Who needs whom the most at the moment? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Syria-Russia Relations: The evolving dynamic between Syria under Ahmed al-Shar and Russia following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad.
• Geopolitical Influence: Russia’s strategic interests in maintaining a presence in the Middle East, particularly through military bases in Syria.
• Reconstruction & Stability: Syria’s need for assistance in rebuilding its infrastructure and achieving political stability.
• Power Projection: Russia’s use of its Syrian bases to extend its military and political influence in the region and beyond.
• Strategic Military Bases: The importance of the Homayim air base and Tartus naval base to Russia’s military strategy.

Russia-Syria Talks & Shifting Alliances

The meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar in Moscow signifies a notable shift in the geopolitical landscape of Syria and the wider Middle East. This is the second such meeting since al-Shar’s coalition ousted Bashar al-Assad, a longtime ally of Putin, over a year ago. Putin emphasized the “growing ties” between Moscow and Damascus, noting a 4% growth in economic cooperation, while acknowledging the ambition for even greater progress. He stated, “Much has been accomplished in terms of restoring relations between our nations. We’ve also managed to break the deadlock in economic cooperation.”

Al-Shar, in turn, highlighted Syria’s progress in overcoming internal obstacles, specifically “unifying the Syrian territory,” and emphasized Russia’s “historic role” in ensuring Syria’s, and the region’s, stability. He expressed hope for a transition “from a state of ruin and destruction to one of stability” with continued Russian support. Despite Assad’s refuge in Moscow, al-Shar has adopted a pragmatic approach, seeking Russian assistance in Syria’s reconstruction. Notably, Syria has also requested the extradition of Assad from Russia.

Russia’s Strategic Interests in Syria

The ousting of Assad initially threatened Russia’s influence in the region. Maintaining access to its two military outposts in Syria – the Homayim air base and the Tartus naval base – is paramount for the Kremlin. These bases represent Russia’s only official military presence outside the former Soviet Union. Anna Borchvkaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, explained that Russia “never fully left Syria to begin with” and is now “reconsolidating influence with its new leadership,” demonstrating a long-term commitment to maintaining a foothold in the country.

The Mediterranean bases are crucial for Russia’s “power projection into NATO’s southern flank and overall all of Europe,” particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, as well as across the Middle East and Africa. They facilitate logistics, transportation, and the projection of military power in multiple directions.

The Interdependence of Russia and Syria

Both Russia and Syria have significant needs that the other can fulfill. Borchvkaya asserts that while both countries need each other, “Al-Shar needs Russia a little bit more than the other way around.” Russia desires a military and economic presence in Syria, utilizing it as a “springboard to project power.” However, al-Shar relies on Russia for maintaining his control over a still-fragmented country. Russia’s support is vital for his ability to “retain control of the country.”

Recent Developments & Regional Significance

Russia recently withdrew its forces from the Kamishi airport in Kurdish-held northeast Syria. However, Borchvkaya downplayed the significance of this withdrawal, stating that the continued Russian presence in the south and along the coast, where the key bases are located, is far more important. The south is particularly crucial as it is the “cradle of Syrian uprisings” and an area where Damascus struggles to maintain control.

Key Arguments & Perspectives

The central argument presented is that Russia’s relationship with Syria is not fundamentally altered by the change in leadership. Russia prioritizes maintaining its strategic presence in the region, and is willing to work with the current Syrian government to achieve this goal. The West’s expectation that Assad’s fall would diminish Russia’s influence has not materialized. Borchvkaya’s perspective emphasizes Russia’s long-term strategic goals and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances. She highlights the pragmatic nature of the relationship, where both sides recognize their mutual needs.

Notable Quotes

• Vladimir Putin: “Much has been accomplished in terms of restoring relations between our nations. We’ve also managed to break the deadlock in economic cooperation.”
• Ahmed al-Shar: “Russia has a historic role not only in Syria's unity and stability but in that of the entire region.”
• Anna Borchvkaya: “Leaders come and go, but Russia stays.”
• Anna Borchvkaya: “Al-Shar needs Russia a little bit more than the other way around.”

Technical Terms & Concepts

• Power Projection: The ability of a nation to exert its influence beyond its borders through military, economic, or cultural means.
• Geopolitical Backer: A country that provides political, economic, or military support to another country.
• Kremlin: A metonym for the Russian government.
• NATO Southern Flank: The southern border of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, encompassing countries in the Mediterranean region.

Logical Connections

The discussion progresses logically from the initial meeting between Putin and al-Shar to an analysis of Russia’s strategic interests in Syria. The interview with Anna Borchvkaya provides expert insight into the dynamics of the relationship, explaining why Russia is willing to work with the new Syrian government. The discussion of the Kamishi airport withdrawal contextualizes recent events within the broader strategic framework.

Data & Statistics

• Economic Growth: A 4% growth in economic cooperation between Russia and Syria was reported.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The meeting between Putin and al-Shar underscores Russia’s continued commitment to maintaining its influence in Syria, despite the change in leadership. Russia’s strategic interests, particularly the preservation of its military bases, are driving its engagement with the new Syrian government. While both countries benefit from the relationship, Syria is currently more reliant on Russia for stability and reconstruction. The situation demonstrates Russia’s adaptability and its long-term strategic vision in the Middle East, challenging Western expectations and highlighting the complex geopolitical dynamics of the region.