 1995, there has been a notable shift towards more traditionalist values. This shift emphasizes women's roles in the household as caregivers for children, the elderly, and family members. This is seen as a strategy to encourage higher birth rates by promoting marriage at younger ages and having more children. However, this comes at a significant cost to women's careers, especially considering the high price of childcare.

Risk of Coercive Policies

A major worry is the potential for coercive government policies aimed at boosting the population. There are already reports of invasive initiatives in some regions, where party officials directly contact women to inquire about their childbearing plans and exert pressure. Furthermore, there have been concerning legal developments regarding abortion rights, with women facing increased requirements for reasons and permissions to undergo the procedure. These developments require close monitoring.

Global Impact of China's Demographic Challenges

The global implications of China's demographic challenges are substantial. A downturn in women's rights in China would be a significant setback for women's rights globally. If Beijing fails to reverse the current population decline, it could severely impact China's economic prospects and its position as a global superpower, potentially disrupting the shifting power dynamics observed in international relations.

Targeted Population Growth and Quality Population Concerns

While the government desires more children, there is a focus on "good quality population." This means maintaining achievements in education and urbanization. A rapid increase in births in rural areas, where services like maternity and child healthcare are still lacking, would be difficult to manage. This presents a paradox: the government wants to promise better services, but these services are strained due to a lack of children.

Incentives and Their Effectiveness

China is rolling out various incentives to encourage childbirth, including cash handouts. However, these national incentives are often small, particularly for urban populations, and do not significantly offset the high costs of raising children. While national free public childcare has been introduced, the overall cost of education throughout a person's lifetime remains substantial compared to other developed countries.

Data Point: The nationwide child subsidy from China is reportedly worth about €430, which is significantly less than incentives offered in countries like South Korea.

Skepticism and Structural Barriers

Chinese citizens, particularly on social media, have expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of these incentives, with some mocking them as insufficient to cover basic needs like a can of milk formula. The cash incentives fail to address core structural issues, such as female employment and workplace discrimination against working mothers. Companies, already struggling with economic slowdown, are hesitant to hire women who are pregnant or have young children, due to the costs associated with maternity leave.

Government Response to Discrimination

While there is rhetoric about shared responsibility in raising children, it has had little impact on social dynamics. Companies require financial support from the government to provide adequate maternity and paternity leave, which is often lacking. This lack of support hinders families' ability to have more children.

Lingering Trauma from the One-Child Policy

The reversal from population control to population growth has created frustration and skepticism among Chinese citizens, especially women who may have experienced forced abortions or sterilizations under the one-child policy. This trauma makes the 180-degree reversal difficult to accept, and many do not foresee immediate changes.

Control Over Birth Limits

Despite the push for population growth, legal limits on the number of children couples can have remain. This is attributed to the Chinese Communist Party's reluctance to relinquish control, driven by a persistent fear of a population boom and excessive births, even in the current context of decline.

Young Women's Reluctance to Have Children

A study of 55,000 college students revealed that a third of young women did not want children, a figure twice as high as for young men. This is attributed to women's awareness that they will bear the primary burden of childcare and eldercare, despite being raised with messages of equality and ambition. The sudden shift in narrative, urging them to marry young and return to domestic duties, is not resonating.

Youth Unemployment and Future Prospects

High youth unemployment rates in Chinese cities create a contradiction with the government's call for more children to boost the future economy. Young people question the prospects for their children if they themselves cannot find jobs or secure education.

Mechanization and Automation as Potential Solutions

The impact of mechanization and automation in Chinese manufacturing on the workforce is uncertain. While technology may offer solutions, it is too early to determine its full effect. The discussion around speculative technologies like "robotic wombs" is seen as unlikely to solve the population decline.