Who might fill the power vacuum in a post-Maduro Venezuela? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Regime Change: The US’s stated and implied goal regarding the Maduro government in Venezuela.
• Naroterrorism: The charge leveled against Maduro by the US, alleging involvement in drug trafficking to fund terrorism.
• Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine: The Trump administration’s foreign policy asserting US dominance in the Western Hemisphere.
• State of External Disturbance: Emergency measure declared by Maduro allowing suspension of rights and expanded military role.
• Illicit Criminal Networks: Allegations of deep corruption and criminal involvement within the Maduro regime.
• Power Vacuum: The potential instability and competition for leadership following Maduro’s reported removal.
• National Sovereignty: The principle invoked by Venezuelan officials resisting foreign intervention.

US Military Operation in Venezuela: A Detailed Account

Initial Reports & Claims of Capture

The United States has confirmed a large-scale military operation within Venezuela, culminating in the reported capture of President Nicolás Maduro by US troops and law enforcement. President Donald Trump announced via his Truth Social platform that Maduro and his wife were flown out of the country following a “large-scale strike.” This announcement followed reports of multiple explosions in Caracas, the Venezuelan capital, documented in user-generated videos showing explosions lighting up the night sky and US aircraft flying at low altitudes. Witnesses reported hearing “at least eight or ten” explosions and smelling “chemicals.”

Verification & Venezuelan Response

While Trump’s claim remains unverified independently, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez acknowledged the unknown whereabouts of Maduro and demanded “immediate proof of life” from the Trump administration. The Venezuelan government accused Washington of attacking both civilian and military installations across multiple states. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino vowed resistance to the foreign troop presence, asserting Venezuela’s rejection of “death, pain, and destruction” brought by foreign forces. Prior to the reported capture, Maduro had declared a “state of external disturbance,” granting the government expanded powers, including the suspension of certain rights and increased military authority.

Escalation & Preceding Events

This escalation follows weeks of US military action targeting alleged Venezuelan drug smuggling boats in the Caribbean. Maduro accused the US of seeking regime change and access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, while the US countered with charges of “naroterrorism” against Maduro. The removal of Maduro, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation of US involvement in South America.

On-the-Ground Perspective from Caracas

Norris Sto, a journalist based in Caracas, provided firsthand accounts of the events. She was awakened at 2:00 AM by low-flying aircraft and subsequently by her dogs barking in response to explosions. Initially, she mistook the sounds for fireworks, but quickly realized it was a direct attack on Venezuela. The immediate aftermath was characterized by widespread shock and a surge in phone calls as people sought information.

Sto noted initial confusion regarding the nature of the attack, with some believing it to be a coup d'état due to existing discontent with the Maduro regime. However, Trump’s announcement clarified US involvement. She reported increasing activity in the city, including long lines at gas stations and people attempting to purchase food, with journalists advising citizens to stay home due to the uncertain situation and potential activation of militias or curfews.

Regarding the potential for a power vacuum, Sto explained that, constitutionally, the Vice President (Delcy Rodríguez) or the President of the National Assembly (Jorge Rodríguez, her brother) would be next in line. However, given the 2024 election results which saw Edmundo González as the winner, he would be the legitimate successor, though both González and Marina Machado (another opposition leader) are currently abroad. She emphasized the difficulty of their return without US assistance, given the potential for airspace closure by the remaining Maduro officials.

Sto also anticipated resistance from Maduro supporters, particularly those within the inner circle and involved in illicit activities, who would attempt to cling to power and avoid prosecution. She noted cautious reactions from opposition leaders, recognizing a unique opportunity to seize control but needing to assess the situation before making public statements.

Expert Analysis & Regional Implications

Christopher Sabatini (Chattam House) highlighted that a portion of the Venezuelan population would likely welcome Maduro’s removal, citing his loss in the 2024 election. However, he cautioned that the bombings, targeting locations from El Hatillo to La Carlota Air Force Base, could provoke a nationalistic response and fuel resistance from elements within the Venezuelan military. He emphasized the need for a transition that brings stability, security, and human rights to Venezuela, acknowledging the deeply corrupt administration left behind and the potential for competition among its members.

Sabatini pointed out Trump’s justifications for the intervention – anti-narcotics, foreign influence, and Maduro’s lack of legitimacy – questioning the validity of the narcotics allegations. He also noted the potential for a prolonged US involvement, particularly given Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s desire for a Democratic opposition to take power.

Scott Lucas (University College Dublin) characterized the operation as an attempt by the Trump administration to exert its power and topple the Maduro government, driven by personal motives, the desire to seize oil resources, and the broader “Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.” He questioned whether the Venezuelan people would simply follow US demands, noting their lack of previous uprising despite Trump’s attempts to incite one. Lucas also highlighted the contradiction of the Trump administration pardoning a Honduran president convicted of drug trafficking while simultaneously accusing Maduro of “naroterrorism.”

Potential Leadership & Future Scenarios

Experts identified several key figures who could potentially fill the power vacuum:

• Delcy Rodríguez: Current Vice President, constitutionally next in line.
• Jorge Rodríguez: President of the National Assembly, also constitutionally eligible.
• Diosdado Cabello: Interior Minister, with access to the military and security forces.
• Padrino López: Defense Minister, also with significant military influence.

However, these individuals are largely viewed as illegitimate by the democratic opposition and the US government. The future direction of Venezuela hinges on the next few days and weeks, and whether the situation leads to a stable transition or further instability.

Data & Statistics

• 30%: Approximate percentage of votes received by Maduro in the last election (potentially inflated due to coercion).
• 35: Number of alleged drug smuggling boats targeted by the US military since September 2nd.
• 3+ Million: Number of Venezuelans who have fled the country due to economic and political instability.
• 400 Tons: Amount of cocaine allegedly trafficked by the pardoned Honduran president.

Conclusion

The US military operation in Venezuela represents a significant and potentially destabilizing intervention in the region. While the reported capture of Nicolás Maduro remains unverified, the events have triggered a crisis with uncertain consequences. The situation is characterized by confusion, shock, and the potential for both resistance from Maduro supporters and a power struggle among various factions. The future of Venezuela hinges on the actions of the US, the remaining Maduro officials, and the Venezuelan people themselves, and the coming days will be critical in determining the country’s trajectory. The operation underscores the complex interplay of political, economic, and security interests driving US policy in Latin America.