Where does the US stand, one year into Trump’s second presidency? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Trump Politique: A style of leveraging American power aggressively to achieve desired outcomes, prioritizing national interests as defined by the President.
• Unitary Executive Theory: The idea that the President possesses largely unconstrained power in all areas of policy, minimizing the co-equal role of Congress.
• Tariffs & Trade Wars: Imposition of taxes on imported goods, intended to protect domestic industries but potentially leading to retaliatory measures from other countries.
• AI Investment Boom: Significant increase in investment within the Artificial Intelligence sector, currently a key driver of US economic activity.
• Polarization: The increasing division of the American public along political lines, enabling a President to consolidate power.
• Authoritarianism: A form of government characterized by strong central power and limited political freedoms.

Economic Performance Under Trump’s Second Term

The video analyzes the economic performance of the United States one year into Donald Trump’s second term, contrasting it with his initial promises of a “golden age of prosperity.” While US exports increased by 2.5% reaching $302 billion in October 2025, overall economic growth was only around 2% – comparable to the growth experienced under his predecessor, Joe Biden. Car sales were described as “very much disappointing.”

A key feature of Trump’s economic policy has been the implementation of significant import tariffs – 15% plus on almost all foreign trading partners. This generated approximately $300 billion in government revenue, intended for debt reduction and tax cuts. However, declining imports are now impacting customs revenue. Businesses, particularly in electrical, metal, and even the chocolate industry, are facing challenges due to increased costs and limited access to specialized imported products. One business owner stated, “If the tariffs really drastically strangle my business and my affordability of running this business, then I will have to look at ending this.”

The labor market has not seen the promised “golden age,” with unemployment remaining steady at around 4% since Trump took office. Only approximately 600,000 new jobs were created in 2025, fewer than in 2024. The stock market, however, has performed strongly, with the S&P index exceeding 6,000 points, benefiting the over 60% of Americans invested in the market. Inflation remains a concern, hovering just under 3%, above the 2% target set by the US Federal Reserve. President Trump announced a wave of foreign investment, but the full impact won’t be assessable until early 2026, though experts predict an increase.

International Relations & Foreign Policy

Beyond domestic economics, the video highlights growing concerns among US allies regarding Trump’s foreign policy. The US has reduced support for Ukraine and renewed demands for expanded control over Greenland, citing national security concerns. French President Emanuel Macron, speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, warned against this approach, stating, “Without collective governance, cooperation gives way to relentless competition…competition from the United States of America through trade agreements that undermine our export interests…combined with an endless accumulation of new tariffs that are fundamentally unacceptable.”

Analysis of Trump’s Approach to Power

Peter Trouitz, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics, characterizes Trump’s approach as “Trump politique” – a relentless leveraging of American power to achieve desired outcomes. He connects this to the “unitary executive” theory, which posits that the President holds largely unconstrained power, diminishing the role of Congress. Trouitz notes that Trump is exploiting political polarization to consolidate power and implement his policies, regardless of public opinion. He points to the unpopularity of the Greenland proposal (supported by only 8-10% of Americans) as an example of Trump pursuing his agenda despite lacking broad public support. Trouitz also highlights the unprecedented pace and centralization of power within the White House under Trump, comparing it to the Nixon administration but noting Trump’s approach is even more pronounced.

Expert Perspectives on Economic Impact & Political Consequences

Daniel Dresner, Professor of International Politics at Tufts University, acknowledges that Trump’s economic policies haven’t been as disastrous as initially feared, but argues the economy is slightly worse off than it was a year prior. He attributes this to the uncertainty created by Trump’s tariffs and overall policy unpredictability, which has curtailed investment outside of the AI sector. Dresner predicts Trump will likely face a political price in the upcoming midterm elections, as voters are dissatisfied with affordability issues and perceive Trump as more focused on foreign policy than domestic concerns.

Dresner outlines two potential indicators of a shift towards authoritarianism: the Supreme Court consistently upholding unconstitutional actions by Trump, and attempts to suppress voting in the midterm elections. He notes that while the latter is difficult due to the federal system, actions like invoking the Insurrection Act or deploying federal troops to cities would signal a significant erosion of democratic norms.

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The video establishes a clear connection between Trump’s economic policies (tariffs, deregulation) and their impact on both the domestic economy and international relations. The analysis demonstrates how Trump’s “America First” approach, characterized by aggressive negotiation tactics and a disregard for traditional alliances, is reshaping the global landscape. The expert interviews provide context and analysis, highlighting the underlying principles driving Trump’s actions (unitary executive theory, leveraging polarization) and assessing the potential long-term consequences.

The main takeaway is that while some economic indicators (stock market) appear positive, the overall picture is more complex and nuanced than Trump’s initial promises suggested. The video suggests that Trump’s policies are driven more by a desire to exert power and achieve specific goals than by a commitment to broad-based economic prosperity or international cooperation. The potential for a shift towards authoritarianism, while not yet confirmed, remains a significant concern.