Who will win the next election in Hungary? - World Questions podcast, BBC World Service

World Questions Hungary: A Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• Fidesz: The governing right-wing nationalist party in Hungary, led by Viktor Orbán.
• Tisza: A new political party challenging Fidesz in the upcoming 2026 elections.
• Illiberal Democracy: A political system where elections occur, but civil liberties and democratic institutions are curtailed.
• EU Funds & Corruption: Concerns surrounding the allocation and potential misuse of European Union funding in Hungary.
• Ukraine War & Neutrality: Hungary’s stance on the war in Ukraine, prioritizing non-involvement and seeking a peaceful resolution.
• LGBTQ+ Rights: The erosion of rights and increasing hostility towards LGBTQ+ individuals in Hungary.
• State Capture: The influence of the ruling party over state institutions and resources.

1. Political Landscape & 2026 Elections

The program centers on the upcoming Hungarian elections in 2026, currently presenting a close race between the incumbent Fidesz party, led by Viktor Orbán, and the new challenger, Tisza. Andras Laszlo (Fidesz) asserts Fidesz remains the favorite, citing 15 years of governance and international recognition as strengths. He believes Hungary is “on the map” politically due to the attention it receives. However, Timea Szabo (Dialogue, Greens) contends that Tisza is gaining momentum, fueled by public dissatisfaction with corruption, economic performance (record-high deficit, inflation), and a desire for change. Polling data, while fluctuating, generally shows a competitive race. Notably, Tisza declined an invitation to participate in the debate. Boris Kalnoky (MCC Media School) notes a shift in public sentiment, with initial support for Tisza waning slightly, but a growing expectation that Orbán will ultimately win, mirroring trends observed in the US presidential election. Zsuzsanna Szelenyi (CEU Democracy Institute) emphasizes the unequal playing field, highlighting 30 changes to election rules in the last 15 years designed to favor Fidesz, and the distortion of the electoral system requiring only 45% for Fidesz to win versus 55% for others.

2. Foreign Policy & The Ukraine War

A central theme is Hungary’s position on the war in Ukraine. Fidesz has pledged to avoid sending weapons to Ukraine and preventing weapon shipments through Hungarian territory, a promise upheld according to Laszlo. He expresses optimism that the change in US administration will facilitate a peace deal favorable to Hungary and Europe, criticizing other European leaders for “blocking efforts for peace” with unrealistic conditions. Szabo strongly disagrees, stating Hungary has never been at war and accusing Orbán of falsely threatening citizens with war. She points out that Russia initiated the conflict, and Hungary’s neutrality doesn’t equate to non-involvement. Kalnoky suggests that a Tisza victory could lead to Hungary aligning more closely with EU policies regarding Ukraine, including financial and military support, potentially impacting Hungarian citizens financially. Szelenyi dismisses the notion of Hungary being threatened by war, but warns of other potential problems arising from the conflict.

3. Corruption & Rule of Law

The issue of corruption is a recurring point of contention. Transparency International and the Sustainable Governance Indicators Network are cited as sources documenting systemic and endemic corruption in Hungary, with $1 billion in EU funds frozen due to concerns. Laszlo defends the government, claiming corruption accusations are politically motivated and that Hungary has the most scrutinized public tender system in the EU. He points to increased foreign direct investment, including a Mercedes-Benz expansion, as evidence of confidence in the Hungarian economy. Szelenyi argues that the government has built a new business elite closely linked to Fidesz, enriching a small circle of individuals through EU funds and state resources. Szabo highlights the lack of checks and balances, with Fidesz controlling independent institutions like the Constitutional Court and State Audit Office, and owning over 1,000 media organizations, effectively controlling the narrative. She notes Hungary ranks lowest in the EU on corruption indices, even behind countries like Burkina Faso. Tibor, a viewer, corroborates the widespread perception of corruption.

4. LGBTQ+ Rights & Social Conservatism

Nikoletta’s question focuses on the deteriorating situation for LGBTQ+ individuals in Hungary, including restrictions on legal gender recognition, access to healthcare, and the banning of “promoting” a gay lifestyle to minors. Kalnoky acknowledges the existence of gay bars and pride marches but suggests these issues are not widely shared concerns. He defends laws restricting gender change operations, citing concerns about irreversible procedures for young people. Szelenyi characterizes the government’s stance as part of a broader anti-gender mobilization typical of illiberal states, aiming to enforce societal norms and repress minority rights. Szabo condemns the government’s actions as “vicious, inhuman, and evil,” highlighting the practical difficulties faced by LGBTQ+ individuals, such as unequal parental rights and discrimination in accessing official documents. A personal anecdote from Nikoletta, a mother of gay and transgender children, underscores the real-life impact of these policies.

5. Key Arguments & Perspectives

• Fidesz (Laszlo): Emphasizes stability, experience, and national interests. Downplays corruption concerns as politically motivated and defends socially conservative policies as protecting traditional values and children.
• Opposition (Szabo): Highlights corruption, economic mismanagement, and the erosion of democratic institutions. Advocates for a more inclusive and progressive society.
• Analyst (Kalnoky): Offers a more nuanced perspective, suggesting a potential shift in public sentiment but acknowledging Fidesz’s resilience. Focuses on the economic and geopolitical factors influencing the election.
• Academic (Szelenyi): Frames Hungary as an “illiberal democracy” characterized by state capture, unequal competition, and the suppression of minority rights.

Notable Quotes:

• “We have a proven track record of the last 15 years, and I believe in these uncertain times… the best choice for Hungarians is obviously an experienced and internationally respected government.” – Andras Laszlo
• “Hungary has never been in war. Russia attacked Ukraine… No other European countries have war.” – Timea Szabo
• “Systemic corruption was invented as a term because they couldn't point to specific corruption cases.” – Andras Laszlo
• “We are just entering a political campaign, and also because Hungary is not a liberal democracy where political parties are competing with equal chances.” – Zsuzsanna Szelenyi
• “It’s ironic that Andras talked about propaganda funded from abroad instead of talking about people.” – Nikoletta

Technical Terms:

• Illiberal Democracy: A system where elections are held, but civil liberties and democratic institutions are weakened.
• State Capture: The manipulation of state institutions by private interests to benefit themselves.
• Cohesion Funds: EU funding aimed at reducing economic disparities between member states.
• Hálapénz: (Hungarian) Gratitude money, historically given to doctors as unofficial payment.

Conclusion:

The discussion paints a complex picture of Hungary at a critical juncture. While Fidesz maintains a strong grip on power, fueled by a loyal base and control over state resources, growing public dissatisfaction with corruption and economic issues presents a significant challenge. The upcoming elections will be a pivotal moment, not only for Hungary’s domestic politics but also for its relationship with the EU and its stance on the war in Ukraine. The erosion of democratic norms and the increasing hostility towards minorities raise serious concerns about the future of Hungary’s liberal values and its commitment to the rule of law. The program highlights the deep divisions within Hungarian society and the challenges facing those seeking a more democratic and inclusive future.