What will give Ukraine the edge? Fiber-optic drones or long-range cruise missiles? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Long-range cruise missile "Flamingo"
• Missile production capabilities and limitations
• Warhead size and range comparison with Russian counterparts
• Component sourcing and manufacturing challenges
• Protection of manufacturing facilities
• Air defense strategies against cruise missiles
• Drone warfare and fiber optic drones
• Advantages and disadvantages of fiber optic drones
• Electronic warfare and jamming resistance
• Countermeasures and adaptation in drone technology
• Scaling production of innovations
• Laser weapons as potential countermeasures

Flamingo Missile System

• Potential Breakthrough: Ukraine announced testing of its own long-range cruise missile, potentially a major breakthrough in its weapons production program.
• Range: President Zelensky claims the missile can travel 3,000 km. Moscow is less than 500 km from the Ukrainian border.
• Name: The missile is known as "Flamingo" due to early prototypes being tinted pink.
• Production Timeline: Zelensky stated production could start in February.
• Analyst Perspective (Marina Miron):
  • Cautious about calling it a "game changer," emphasizing the need to see production numbers.
  • Similar to Millennia Group's FP5 missile, which had a potential production rate of 50 per month.
  • Ukrainian Firepoint, the designer, claims a potential production rate of one per day, increasing to seven per day.
  • Importance of usage platform and strategy.
  • Revealing characteristics might be more for show than military advantage.
• Warhead and Size: The missile has a powerful 1,000 kg warhead and weighs about six tons.
• Russian Counterparts: Russia lacks comparable warhead size with that range.
• Manufacturing Challenges:
  • Requires components, microelectronics, and a turbojet engine.
  • Concerns about producing a critical mass of missiles.
  • Potential Russian targeting of production sites.
  • Importance of protecting assets and manufacturing facilities.
  • Potential increase in Russian air defenses (ground-based and air-based).
• Vulnerability: Despite maneuverability, its size makes it detectable and potentially shot down.
• Turbojet Engine: Ukraine needs turbojet engines to power the missile, which is supposed to remain in the air for about 4 hours.

Drone Warfare and Fiber Optic Drones

• Drone Warfare Significance: Ukraine is often referred to as the first large-scale drone war.
• Russian Initial Deployment: Russia was first to deploy fiber optic drones, resistant to jamming and nearly invisible.
• Ukrainian Adoption: Ukrainian brigades are now also using fiber optic drones.
• Advantages of Fiber Optic Drones:
  • Resistant to jamming.
  • Video and control signals are maintained regardless of terrain.
  • Safer compared to radio control drones.
• Disadvantages of Fiber Optic Drones:
  • Fiber optic cable can snap if caught or twisted.
  • Cable can be visible in sunlight, especially at dawn or sunset, leading back to the operator.
• Operational Use:
  • Used to identify machine gun nests, ammunition depots, and unexpected enemy positions.
  • Can fly into structures, making building searches safer.
• Example: A Ukrainian unit operating drones from a basement was attacked after their location was compromised.
• Tactical Adaptations: Small, fast-moving assault groups are replacing large armored attacks to avoid detection.
• Countermeasures: Hunted down with kamikaze drones and heavy bombers.
• Innovation and Scaling:
  • Importance of innovating fast and gaining the initiative.
  • Critical to scale production of innovations before the enemy adapts.
• Ukrainian Ingenuity: Ukrainians have been faster in recognizing the importance of drones and adapting their industry.
• Russian Response: Russians have been more reactive, developing countermeasures like electronic warfare devices and physical protection for tanks.
• Fiber Optic Drones as "End of Electronic Warfare?": Fiber optic drones are seen as potentially ending electronic warfare due to their resistance to jamming.
• Emerging Countermeasures:
  • Russia is exploring the use of laser weapons.
  • Ukraine has demonstrated a laser.
• Critical Mass: The effectiveness of new drones or weapons depends on producing a critical mass.

Conclusion

The discussion highlights Ukraine's efforts to enhance its military capabilities through domestic weapons production and drone technology. While the "Flamingo" missile presents a potential strategic advantage, challenges remain in mass production and protection of manufacturing facilities. Similarly, the adoption of fiber optic drones offers benefits in electronic warfare, but vulnerabilities and potential countermeasures necessitate continuous innovation and adaptation. The key takeaway is that success in this conflict hinges not only on technological advancements but also on the ability to scale production and proactively counter evolving threats.