Where is Gold and Silver Going in 2026 | John Ciampaglia and Jimmy Connor

Precious Metals Outlook: 2026 and Beyond

Key Concepts:

• SPRAT: Sprott Asset Management, a company specializing in precious metal trusts and investment strategies.
• AUM: Assets Under Management – the total market value of the financial assets that a financial institution manages.
• Debasement: The reduction in the intrinsic value of money, often due to increased money supply.
• Fiat Currency: Government-issued currency that is not backed by a physical commodity like gold.
• DXY: The U.S. Dollar Index, measuring the dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major currencies.
• M2: A measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money.
• Geopolitical Risk: Risks stemming from political instability, conflicts, or tensions between nations.
• Dollarization/De-dollarization: The process of a country adopting the US dollar as its official currency (dollarization) or reducing its reliance on the US dollar in international trade and reserves (de-dollarization).

I. 2025: A Landmark Year for Precious Metals

The discussion centers around the exceptional performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, in 2025. Gold experienced a price increase of over 50%, marking the second-best calendar year performance since 1979 (with 1979 being the best). This surge followed a 25% increase in 2024. The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest physical gold trust, saw a substantial influx of $1.5 billion in net flows, a significant improvement over the $300 million received in 2024, demonstrating a stronger alignment between performance and investor interest. The trust’s AUM now stands at approximately $15 billion.

II. Drivers of Performance: Economic and Geopolitical Factors

Several key factors are driving the increased interest in and performance of precious metals:

• Shifting Geopolitical Risks: Increased global instability and uncertainty are pushing investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.
• De-dollarization: Central banks are actively reducing their exposure to US Treasuries and diversifying into physical assets, notably gold, as a store of value.
• Central Bank Demand: Central banks have been acquiring 25-30% of global gold production annually for the past three to four years. Countries like China, Poland, Singapore, and Turkey are increasing their gold reserves and reducing reliance on fiat currencies. China’s substantial holdings of US Treasuries are being actively sold and recycled into gold.
• Investor Return: Investors, initially hesitant in 2024, are now returning to gold, evidenced by strong inflows into gold ETFs and physical gold trusts.
• Concerns about AI Bubbles & Equity Valuations: Investors are seeking to mitigate risks associated with potential bubbles in equity markets, particularly those related to Artificial Intelligence.
• Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Ongoing trade disputes and tariffs contribute to economic uncertainty, driving demand for safe-haven assets.

III. Monetary Policy and the Role of Money Printing

The discussion highlights the impact of monetary policy on precious metal prices. The US money supply (M2) has increased by 42% over the past five years, rising from $15.4 trillion in January/February 2020 to $22 trillion currently. This substantial money printing is fueling concerns about currency debasement – a term increasingly used by mainstream media. Investors are worried about the erosion of purchasing power and the difficulty governments face in rolling over debt. The independence of the Federal Reserve is also being questioned.

IV. The US Dollar and its Implications

The US dollar has declined by 10% in the year under discussion (measured by the DXY). While the administration publicly supports a strong dollar, the currency’s weakening has provided a boost to gold prices. The devaluation is seen as a tactic in trade disputes, making US exports more competitive.

V. Expert Perspectives and Price Predictions

Prominent investors like Ray Dalio, Jeffrey Gunlack, and Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) are increasingly bullish on gold. Dimon, for the first time in his career, described investing in gold as “semi-rational” and suggested a potential price range of $5,000 to $10,000 per ounce in the current economic environment. Banks like JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America now have price targets for gold that exceed current spot prices.

VI. Silver’s Surge and Underlying Dynamics

Silver has outperformed gold, increasing in value by nearly 100% in the year discussed. After years of frustration and failing to break through the $50 level (previously reached in 2010-2011), silver has finally gained momentum. The SPDR Physical Silver Trust has seen inflows of approximately $1 billion. The surge is attributed to a growing silver deficit, increasing institutional and retail demand, and a favorable value ratio relative to gold (the gold-to-silver exchange ratio has decreased). Silver’s industrial applications and limited above-ground stockpiles contribute to its scarcity.

VII. Investor Sentiment and Portfolio Allocation

Investor interest in precious metals is rising, with more generalist investors inquiring about positioning in both physical metals and mining stocks. While some ETFs are still experiencing net outflows, the overall trend suggests a growing awareness of the benefits of precious metals. Some banks are suggesting new asset allocation models that allocate up to 20% of portfolios to physical gold, replacing some fixed income allocations. Many investors remain underexposed to gold, presenting a potential opportunity for growth.

VIII. Resources for Further Information

Sprott Asset Management (sprot.com) provides extensive research, reports, podcasts, and webcasts on precious metals and other commodities, all available free of charge.

Conclusion:

The discussion paints a highly optimistic picture for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, in 2026 and beyond. Driven by geopolitical risks, central bank demand, concerns about currency debasement, and a weakening US dollar, the market is experiencing a structural shift towards these safe-haven assets. While the recent price increases have been significant, experts believe that the sector is still in its early stages, with substantial potential for further growth. Investors are encouraged to consider adding precious metals to their portfolios as a hedge against economic uncertainty and a store of value in a changing global landscape.