Who is Prabowo? The man behind Indonesia’s big promises - Asia Specific podcast, BBC World Service

Indonesia at a Crossroads: Prabowo’s Ambitions and the Nation’s Future

Key Concepts:

• Gemoy: Indonesian term describing “cheek-pinchingly cute,” used to characterize Prabowo Subianto’s recent rebranding.
• Stunting: A tragic case of child malnutrition prevalent in Indonesia, particularly in eastern provinces, which Prabowo aims to address with his free lunch program.
• Sovereign Wealth Fund (Danantara): Indonesia’s state investment arm restructured under Prabowo, consolidating state-owned enterprise resources.
• Oligarchy: The underlying power structure in Indonesia and much of Southeast Asia, where business elites heavily influence policy regardless of political changes.
• Asian Financial Crisis (1997): A period of economic turmoil in Asia during which Jonathan Head and Karishma Vaswani first worked together in Jakarta.
• BRICS: A geopolitical association of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which Prabowo is actively seeking to integrate Indonesia into.

I. Historical Context & Prabowo’s Rise

The discussion centers on Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous nation and Southeast Asia’s largest economy, often described as an “invisible nation” due to its limited global soft power. Despite its potential, Indonesia has historically struggled to fully realize it. The current president, Prabowo Subianto, is attempting to change this, focusing on domestic issues like malnutrition and economic growth.

Prabowo’s journey is marked by a complex history. Born into an illustrious family, he spent his youth in exile and returned to Indonesia after the fall of Sukarno, initially lacking fluency in Indonesian. He rose through the military ranks, becoming commander of the elite special forces under Suharto, known for his decisive and ambitious nature. However, his career was derailed after the fall of Suharto in 1998, when he was blamed for riots and exiled to Jordan. Despite this setback, he persistently pursued the presidency, ultimately winning in 2024.

II. The Rebranding of Prabowo & the 2024 Election

Karishma Vaswani highlights Prabowo’s remarkable transformation from a controversial figure to a popular leader, particularly among young Indonesians. This rebranding involved cultivating a “cute” and “cuddly” image on social media platforms like TikTok, embracing the Indonesian concept of “Gemoy” – something irresistibly endearing. This strategy proved successful, appealing to a young electorate seemingly willing to overlook his past. Jonathan Head notes that this reinvention is a testament to Prabowo’s ambition and drive.

III. The Free Lunch Programme: Ambition vs. Reality

Prabowo’s flagship policy is a free daily lunch program for 83 million children, aimed at combating widespread child stunting (affecting one in five children). While the intention is laudable, the program’s implementation has been fraught with challenges. The estimated cost is $10 billion this year, rising to $20 billion next year and $45 billion over five years, exceeding the national health budget. Reports of food poisoning cases have surfaced, raising concerns about the program’s effectiveness.

Jonathan Head argues that the program exemplifies the difficulty of translating populist promises into practical policies. Prabowo’s leadership style, characterized by decisiveness and a personalized approach, is seen as contributing to these implementation issues. He restructured Indonesia’s state investment arm into Danantara, a sovereign wealth fund, concentrating power and resources under loyalists.

IV. Foreign Policy & Indonesia’s Global Role

Prabowo is actively pursuing a more assertive foreign policy, seeking to elevate Indonesia’s international standing. He has fostered a rapport with Donald Trump and is pushing for Indonesia’s membership in the BRICS economic bloc. However, Jonathan Head cautions that Prabowo’s foreign policy is also personalized, with a largely invisible foreign minister and decisions driven by the president’s own inclinations.

Karishma Vaswani notes that while Joko Widodo attempted to revive Indonesia’s foreign policy influence, Prabowo is primarily focused on domestic issues.

V. Indonesia’s Underlying Political & Economic Realities

Despite democratic elections, both Jonathan Head and Karishma Vaswani emphasize that Indonesia operates as an oligarchy. Powerful business interests exert significant influence over policy, regardless of which president is in power. This underlying power structure limits genuine change and perpetuates inequalities. Karishma Vaswani observes that even after the fall of Suharto, the elite largely retained their wealth and influence.

The discussion highlights a growing sense of disillusionment among young Indonesians, who perceive the system as rigged against them. This frustration was evident in recent protests and a willingness to engage in looting, reflecting a belief that their participation in the political process yields little tangible benefit.

VI. Leadership Styles: Jokowi vs. Prabowo

Karishma Vaswani contrasts Prabowo’s top-down, personalized leadership style with that of his predecessor, Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who was perceived as a more traditional “Javanese king.” Prabowo’s approach, while ambitious, is seen as potentially hindering effective governance due to a lack of diverse perspectives and a reliance on loyalists.

Notable Quotes:

• Karishma Vaswani: “There is a degree of whitewashing that's taking place in terms of the either deliberate or involuntary amnesia amongst young people.” (Regarding the acceptance of Suharto as a national hero)
• Jonathan Head: “This need to be decisive in his foreign policy has been quite impulsive…It's a very personalised style of leadership.” (Describing Prabowo’s leadership approach)
• Karishma Vaswani: “Indonesia is an oligarchy…There are enormously powerful business interests who coalesce around whichever president it is to formulate policies.” (Highlighting the underlying power structure in Indonesia)

Conclusion:

Indonesia, under Prabowo Subianto, stands at a critical juncture. While his ambitious policies, like the free lunch program, address pressing issues like child malnutrition, their implementation faces significant challenges. The nation’s complex history, underlying oligarchic structures, and Prabowo’s personalized leadership style raise questions about its ability to achieve its full potential. The success or failure of Prabowo’s presidency will ultimately define Indonesia’s trajectory and its role in the evolving Asian landscape. The jury, as Jonathan Head concludes, is still out.