What would a shift to the right mean for Chilean society? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Mandatory Voting: For the first time since 2012, voting in Chile is compulsory, with fines for non-compliance.
• Public Safety Concerns: Rising crime rates and the presence of international criminal gangs are major issues for voters.
• Economic Challenges: High unemployment, particularly among women and youth, and low economic growth are significant concerns.
• Pension System: The pension system is another key issue influencing voter decisions.
• First-Time Voters: Approximately 5 million first-time voters are expected to participate, potentially influencing the election outcome.
• Compulsory Voting Impact: Experts suggest mandatory voting could favor anti-establishment candidates, including the far-right, due to increased participation from young, disengaged, and potentially disgruntled voters.
• Automatic Registration: This is the first presidential election with automatic voter registration.
• Migrant Vote: Migrants, representing 5.6% of the electorate, can vote, with some analysts suggesting they may lean towards right-wing parties.
• Candidate Landscape: Key contenders include center-left candidate Janette Hada (Communist Party) and right-wing candidates Jose Antonio Cast and Johannes Kaiser (far-right), and Evelyn Mate (UDI).
• Shift to the Right: A potential right-wing victory could mark a significant political shift in Chile since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990.
• Parliamentary Elections: Concurrent elections for a new parliament (Senate and lower house) are expected to see strong performance from the right-wing.
• Constitutional Changes: A right-wing majority in Congress could enable constitutional amendments.

Presidential Election in Chile: Key Issues and Candidate Landscape

Chileans are heading to the polls for a presidential election where voting is mandatory for the first time since 2012, with penalties for abstention. The election is characterized by a governing leftist coalition facing a field of right-wing challengers, with public concerns over immigration and crime dominating voter sentiment.

Public Safety and Crime

A significant driver of voter concern is the perceived decline in public safety. The transcript highlights the experience of Luis in La Serena, who narrowly foiled a home burglary, leading to a feeling of insecurity. This sentiment is echoed by the statement, "It's more than a feeling. It's a fact that there's a lack of security for the population." The influx of international criminal gangs, such as Venezuela's Tren de Aragua, has contributed to a rise in crimes like extortion and kidnapping, with over a third of such cases linked to organized crime. This issue has placed public safety at the forefront of the presidential campaign.

Economic Challenges and Unemployment

The economy, particularly unemployment, is another major concern for voters. Constanza Palma, a journalism graduate from 2023, exemplifies the struggle to find employment, having been searching for nearly two years. The unemployment rate reached 8.5% in the third quarter of the current year, with higher rates affecting women and young people. Chile's economic growth is projected at a low 2.5%, a stark contrast to the approximately 7% growth seen in the 1990s. This low growth rate directly impacts employment, and the economy has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment, low economic growth, and the pension system are identified as the primary concerns for voters.

Impact of Mandatory Voting and First-Time Voters

The introduction of mandatory voting is expected to be a decisive factor in this election. Experts suggest that the participation of an additional five to six million people, many of whom are first-time voters, young, or disengaged from politics, could favor anti-establishment options, including the far-right. This is because voters who are compelled to vote and are dissatisfied often express their anger through "disruptive options" rather than supporting incumbent or traditional politicians. The nearly 5 million first-time voters are seen as a potential tipping point. Furthermore, mandatory voting, combined with automatic registration, could lead to the election of the most voted candidate in Chilean history.

Migrant Vote

Migrants, who constitute 5.6% of the electorate, are eligible to vote. While their impact is unclear, some analysts suggest that a significant portion of Venezuelan migrants may reject left-wing parties, potentially benefiting right-wing candidates.

Candidate Profiles and Potential Outcomes

Eight candidates are competing in the first round. Polls indicate that the most likely to advance to a second round are Janette Hada of the Communist Party, representing the center-left, and right-wing contenders Jose Antonio Cast and Johannes Kaiser (far-right). Evelyn Mate is running for the traditional right-wing party, UDI.

• Janette Hada: Has led polls since winning the left primary in June, making history as the first communist to represent a center-left coalition. She previously served as Labor Minister under President Gabriel Boric, advocating for reforms like pension reform. However, she has been trying to distance herself from her party and the current government. While favored in the first round, polls suggest she could lose in a runoff against opposition candidates, particularly Jose Antonio Cast.

• Jose Antonio Cast: The far-right candidate, is considered the favorite in a potential second-round scenario according to pre-election blackout polls.

Shift to the Right and Parliamentary Elections

A right-wing victory in the presidential election, coupled with a strong performance in the concurrent parliamentary elections, would represent a significant political shift in Chile since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship in 1990. The right-wing is expected to perform well in the elections for the Senate and the entire lower house. If the far-right and right-wing secure a 47% majority quorum in Congress, they could potentially enact constitutional changes, which would be highly significant for the country. This potential shift is partly attributed to the high public concern over security and crime, leading some voters to seek more radical proposals.

Conclusion

The upcoming Chilean presidential election is shaped by a confluence of factors including mandatory voting, heightened concerns over public safety and crime, economic stagnation, and a potential shift towards right-wing politics. The participation of a large bloc of first-time voters and the influence of the migrant vote add further complexity to the electoral landscape. The outcome could mark a significant departure from Chile's recent political trajectory, with potential implications for constitutional reform.