Who is in charge of Venezuela after Maduro's capture? | DW news

Venezuela: US Military Operation & Transition – Detailed Summary

Key Concepts:

• US Military Intervention: A surprise operation resulting in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
• Transitional Governance: The US intention to “run” Venezuela until a “safe, proper, and judicious transition” can occur.
• Deli Rodriguez: Current Vice President of Venezuela, initially presented as a potential US ally, but subsequently denounced the US intervention.
• Marina Machado: Opposition leader who won the 2024 election (not recognized by Maduro’s government), dismissed by Trump as lacking support.
• Oil Reserves: Venezuela’s significant oil deposits as a key factor in US interest and proposed economic intervention.
• Narco-terrorism: The US justification for the operation, alleging Maduro’s government involvement in drug trafficking.
• International Reaction: Varied responses from Latin American and European leaders, ranging from support to condemnation.

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I. The Operation & Initial US Stance

A US military operation resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cecilia Flores, in Caracas. They were transported to New York to face criminal charges related to weapons trafficking and narcotics. President Trump characterized the operation as a “huge success” and announced the US would “run the country” for the foreseeable future, aiming for a “safe, proper, and judicious transition.” Specific details of this governance plan were initially lacking. Trump indicated a desire to avoid repeating past failures of installing leaders who lack popular support, referencing previous years of instability. He specifically mentioned a conversation with Deli Rodriguez, the Vice President, where she purportedly offered full cooperation, stating, “We’ll do whatever you need.”

II. Venezuelan Response & Conflicting Signals

Deli Rodriguez vehemently denounced the US operation as an “attack on her beloved nation” in a televised address, demanding the immediate release of Maduro and his wife, and reaffirming Maduro as the sole legitimate president. This directly contradicted Trump’s suggestion of cooperation. The US released a photograph of Maduro aboard the USS Euima en route to New York.

Simultaneously, Trump stated the US would leverage Venezuela’s oil reserves, allowing American companies to invest billions and revitalize the country’s “badly broken infrastructure,” with the intention of generating revenue for Venezuela. He framed this as aligning with his “America First” policy by creating “good neighbors.”

III. On-the-Ground Situation in Venezuela

Journalist Norristo, reporting from Caracas, described a state of shock and disbelief among Venezuelans. Initial reactions were characterized by caution and a sense of unreality, likened to a “movie from a streaming series.” People were stocking up on essential goods – water, batteries, gasoline – anticipating potential instability or disaster. Norristo noted that despite strong rhetoric leading up to the operation, Maduro’s capture was largely unexpected.

IV. The Role of the Opposition & Constitutional Concerns

The situation is complicated by the 2024 Venezuelan election, which the opposition candidate Marina Machado purportedly won, but was not recognized by Maduro’s government. Trump dismissed Machado, stating she lacked the “respect of the people” and support from the military.

Norristo highlighted the constitutional framework: in the event of the president’s incapacitation, the Vice President (Deli Rodriguez) assumes power, followed by the President of the Congress. He pointed out the incongruity of Trump suggesting cooperation with Rodriguez after her strong condemnation of the US intervention and her subsequent issuance of an “international emergency decree” – a move requiring approval from the National Assembly.

V. Analysis from Phil Gunson (International Crisis Group)

Phil Gunson, a senior analyst, emphasized the numerous unanswered questions regarding the transition. He questioned whether the remaining Venezuelan government could maintain power, and whether the US intervention would lead to regime change or free and fair elections. He noted the lack of US “boots on the ground” and the critical role of the Venezuelan military in any successful transition.

Gunson argued that the opposition, led by Machado, had effectively outsourced its political strategy to the US, becoming dependent on Washington’s actions. He also cautioned that Trump’s priorities did not necessarily align with Venezuelan democracy and human rights. He highlighted the potential for resistance from Maduro supporters and the complex legal implications of the US intervention.

VI. International Reactions

The intervention elicited a diverse range of responses from international leaders. Argentinian President Javier Milei expressed support (“Long live freedom”). Colombian President Gustavo Petro condemned the intervention and increased military presence along the border. Leaders of Mexico, Cuba, and Chile also denounced the US actions. German Chancellor Fredesh acknowledged Maduro’s ruinous leadership and the flawed election, but stressed the need for careful legal assessment of the intervention under international law and the avoidance of political instability, advocating for an orderly transition to an elected government.

VII. Technical Terms & Concepts

• Narco-terrorism: The use of drug trafficking to finance terrorist activities or destabilize governments. The US cited this as a primary justification for the operation.
• Transitional Governance: The temporary administration of a country during a period of political upheaval, typically aimed at establishing a stable government.
• Constitutional Succession: The process outlined in a country’s constitution for determining who assumes power in the event of the president’s incapacitation or removal.

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Synthesis/Conclusion:

The US military operation in Venezuela represents a dramatic and highly uncertain intervention. While the stated goal is a “safe, proper, and judicious transition,” the path forward is fraught with complexities. The conflicting signals from Venezuelan officials, the uncertain role of the opposition, the critical importance of the military, and the varied international reactions all contribute to a volatile situation. The success of the intervention hinges on navigating these challenges and establishing a legitimate and stable government, while avoiding further escalation and respecting international law. The long-term implications for regional stability and US-Latin American relations remain to be seen.