Who is behind Farage-Tory pact plot?

Key Concepts: Reform UK/Conservative Merger, Reverse Takeover, General Election Strategy, Donor Influence, Labour Leadership Succession, Progressive Vote, Right-wing Unity, Electoral Pact, YouGov MRP Polling, Westminster Chatter, Chief of Staff Influence, Executive Director of Communications, NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting, Ukraine War Diplomacy.

Political Landscape: Reform UK, Conservatives, and Potential Alliances

The discussion opens with a significant report from the Financial Times (FT) on Wednesday, December 3, stating that Nigel Farage has informed donors he anticipates a deal or merger between Reform UK and the Conservative Party before the next general election. This suggests Farage may not believe Reform UK can achieve power independently.

Farage's Stance and Denials: Overnight, Farage issued a statement, noting that "sometimes people hear what they want to hear," and asserted he would "never do a deal with a party that he doesn't trust." Intriguingly, he hinted at "no deals, just a reverse takeover." The FT, quoting a donor, reported that Farage would be prepared for a deal "only on his terms," aiming to expand Reform UK's parliamentary presence from five MPs to potentially over 324, securing a majority.

Strategic Rationale and Tory Perspective: The underlying motivation for such an alliance is to prevent Reform UK and the Conservatives from competing for votes, a scenario that could allow Labour to "sweep to power" with a landslide majority, as hypothetically occurred in a past or future general election.

• Defections: The transcript notes former Tory MPs, including Jonathan Gullis and others from the "Boris Johnson era," have defected to Reform UK.
• Kemi Badenoch's Position: Kemi Badenoch has consistently dismissed claims of a deal, referring to the Conservative Party as a "custodian institution" that has existed for 200 years, not a "toy." She tends to characterize those joining Reform as "jumping ship." However, she did not rule out some form of power-sharing agreement in Wales, where polling suggests Reform is likely to finish strongly ahead of the Conservatives. This is likened to a "German style thing" where parties are prepared to work together if they emerge strongly.
• Donor Pressure: Donors are reportedly pressing Farage to be more open to cooperation and "get off his high horse," recognizing his current limited parliamentary representation.

Polling Data and Internal Tory Appetite: A YouGov MRP poll conducted before the conference season indicated that Reform UK would win 271 seats, falling short of the 324+ needed for an overall majority. This data supports the FT's conclusion that Farage privately doubts his ability to win alone. Furthermore, a YouGov poll of Tory members revealed significant internal support for collaboration:

• 64% supported an electoral pact with Reform UK.
• 46% supported a full-blown merger with Reform UK.

Robert Jenrick's Evolving Views: Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick's comments highlight the internal Tory debate:

• April Recording: Jenrick was recorded vowing to "bring this coalition together" to prevent Conservatives and Reform UK from splitting the right-wing vote and allowing Labour to win. He explicitly stated, "I want the right to be united."
• Tory Conference: Later, Jenrick gave a "teasing" answer regarding pacts, denying support for a deal and emphasizing the need for the Tory party to "change" and "win those people back." While he would deny any difference with Kemi Badenoch, his earlier comments suggest a pragmatic desire for right-wing unity.

The Role of Donors: The discussion emphasizes that the ultimate mechanism for such a deal would be through donor influence. The FT's reporting is praised for highlighting this private conversation. Donors, such as Anthony Bamford of JCB (who donates to both parties), are motivated to avoid "wasting their money" by funding two parties that "slug it out" and inadvertently hand Labour the keys to Number 10. This pressure from donors who do not want to see another Labour government is identified as the "biggest pressure" in this debate. The timeline for such a rapprochement is suggested to be the "back end of 2026," if current political figures remain.

Labour Leadership: Ed Miliband and Starmer's Position

The conversation shifts to Ed Miliband and the ongoing Labour leadership chatter. Miliband was the guest of honor at the New Statesman Christmas party, where he delivered a light-hearted speech.

Miliband's Speech and Ambition:

• He joked about his past electoral failure, stating, "If the polls were right, I would be PM. I would have been PM. And maybe I still would be, but I'm not."
• His message was a rallying cry for progressives: "Don't give up. Progressives need to stand up for what they believed or risk the rise of extremes."
• Despite publicly denying any desire to return to the top job, the hosts note that he "didn't rule anything out" in his address, leading to speculation among Labour MPs and allies who hope he might reconsider.

Keir Starmer's Current Standing: The "midpoint of Westminster chatter" suggests that Keir Starmer's recent budget has "bought himself a bit more time," keeping Labour MPs on his side "for now." However, the question of leadership is merely "deferred" to Q1 of next year, past the local elections.

Potential Successors and Their Challenges: The discussion highlights the problems associated with other potential Labour leadership candidates:

• Angela Rayner: Had to resign due to "tax affairs."
• Andy Burnham: A "standout favorite amongst Labour members," but "he's just not an MP."
• Ed Miliband: The voters "rejected" him as a candidate for Prime Minister in 2015. The hosts argue that putting a previously rejected candidate into Number 10 could be a "recipe for problems," suggesting some in the Labour party are "getting extraordinarily ahead of themselves."

Rachel Reeves and the "Chancellor vs. Leader" Debate: Initially, there was speculation about Rachel Reeves's future if the May elections went poorly. However, an alternative school of thought emerged: if things go badly, "it's going to be Kia Starmer is going to be the problem not Rachel Reeves," shifting the conversation to "are we replacing the leader, not are we replacing the chancellor?"

Future Leadership Race: The possibility of a future leadership contest between figures like West Streeting and Ed Miliband is raised. While Miliband, Rayner, and Burnham are considered "soft left" and align with the "gut of the Labour Party" (the "selectorate"), figures like West Streeting and Shabana Mahmood face the challenge that "their politics don't align with the majority of the Labour members."

Labour's Political Strands and Morgan McSweeney's Diminished Influence

The analysis delves into two distinct, non-overlapping political strands within Keir Starmer's government:

1. Morgan McSweeney's Strand: Focused on voters concerned about Labour becoming "self-indulgent," aiming to "stem the bleeding of voting to the right."
2. Tim Malon's Strand: More evident since his appointment as Executive Director of Communications in September, this strand emphasizes uniting the progressive vote, appealing to "green causes," and avoiding overly harsh rhetoric on immigration. This approach was heard in Starmer's conference speech.

Miliband's Alignment and McSweeney's "Clipping of Wings": Ed Miliband's speech at the Christmas party is interpreted as aligning more with Tim Malon's progressive strand. The relationship between Morgan McSweeney and Ed Miliband is described as not good, while Starmer and Miliband have a good relationship, despite suggestions of a "rocky" relationship between Starmer and McSweeney.

A significant piece of news regarding Morgan McSweeney is reported: Tom Baldwin, Starmer's biographer, stated that McSweeney has been told by the Prime Minister "not to talk to journalists anymore." This has been independently confirmed, with Number 10 staff informed about two weeks prior, following the "West Streeting briefing row." This is seen as a "semi-public clipping of Morgan McSweeney's wings," indicating a shift in power and influence, especially given that Starmer had previously considered demoting him. This marks a "small embarrassment for a man who... was master of all he surveys" at the beginning of the year.

International Affairs: Ukraine War Diplomacy

The podcast briefly touches on international affairs:

• Yvette Cooper is in Brussels for a NATO foreign ministers meeting.
• Jared Kushner and Steve Whitov recently met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow, but "don't seem to have got any further."
• The hosts question the utility of pursuing talks when it appears Putin "doesn't want to stop the invasion" of Ukraine anytime soon.
• A Russian commentator's perspective is cited: Putin's "weakest point" would be announcing a ceasefire, as he would then have to explain the terms and why he hasn't achieved more in the war. Putin has pivoted to "saber rattling about Europe."
• Sam Coats plans to explore the British position on the potential end of the Ukraine conflict in a future Politico podcast.

Conclusion

The podcast provides a detailed snapshot of current British political dynamics. The potential for a Reform UK-Conservative merger, driven by donor pressure and a shared desire to prevent a Labour landslide, is a significant development, despite public denials. Simultaneously, the Labour Party grapples with internal leadership questions, with Ed Miliband's ambiguous stance and the challenges facing other potential successors. The shifting influence within Starmer's inner circle, particularly the diminished role of Morgan McSweeney, signals a strategic reorientation. The brief international segment underscores the ongoing complexities of the Ukraine war and the challenges of diplomatic engagement with Russia.