Who's backing Iran in the war? | FT #shorts

Key Concepts

• Axis of Resistance: A network of regional proxies and militant groups aligned with and supported by Iran.
• Asymmetrical Conflict: A strategy used by weaker powers to inflict high costs on a stronger adversary (the US) through unconventional warfare.
• Choke Points: Strategic maritime passages (Red Sea, Strait of Hormuz) critical for global shipping and energy transit.
• Proxy Warfare: The use of third-party groups to engage in conflict on behalf of a state actor to maintain plausible deniability and avoid direct confrontation.

The Axis of Resistance: Iran’s Regional Proxies

Iran maintains influence through a "patchwork" of regional proxies, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance. These groups serve as the primary instruments for Iran’s regional power projection:

• Iraq: Iranian-backed Shia militias are identified as the primary actors responsible for attacks on the US embassy compound in Baghdad and various other US military targets.
• Lebanon: The Shia militant group (Hezbollah) has engaged in cross-border fire with Israel, resulting in significant casualties (over 1,000 deaths) and a fierce retaliatory response.
• Yemen: The Houthis have escalated the conflict by launching missiles and drones toward Israel. Analysts highlight this as a "worrying escalation" due to the group's capacity to disrupt maritime traffic at the Red Sea choke point, which compounds existing instability in the Strait of Hormuz.

Shifting Regional Dynamics

The transcript notes that Iran’s regional influence was in decline prior to the current conflict, specifically following the departure of Bashar al-Assad from Syria in 2024. While Hamas remains active in parts of Gaza, they are currently maintaining a low profile. Despite these setbacks, Iran continues to utilize its proxies to maintain pressure on its adversaries.

International Alliances and Support

Iran’s ability to sustain its wartime posture is bolstered by key international partnerships:

• Russia: Intelligence sharing is a core component of this partnership, with Russia reportedly providing Iran with the locations of US military assets. Furthermore, Western intelligence confirms that Russia has supplied Iran with "Shahed" drones and provided essential supplies, including food and medicine.
• China: While China has maintained a stance of non-intervention in the military conflict, it remains a critical economic lifeline. By serving as a major buyer of Iranian oil, China provides the regime with a vital revenue stream necessary to sustain its wartime economy.

Strategic Objectives and Challenges

The Iranian regime is currently facing its most significant internal and external threats in decades. Analysts argue that Iran’s strategic goal is to engage in an asymmetrical conflict designed to raise the operational and political costs for the United States. Even though the "Axis of Resistance" has been weakened by recent regional shifts, these proxies remain highly capable of destabilizing the region and threatening US interests.

Conclusion

Iran’s current geopolitical strategy relies on a combination of proxy-led asymmetrical warfare and strategic economic and intelligence support from global powers like Russia and China. While the regime faces internal instability and a weakened regional network, its ability to leverage maritime choke points and maintain a persistent threat to US and Israeli assets remains a central feature of the ongoing conflict.