Who could replace Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin? | BBC Ukrainecast

Ukrainecast Summary

Key Concepts:

• Long-range Tomahawk missiles, mobilization law, brain drain, Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act, NATO, Article 4, Article 5, UN Security Council veto, peacekeeping force, Union State, Putin's succession.

I. The Situation in Ukraine

• Oppressive Environment: James Waterhouse describes the environment in Kyiv as "more oppressive" than before, with visible exhaustion among friends and colleagues.
• Air Raids: The frequency and intensity of Russian air raids, particularly the 12-hour raid, are taking a toll. Russia's missiles are evolving faster than Ukraine's air defenses.
• Ballistic Missile Strike: A specific example of a ballistic missile strike in a Kyiv suburb is detailed, highlighting the devastating impact on residents and their homes.
• Troop Morale: While some troops remain highly patriotic and motivated, there is widespread fatigue. However, Ukrainians see no other choice but to defend themselves.

II. Ukrainian Mobilization Law and Demographic Challenges

• Unpopular Mobilization Law: The mobilization law, which prevents men aged 18-60 from leaving the country, is deeply unpopular. There is no cap on service.
• Relaxation for Younger Men: Zelensky has allowed men aged 18-22 to leave and return to Ukraine freely, aiming to relieve political pressure and prevent a "brain drain."
• Trump's Pressure: Donald Trump is pressuring Zelensky to mobilize more men, questioning the justification for US aid if Ukraine isn't doing enough.
• University Incentives: Ukrainian universities are offering scholarships to attract talent back and prevent further emigration.
• Population Decline: Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million due to external and internal displacement.
• Avoiding Conscription: Some parents are sending their children abroad before they turn 18 to avoid conscription, which Zelensky sees as detrimental to their connection to Ukraine.

III. US Aid to Ukraine

• Tomahawk Missiles: The US is considering supplying long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.
• Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act: The Lend-Lease Act of 2022 was never fully enacted. It aimed to provide defense equipment without immediate payment.
• Current Mechanism: Currently, NATO countries can buy US weapons to send to Ukraine. Trump's priority is that nothing is given for free.
• Intelligence and Defense Systems: The US is providing intelligence and some defense systems like Patriots, but there are delivery delays and expenses.
• Lend-Lease Revival: A revival of the Lend-Lease Act under Trump is uncertain, as he prefers immediate payment.
• Criticism of US Aid: Ukrainians feel that US aid has been too slow and infrequent. They believe earlier and more decisive action could have prevented the full-scale invasion.

IV. The United Nations and Russia's Veto Power

• Frustration with the UN: Lee from Stoke on Trent, a veteran, expresses frustration that Russia, the aggressor, has veto power in the UN Security Council.
• Founding Members' Veto: Russia, the US, China, the UK, and France, as founding members, have veto power.
• Global Platform: The UN is a global platform where all sides are supposed to have their say.
• Frustration for Ukraine: Ukraine and its allies are frustrated by Russia's ability to justify the invasion and block action in the Security Council.
• Legality of War: Russia's invasion is considered illegal because it lacks a UN Security Council resolution. Ukraine claims self-defense, which is legal.
• Nuclear Power: Russia's nuclear power influences the world's response.
• Sovereignty Violation: Russia's invasion violates the UN charter's principle of respecting national sovereignty.

V. International Peacekeeping Forces in Ukraine

• Russia's Opposition: Russia categorically refuses to accept any foreign peacekeeping force on Ukrainian soil.
• Territorial Control: Russia wants to maintain control over the territory it has taken.
• Western Troops: Putin doesn't want well-trained Western troops, especially American, on the ground in Ukraine after a ceasefire.
• US Influence: The US holds significant influence. If Putin can impress his demands and Trump becomes impatient to end the war, conditions could change.
• Ideology: Putin's demands are rooted in his ideology, making compromise difficult.
• Illusion of Concession: Russia's stated goal of complete control of four provinces, even though it hasn't achieved it, creates the illusion of a concession.

VI. NATO and Belarus

• Article 4 and 5: If drones are launched from Belarus, NATO could trigger Article 4 (urgent consultation) or Article 5 (mutual assistance).
• No Automatic War: Even Article 5 doesn't mean automatic war; members decide how to respond.
• Belarus-Russia Ties: Belarus and Russia have close ties and a mutual defense pact.
• Proportionate Response: The mutual defense pact calls for a "proportionate response" to aggression, leaving room for interpretation.
• Union State: The "Union State" is a deep partnership between Belarus and Russia based on bilateral treaties and agreements.
• Testing Moscow's Resolve: NATO is unlikely to test Moscow's resolve in defending Belarus, given Putin's investment in restoring lost influence.
• Russian Involvement: Any action launched from Belarus would likely involve direct Russian involvement.

VII. What if Putin Dies?

• Succession: Putin has amended the constitution to stay in power until 2036, so succession is not a priority.
• Potential Successors: Potential successors include Prime Minister Mikail Mishin, Security Chief Nikolai Petrushev, and Moscow Mayor Serge Sabanin, but their positions are not guaranteed.
• Control and Elimination of Rivals: Putin surrounds himself with loyalists and has allegedly eliminated or promoted rivals.
• Consolidation of Power: Putin has consolidated his position through control of security forces, the media, and lucrative military contracts.
• Uncertainty After Putin: There is no guarantee that Putin's replacement would alter Russia's course.
• Elite Reconsideration: Kyiv argues that there are not enough pressures or incentives for the Russian elite to reconsider the war in Ukraine.
• Momentous Event: Putin's departure will be momentous and potentially dramatic, possibly leading to a more difficult situation for Russia.
• Power Vacuum: A sudden death could create a power vacuum, potentially leading to a change in policy if the elite decide to end the war.

VIII. Conclusion

The discussion highlights the complex and multifaceted nature of the Ukraine conflict, encompassing military, political, diplomatic, and social dimensions. The speakers emphasize the ongoing challenges faced by Ukraine, the limitations of international organizations like the UN, and the uncertainties surrounding the future of Russia and its leadership. The potential for escalation and the difficulty of finding a resolution are recurring themes.