Why 2026 could be a milestone for Germany's AfD | Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• AfD (Alternative for Germany): A right-wing populist and nationalist political party in Germany, experiencing increasing electoral success.
• Euroskepticism: Opposition to European integration, including the European Union and the Euro currency.
• Migration Policy: A central issue for the AfD, focusing on restricting immigration and its perceived impact on German society.
• National Conservatism: A political ideology emphasizing national identity, traditional values, and skepticism towards international cooperation.
• "Firewall": The established political barrier preventing other German parties from forming coalitions with the AfD.
• Stagflation: A combination of economic stagnation and high inflation, currently impacting Germany.
• Transatlantic Alliance (AFD & MAGA): Emerging connections and potential cooperation between the AfD and the MAGA movement in the United States.
• Domestic Intelligence (Verfassungsschutz): German agencies responsible for monitoring threats to the constitutional order, currently classifying the AfD as a right-wing extremist group.

The Rise of the AfD and the 2026 Election Year in Germany

The year 2025 marked a significant breakthrough for the Alternative for Germany (AfD), achieving second place in national elections and currently leading in some opinion polls. This success positions the party to potentially win control of state governments in 2026, a stepping stone towards their ultimate goal of national power. This briefing analyzes the key state elections of 2026, their implications for Germany’s national government, and the potential influence of international actors, particularly the United States.

I. Current Standing and Historical Context of the AfD

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party, the AfD has undergone a significant transformation over the past decade. A pivotal moment was Angela Merkel’s open-door migration policy during the 2015 migration crisis, which propelled the AfD to its first electoral breakthroughs. Since then, the party has capitalized on subsequent crises – the pandemic, the energy crisis following the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and consistently focused on migration as a central issue. Recent polling data shows the AfD surpassing other parties in national opinion polls for the first time in its history.

As of February 2025, the AfD secured second place in national elections, demonstrating a growing base of support. The party’s platform broadly aligns with nationalist, anti-immigration, and skeptical views on international cooperation, often described as a form of “Trumpism” within a European context.

II. Factors Driving AfD Support

Several factors contribute to the AfD’s growing popularity. Initially founded on Euroscepticism and advocating for a nationalist economic policy, the party broadened its appeal by tapping into anxieties surrounding immigration, particularly following the 2015 migration crisis. The party effectively frames the past decade as a period of negative consequences stemming from Merkel’s policies, using this narrative to garner support.

Economic stagnation, coupled with high inflation (stagflation), is a significant driver of discontent. Germany has experienced three years of no economic growth, creating a sense of frustration and uncertainty among the population. The AfD proposes solutions like re-establishing Russian gas imports and reducing immigration, appealing to voters concerned about economic hardship.

Demographic shifts, particularly in eastern Germany, also play a role. Eastern states have experienced population decline and a sense of being “left behind” after reunification, fostering resentment and susceptibility to the AfD’s message. Paradoxically, even in states with lower migrant populations, the AfD has successfully exploited fears surrounding immigration.

III. The 2026 State Elections: Key Battlegrounds

Five state elections are scheduled for 2026, with Saxony and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Mech Pom) in eastern Germany receiving the most attention. These states have historically been strongholds for the AfD, due to a combination of economic hardship, post-reunification disillusionment, and a perceived lack of integration of migrants.

Saxony currently shows the AfD leading in polls with around 40% support. The state elections are crucial because they determine the composition of the Landtag (state parliament) and, subsequently, the formation of state governments. Often, no single party achieves a majority, necessitating coalition negotiations.

IV. Potential Outcomes and Implications

The potential outcomes of the state elections are varied:

• AfD Wins Absolute Majority: This would allow the AfD to govern independently, establishing the first AfD-led state government and providing a platform to implement its policies.
• AfD Becomes Strongest Party, No Majority: This scenario would force other parties to negotiate coalition agreements. The key question is whether the established parties will maintain the “firewall” – refusing to cooperate with the AfD – or whether the CDU (Christian Democratic Union) will consider a coalition, potentially fracturing the existing political order.
• Coalition Excluding AfD: This outcome would require a complex coalition of parties, potentially leading to an unstable government.

If the AfD gains power in a state, it would likely prioritize defunding civic organizations deemed “left-wing,” exerting influence over the education system, and potentially influencing law enforcement and the state’s branch of the Verfassungsschutz (domestic intelligence agency).

At the national level, a strong showing by the AfD could further destabilize the current coalition government and increase pressure on the CDU to reconsider its stance on cooperation.

V. Wild Cards and International Influences

Several external factors could influence the political landscape:

• Economic Growth: Positive economic developments could alleviate public discontent and potentially weaken AfD support.
• US-AfD Connections: Growing ties between the AfD and the MAGA movement in the United States, including support from figures like JD Vance and Elon Musk, could provide the AfD with political and financial backing. There is a potential for US actors to publicly support the AfD should a coalition negotiation arise in Saxony.
• Ukraine War: The AfD’s stance on the Ukraine war, and potential shifts in that position influenced by international actors, could impact its appeal to different voter segments.
• Classification as Extremist Group: The AfD’s classification as a far-right extremist party by German intelligence agencies continues to fuel debate about a potential ban, a complex and controversial process.

VI. Conclusion

The 2026 state elections represent a critical juncture for German politics. The AfD’s continued rise, fueled by economic anxieties, migration concerns, and a perceived failure of mainstream parties, poses a significant challenge to the established political order. The outcome of these elections will not only determine the political landscape of individual states but also have far-reaching implications for the national government and Germany’s position within Europe and the international community. The emerging transatlantic alliance between the AfD and the MAGA movement adds another layer of complexity, potentially reshaping the dynamics of German politics in the years to come.