When Will Gold & Silver Make New Highs?

Bald Guy Money - Market Volatility, Gold, Silver & Future Outlook (February 2026)

Key Concepts:

• Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA): An investment strategy where a fixed amount of money is invested at regular intervals, regardless of asset price.
• Bull Market: A period of sustained price increases in a financial market.
• Bearish/Bullish: Bearish indicates a negative outlook, expecting prices to fall. Bullish indicates a positive outlook, expecting prices to rise.
• Quantitative Easing (QE): A monetary policy where a central bank purchases government bonds or other assets to increase the money supply and lower interest rates.
• Futures Price/Spot Price: Futures price is the price agreed upon today for delivery at a specified future date. Spot price is the current market price for immediate delivery.
• Backwardation: A market situation where the current spot price is higher than prices trading in the futures market.
• COMX: The commodity exchange for metals, specifically silver in this context, where contracts are traded.
• 50-Day Moving Average: The average price of an asset over the past 50 trading days, used as a technical indicator.
• Ghost Listings: Fake job postings used by companies to create the illusion of growth and attract resumes.

I. Market Overview & Performance (YTD 2026)

The markets have experienced significant volatility in the past two weeks, impacting gold, silver, stocks, and Bitcoin. Despite this volatility, silver is up nearly 8% and gold is up nearly 15% year-to-date (YTD) in 2026, outperforming the S&P 500, mirroring their performance in 2025. The speaker emphasizes evaluating investments against the initial purchase price and alternative options, rather than solely against current market prices. Holding cash has potentially resulted in a 30% loss of value over the past 5 years, making gold and silver comparatively strong performers. He acknowledges the stress caused by market fluctuations but urges viewers to revisit their initial investment rationale.

II. The Kevin Walsh Factor & US Dollar Strategy

The announcement of Kevin Walsh as President Trump’s nominee to replace Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve coincided with a US dollar breakdown and a breakout for gold and silver. This timing was strategic, as the administration aims for a weaker dollar but fears a rapid decline could destabilize the US economy and trigger a sell-off of American stocks, particularly with the “sell America” narrative gaining traction. The administration’s response, including a media campaign portraying Walsh as anti-lower interest rates and critical of gold/silver, temporarily stabilized the dollar and dampened enthusiasm for precious metals.

However, the odds of two or more interest rate cuts in 2026 increased after Walsh’s nomination. This is attributed to the fact that approximately 30-40% of US GDP growth is driven by AI-related investments by major tech companies, while the real economy remains sluggish, evidenced by US job openings being at their lowest levels in over 5 years (currently 6.5 million, potentially lower due to approximately 25% being "ghost listings"). The speaker anticipates continued lower interest rates and quantitative easing, with the Federal Reserve already adding $70 billion to its balance sheet since December of last year.

III. Central Bank Activity & Global Gold Dynamics

Central banks are aware of the US dollar devaluation strategy and are not deterred by pullbacks in gold prices. In fact, they actively bought the dip in October and November 2025, coinciding with a 10% price drop from $4,400 to $4,000 per ounce. Large investors and financial institutions are also advising a “buy the dip” strategy for gold. Scott Bessant, the US Treasury Secretary, has acknowledged China’s efforts to build a gold-backed alternative to the US dollar. The speaker notes a disappearance of new large gold discoveries, despite contrary reports, suggesting increased gold hoarding and a potential return to gold as a global monetary reserve asset after a 50+ year hiatus.

IV. Gold – Technical Analysis & Future Outlook

Despite a recent volatile week, gold has bounced back, closing at the second-highest weekly level ever, less than $30 from its weekly high. The speaker emphasizes the importance of the 50-day moving average as a key indicator in bull markets. Gold has reclaimed its price above this average, which has acted as a reliable support level since the 2024 breakout. The futures price of gold leading the spot price indicates speculative money has been flushed out. Short sales volume on gold ETFs has also crashed.

He predicts a potential period of consolidation between $4,500 and the low $5,000s between now and the April Federal Reserve meeting, potentially extending into May. However, he believes the bottom for gold is likely in, though he cannot guarantee it. Recent candlestick patterns – a bearish topping tail and a bullish bottoming tail – suggest support around the 50-day moving average.

V. Silver – Comex, Demand & Technical Challenges

The silver market is more complex. There is significant concern regarding the COMX (US silver marketplace) potentially being unable to fulfill contracts in March, with 380 million ounces demanded versus only 105 million available for delivery. While most contracts are settled with cash or rolled over, 15-20% may request physical delivery, potentially removing 57-76 million ounces from COMX vaults. This situation is leading some banks to encourage buying the dip in gold, but not silver, due to the stress in the physical silver market.

Demand for silver is being driven by industrial applications, as highlighted by a SPAT silver demand chart. This could lead to a price turnaround as soon as March or April if parties unable to secure silver from COMX seek alternative sources. Asia is a major driver of silver price action, with sell-offs often occurring during American trading hours. Volatility is expected during the Chinese New Year holiday (February 16-23) due to temporary market closures in several Asian countries.

Technically, silver remains uncertain, even though fundamentals suggest $121/ounce wasn’t the peak. The $71/ounce level is considered a strong support, supported by the performance of silver miners. However, a return to $54.50/ounce during the Lunar New Year holiday is possible. The speaker is maintaining some cash to capitalize on a larger pullback if it occurs. Bets against silver on the PSLV ETF have dropped, and the price backwardation has decreased, suggesting speculators have largely exited the market. He anticipates a retest and breakout above $120/ounce potentially taking 5-6 months, similar to the recovery pattern observed in copper.

VI. Actionable Insights & Recommendations

• Dollar Cost Averaging: The speaker is actively dollar-cost averaging into metals and encourages viewers to consider doing the same during the pullback.
• Summit Metals: He promotes Summit Metals (summitmetals.com) as a reliable source for purchasing physical metals.
• Land of Land: He mentions Land of Land (landofland.com) as a resource for investing in physical assets like land, offering a discount with the code "bald guy."
• Preparation: He urges viewers to be prepared for further volatility and to remain on a consistent investment schedule.

Conclusion:

Despite recent market volatility, the fundamental outlook for gold and silver remains positive. While short-term consolidation and potential pullbacks are possible, particularly for silver, the long-term drivers – a weakening US dollar, central bank demand, and increasing industrial use – suggest continued upside potential. The speaker emphasizes the importance of staying informed, revisiting investment rationale, and taking advantage of opportunities during pullbacks. He cautions against expecting a quick and easy path to new highs, but remains optimistic about the future of precious metals.