Who is attending Russia's Victory Day parade? | BBC News

Key Concepts

Victory Day, Moscow, Ukraine, Propaganda, Geopolitics, Xi Jinping, Information Warfare, Sanctions, VPN, False Flag, BRICS, Western Leaders, Russian Media, Security, Mobile Network Shutdown, International Relations.

Atmosphere in Moscow on the Eve of Victory Day

Ben Tavern, the producer in Moscow, describes a celebratory atmosphere with pervasive Victory Day (pabeda) imagery. The 80th-anniversary celebrations are visible everywhere, from shop windows to public transport. However, security is extremely high with a heavy police presence and road closures around Red Square. Mobile internet access is intermittently disrupted due to rehearsals, and the entire mobile network is expected to be down for several hours during the parade.

Historical Context and Significance of Victory Day

Lee Ducet recounts attending Victory Day in 2015, emphasizing the sense of national pride and sorrow for the millions who died in the war. She notes how the event has become increasingly relevant in the context of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with Putin potentially seeking to frame it as a victory within the ongoing conflict. Ducet also recalls President Clinton's attendance at the 50th Victory Day in 1995, a time when Western leaders were grappling with how to address the war in Chechnya. Clinton gave a speech acknowledging the sacrifices of the Soviet Union during the war.

International Attendance at the Victory Day Parade

The Kremlin initially announced 29 international leaders would attend, but this number includes leaders from Abkhazia and South Ossetia, territories with limited international recognition. The presidents of Azerbaijan and Laos have since pulled out. Key attendees include Xi Jinping (on a three-day official visit), the Brazilian president, and representatives from other BRICS countries. Leaders from the "Soviet bloc," Latin America (e.g., Nicaragua, Venezuela), and a "dissenting Europe group" (e.g., Serbia, potentially Slovakia's Prime Minister Fitzo) are also expected. A newer group of attendees comes from African nations (e.g., Zimbabwe, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea), reflecting Russia's efforts to expand its geopolitical influence in Africa. The number of foreign leaders attending is similar to 2015, a significant increase from the reduced numbers in 2022 and 2023 following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

China's Role and Potential for Mediation

Erica from Glasgow asks if Xi Jinping could present a pitch for global leadership by achieving a sustainable ceasefire in Ukraine. Lee Ducet notes China's success in brokering a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, she argues that while President Trump is in the mix, he is unlikely to allow Xi Jinping to take the lead on Ukraine due to the ongoing superpower rivalry. Ducet also recalls how Zelenskyy initially sought China's help as a potential path to Moscow. While acknowledging that "never say never," Ducet believes a Chinese-brokered peace is unlikely in the current context. She argues that the war would end quickly if Xi Jinping wanted it to, given China's economic support for Russia. Ben adds that Xi's visit is also about business, with numerous documents being signed.

Information Warfare and Access to Information in Russia

Anthony from Hertfordshire asks about Ukraine's or its allies' attempts to break through the Kremlin's information barrier. Vitali Shvchenko confirms that Ukraine has Russian-language media platforms, and the BBC Russian service has existed for decades. He argues that accessing impartial information is still possible in Russia, primarily through platforms like Telegram, despite government blocks. While spreading or sharing dissenting information is punishable, accessing it is not. Ben Tavern notes that while some Russians parrot the official party line, many others are not watching TV and are finding ways to access alternative sources of information, including VPNs. He emphasizes that disruptions to daily life, such as airport closures and shelling in border regions, are more effective in prompting people to seek alternative information. Ukraine has conducted limited operations to capture airwaves in annexed Crimea and Belgorod.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex interplay of politics, security, and information control surrounding Victory Day in Moscow. While the event is presented as a celebration of national pride, it is also heavily guarded and used to project an image of strength and international support, particularly through the presence of Xi Jinping. Despite the Kremlin's efforts to control the narrative, access to alternative information remains possible, and disruptions to daily life are proving to be a more effective catalyst for questioning the official line.