'When you deal with the Chinese, you deal on the basis of reciprocity': Robertson

Key Concepts

• US Protectionism: The increasing trend of the United States implementing trade barriers and prioritizing domestic industries.
• Canola & Seafood Tariffs: Chinese tariffs imposed on Canadian canola, seafood, and pork in response to Canadian EV tariffs and the “Two Michaels” incident.
• Reciprocity (Quid Pro Quo): The principle of mutual benefit in international relations, particularly emphasized in dealings with China.
• Red Lines: Clearly defined boundaries of acceptable behavior, particularly regarding foreign interference and disinformation.
• KUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement): The trade agreement replacing NAFTA, currently under renegotiation with the US.
• Charm Offensive: A diplomatic strategy involving positive public relations and outreach efforts.
• Auto Pact: A historical agreement ensuring jobs in the Canadian auto industry.

Prime Minister Carney’s Trip to China: Navigating Trade, Red Lines, and US Relations

This discussion focuses on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent trip to China, the first Canadian Prime Ministerial visit in eight years, occurring amidst increasing US protectionism. The primary goal of the trip is to stabilize the Canada-China relationship and explore opportunities for trade relief and investment. Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat, provides insights into the complexities of this undertaking.

Stabilizing the Canada-China Relationship Post-2018

The relationship between Canada and China has been strained since 2017, particularly following the 2018 detention of the “Two Michaels” – Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Carney’s visit aims to move beyond this period of “doldrums” and re-establish a functional relationship. A key area of focus is the potential for resolving existing trade disputes, specifically the tariffs imposed by China on Canadian canola, seafood, and pork. Robertson believes a complete deal is unlikely on this first visit, but anticipates the establishment of a process leading to eventual tariff movement on both sides. These Chinese tariffs were strategically placed on products originating from various Canadian provinces, intentionally exacerbating federal-provincial tensions.

EV Tariffs and Potential Chinese Investment

The discussion highlights the interconnectedness of trade issues. Canada’s EV tariffs, implemented alongside the United States a couple of years ago when Chrystia Freeland was Finance Minister, prompted the Chinese response. The possibility of revisiting these EV tariffs is on the table, but is contingent on Chinese investment in Canadian manufacturing, specifically the establishment of factories with technology transfer – mirroring the successful models of Korean and Japanese investment in the 1990s and the original Auto Pact. Premier Ford has publicly stated this condition. The concern is protecting Canadian jobs in the face of potential disruptions caused by US trade policies under Mr. Trump.

China’s “Charm Offensive” and the Principle of Reciprocity

Robertson notes that China is currently engaged in a “charm offensive” towards Canada, seeking to create a wedge between Canada and the United States. China is willing to consider investment in Canada, but expects quid pro quo – a reciprocal benefit. He emphasizes that successful negotiations with China require understanding and applying the principle of reciprocity, something Canada has not always done effectively in the past, sometimes being “naive” in its approach. Discussions will also cover “red lines” regarding Chinese interference in Canada and disinformation campaigns.

Enforcing Red Lines and International Trends

Robertson argues that China consistently tests boundaries and assesses how far it can push without facing consequences. He believes Canadian public opinion and parliamentarians are now demanding stronger enforcement of these “red lines,” including potential responses like reciprocal diplomatic expulsions and prosecution of individuals violating Canadian laws. This trend is not unique to Canada; similar approaches are being adopted by Britain, the United States, Australia, and New Zealand.

Human Rights and Diplomatic Strategy

The discussion touches on the approach to raising human rights concerns with China. Carney is expected to adopt a strategy similar to that of former Prime Ministers Brian Mulroney and Lester Pearson, focusing on specific cases with direct Canadian connections, rather than broad, generalized criticisms. This approach is considered more likely to be taken seriously by the Chinese government.

Navigating US Trade Negotiations (KUSMA)

The entire context of the China trip is framed by ongoing negotiations with the United States regarding KUSMA. Maintaining a preferential trade relationship with the US remains Canada’s top priority. However, the possibility of KUSMA being terminated by the Trump administration necessitates exploring alternative trade relationships, hence the engagement with China, Qatar, and a planned “Team Canada” mission to Asia and India. The question arises whether the US would view Canada’s diversification of trade partners positively or negatively.

Diplomatic Approach and Transparency

Robertson stresses the importance of a traditional diplomatic approach – maintaining open communication with both China and the United States, providing them with advance notice of Canada’s actions, and avoiding surprises. He highlights the role of Canada’s ambassadors, Mark Weiseman in Washington and Jennifer May in China, in facilitating this communication. This approach, he argues, has been historically successful for Canada.

Notable Quote:

“When you deal with the Chinese, you deal on the basis of reciprocity. And we've not always taken advantage of that in the past. I think sometimes we've been a bit naive, but I think we go into this, as they say, eyes wide open.” – Colin Robertson

Conclusion:

Prime Minister Carney’s trip to China represents a strategic effort to stabilize a crucial relationship amidst a shifting global trade landscape and increasing US protectionism. Success hinges on a nuanced approach that balances the pursuit of trade opportunities with the firm enforcement of Canadian “red lines” and a clear understanding of the principle of reciprocity. The trip must also be carefully managed in the context of ongoing negotiations with the United States to safeguard Canada’s economic interests. A key takeaway is the need for proactive diplomacy, transparency, and a willingness to explore alternative trade partnerships as a contingency plan.