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Venezuela After Maduro: A Transition Under US Oversight

Key Concepts:

• Maduro’s Capture: The removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power by US action.
• Deli Rodriguez: The Vice President appointed as acting president by Venezuela’s Supreme Court.
• Chavismo: The political ideology associated with Hugo Chávez and continued under Maduro, now potentially continuing under Rodriguez.
• Transitional Government: The temporary administration led by Deli Rodriguez, operating under US oversight.
• Regime Change vs. Change in the Regime: The distinction between completely overthrowing a government versus targeting specific leaders while maintaining existing structures.
• Transactional Politics: The Venezuelan regime’s pragmatic approach to power, prioritizing survival and cooperation when necessary.
• Diaspora Support: The backing of Venezuelan expatriates for potential external intervention.

I. Immediate Aftermath of Maduro’s Capture & Situation in Caracas

Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Caracas is described as unusually quiet. Unlike celebrations seen among Venezuelans abroad, the streets are largely deserted, lacking both celebratory displays and significant protests. A small group of Maduro supporters has gathered around the Miraflores Palace, demanding his return, but no widespread unrest has been reported. The situation is characterized as “oni come” (a state of shock or disbelief) and is expected to unfold over days, weeks, and months. There is a general sense of expectancy among the population regarding the US-led transition, guided by Deli Rodriguez.

II. Economic Context & Public Sentiment

The economic situation in Venezuela is dire, with 600% inflation and salaries below $3 per month. This economic hardship is a key factor influencing the public’s response. Rather than engaging in protests or celebrations, people are focused on resuming their daily lives and attempting to cope with the economic crisis. Norris Sto, reporting from Caracas, notes a lack of immediate resistance, with citizens prioritizing survival.

III. US Involvement & Troop Deployment Concerns

Donald Trump’s statement regarding the possibility of deploying American troops to Venezuela has created confusion. It is unclear whether this would involve a visible military presence on the streets or a different form of intervention. Trump has indicated a need for clarification on this point. The extent of US involvement and the nature of its control over the transition remain uncertain.

IV. Deli Rodriguez’s Appointment & Constitutional Implications

Venezuela’s Supreme Court appointed Deli Rodriguez as acting president. However, her assumption of power is framed as a temporary vacancy, allowing her to potentially remain in office beyond the constitutionally mandated 90-day period. The Venezuelan constitution allows for renewal of these powers with approval from the National Assembly. This raises concerns that Rodriguez could remain in power for over a year, contingent on US actions and her ability to negotiate with them. Rodriguez herself has publicly stated that Maduro remains the only legitimate president.

V. Analysis of the Transition: A “Change in the Regime”

Jesus Renzulo, a Latin American expert, characterizes the transition as a “change in the regime” rather than a complete “regime change.” He suggests the US believes maintaining some of the existing power structures is crucial to prevent instability. He posits that Maduro’s removal may have been a “sacrifice” agreed upon by elements within the Venezuelan political elite to preserve their own power. The US is expected to collaborate with the Rodriguez brothers and other political leaders in Caracas to stabilize the country.

VI. Transactional Nature of the Venezuelan Regime & Internal PR

Renzulo emphasizes the transactional nature of the Venezuelan regime, highlighting its willingness to cooperate with the US to maintain power. He suggests that Rodriguez’s public statements affirming Maduro’s legitimacy are part of an internal public relations campaign, designed to avoid appearing to betray the Chavista narrative while simultaneously cooperating with the US. The regime prioritizes survival above all else.

VII. Potential for US Intervention & Public Reaction

While a rebellion from the Venezuelan elite against US demands is considered unlikely due to their focus on self-preservation, Renzulo notes that a US intervention wouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a catastrophe by the Venezuelan population. Many Venezuelans have been requesting external support for years, having lost hope in internal solutions. The diaspora, in particular, is supportive of external intervention.

VIII. Long-Term Leadership & Future Scenarios

The question of long-term leadership remains open. Currently, the Rodriguez brothers are expected to be in power in the short term. While Donald Trump initially dismissed opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, Renzulo suggests she could regain US support if she navigates the situation strategically.

Notable Quotes:

• Norris Sto: “It’s really early in the morning in Venezuela…and it’s, uh, an oni come. I mean, uh, you see images of other countries, uh, Venezuelans in other countries celebrating…But uh it contrasts a lot with what's happening here in Karacas.”
• Jesus Renzulo: “The Venezuelan regime is transactional by nature. They want to maintain power and that is their key and most important uh request.”

Conclusion:

The capture of Nicolás Maduro has initiated a complex and uncertain transition period in Venezuela. While the immediate aftermath is characterized by quiet expectancy, the long-term outcome hinges on the US’s management of the situation, the cooperation of Deli Rodriguez, and the potential for future political developments. The transition appears to be a strategic “change in the regime” rather than a complete overthrow, prioritizing stability and the preservation of existing power structures. The economic crisis and the desire for change among the Venezuelan population create a volatile environment, with the potential for both cooperation and resistance. The future leadership of Venezuela remains unclear, with multiple possibilities emerging as the situation unfolds.