When will the Israel-Hamas peace plan come into action? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Gaza Peace Plan: A multi-phase agreement aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza.
• Ceasefire: A temporary or permanent cessation of hostilities.
• Hostage Release: The freeing of Israeli citizens held captive by Hamas.
• Prisoner Exchange: The reciprocal release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
• Withdrawal of Troops: The removal of Israeli military forces from Gaza.
• Humanitarian Aid: The provision of essential supplies (e.g., food, medicine) to Gaza.
• Trump Plan (20 points): A comprehensive peace proposal for the Middle East, of which only a few points are currently being addressed.
• Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement): The Palestinian militant and political organization governing Gaza.
• IDF (Israel Defense Forces): Israel's military.
• Palestinian Authority: The governing body of the Palestinian autonomous regions in the West Bank.
• Far-right ministers: Members of the Israeli cabinet (e.g., Itamar Beng, Bessel Motridge) ideologically opposed to a ceasefire.
• Hostages Square: A public space in Tel Aviv where families of hostages gather.

Announcement of the Gaza Peace Plan and Initial Reactions

US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have both agreed to the first phase of a Gaza peace plan, which includes a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages. Trump stated that Washington would ensure compliance with the deal, which he was informed was imminent by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Hamas confirmed the agreement in a press statement, outlining its terms: "After responsible and serious negotiations between Hamas and the Palestinian Resistance factions, the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, announces reaching an agreement stipulating an end to the war on Gaza, the occupation's withdrawal from it, the entry of aid, and a prisoner exchange."

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the deal as a "moral victory for Israel and a diplomatic success." He posted on X, "A great day for Israel. I thank the heroic IDF soldiers and all the security forces. Thanks to their courage and sacrifice, we have reached this day. I thank President Trump and his team from the bottom of my heart for their mobilization for this sacred mission of freeing our hostages."

Under this initial phase, Israel is expected to begin withdrawing troops from Gaza, and Hamas has committed to releasing 20 living hostages back to Israel in the coming days.

Emotional Responses and Public Sentiment

The news was met with widespread jubilation in both Israel and Gaza. In Tel Aviv, former hostages and families of current hostages celebrated. A mother of an Israeli hostage, Matan Zangoka, expressed overwhelming relief and joy, stating, "They're coming back. Matan is coming back. I can't breathe... Hug and kiss him. Just tell him that I love him... To see his eyes sink into mine. To see him hug his sisters Shani and Natali. And to see him hug Elana, the love of his life, it's overwhelming." Families of the remaining 48 hostages gathered in Tel Aviv, expressing gratitude to President Trump and inviting him to speak at Hostages Square during his next visit to Israel.

In Gaza, similar scenes of jubilation were observed. The territory has been "decimated by this two-year war," with most Gazans having lost homes, livelihoods, and struggling with famine. The ceasefire brings welcome relief, though concerns remain about the decades-long rebuilding process and the possibility of Israel resuming fighting after the hostages are returned, as seen in March earlier this year.

Immediate Next Steps and Phase One Details

DW correspondent Emily Gordin outlined the immediate timeline for the deal's implementation:

1. Cabinet Approval: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will present the deal to his cabinet for approval. While far-right ministers like Itamar Beng and Bessel Motridge are ideologically opposed, they do not hold a majority, making approval likely.
2. 72-Hour Clock: Once approved, a 72-hour countdown begins.
3. Israeli Withdrawal: Israel is expected to withdraw its military to an agreed line, though it will retain control of "a bit over 50% of Gaza's territory."
4. Hostage Release: Hamas will then begin releasing the remaining 48 Israeli hostages (with 20 believed to be alive in the immediate phase).
5. Palestinian Prisoner Release: In return, Israel will release Palestinian prisoners from its jails, including 250 serving life sentences. The potential release of Marwan Barghouti, a prominent Palestinian political figure, is also a question, though the list of names is still being finalized.

It was emphasized that this is only the first phase of the deal, with many subsequent phases and details yet to be negotiated.

Analysis of the Breakthrough and Remaining Challenges

DW Middle East analyst Shani Rosanis described the deal as "definitely a major breakthrough," bringing an "immediate clear end to the fighting" and a "path to return of the hostages." However, she highlighted that the Trump Plan consists of 20 points, and only about four are currently being addressed. The remaining 16 points, concerning the future of Gaza, reconciliation, and reconstruction, are "still left untouched," indicating a long path to a sustainable solution.

Driving Force Behind the Deal: Rosanis attributed the breakthrough primarily to "American pressure." She suggested that an Israeli attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar/Doha about a month prior served as a "wake-up call" for the US and the Arab world, signaling that Israel had "lost its clear trajectory and goals" in the war. This prompted President Trump, with support from Arab pressure led by the Qataris, to take a more active role. Israelis widely acknowledge and thank President Trump for his intervention.

Major Sticking Points and Future Uncertainties:

• Fate of Deceased Hostages: The deal's immediate phase covers 20 living hostages. The fate of the remaining 28 (assumed to be bodies) is unclear, with Hamas claiming difficulty in tracing them amidst Gaza's destruction and requiring more time.
• Final Israeli Withdrawal: This is explicitly linked in the agreement to the release of the last of the hostages, creating a potential future sticking point.
• Netanyahu's Political Position: While far-right ministers in his cabinet oppose the deal, they have been less vocal than in previous instances. This is attributed to strong American pressure, Trump's popularity among the Israeli right-wing base, and the strategic consideration of upcoming elections (deadline October 26th), where opposing hostage returns would be politically damaging.

Palestinian Perspective and Hamas's Future: For Hamas, a significant achievement of this deal is their continued relevance and participation in negotiations. Rosanis noted that Hamas is "still standing" and has managed to "hold on to control of Gaza and to remain a viable relevant partner to any solution for the future of Gaza," a scenario unfathomable two years ago. Hamas is leveraging the ceasefire and the promised entry of 600 aid trucks a day (starting tomorrow) to the Gazan population, presenting themselves as the bringers of relief.

While the Palestinian Authority is expected to eventually govern Gaza in the long term, the current deal does not address these long-term governance issues. This leaves an "opening for Hamas to somehow retain connection to power" in any future governing entity in Gaza.

Conclusion

This agreement represents a crucial initial step towards de-escalation, driven significantly by US diplomatic pressure. It brings immediate relief through a ceasefire, initial hostage and prisoner exchanges, and humanitarian aid. However, it addresses only a fraction of the broader Trump Plan, leaving the complex issues of Gaza's long-term future, reconstruction, and governance largely unresolved. The path forward will require extensive further negotiations, indicating that this is "certainly not completely over."